Year: 2016

Ghostbusters Box Office Prediction

One of the biggest summer 2016 mysteries will be answered next weekend when the Ghostbusters reboot hits theaters. 32 years after the original became a smash hit (with a less beloved sequel that followed five years later), the Columbia Pictures property is a hopeful franchise yet again. This follows years (decades in fact) of rumors about the comedic paranormal team making a return to the big screen. A third go round with the original cast never materialized, so the series has undergone a makeover with Paul Feig taking over directorial duties and a female ghostbustin’ cast donning the iconic uniforms.

Like they did in 1984 – the Ghostbusters have a strong “Saturday Night Live” connection consisting of frequent host Melissa McCarthy and current and former cast members Kristin Wiig, Kate McKinnon, and Leslie Jones. Chris Hemsworth takes over secretarial duties in the part made famous by Annie Potts. OG ‘Busters Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, and Ernie Hudson (along with Sigourney Weaver and Potts) are said to cameo.

This is the fourth collaboration between Feig/McCarthy. They’re previous pics (Bridesmaids, Heat, Spy) have grossed $169M, $159M, and $110M, respectively. This is a whole new ball game that comes with a different set of expectations, however. For starters – the budget is a reported $154 million with a studio likely hoping for a domestic haul in the $200 million range.

That could be a challenge. The word of mouth for Ghostbusters has not been overwhelmingly positive and underwhelming trailers had a little something to do with it.  The first trailer even earned headlines for being the most disliked trailer in YouTube’s history. Buzz aside, it’s been marketed relentlessly in recent weeks.

The release poses a whole bunch of questions that won’t be answered until its opening: will younger viewers turn out for a franchise that’s laid dormant for nearly 30 years? Will the negative trailer reaction greatly hinder its potential? If and when the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man returns, is it the same one from the original or his offspring?

Ghostbusters, even with the lengthy time passed between entries, is still a massive brand name and the name alone should get it to a $40 million opening. How much above that number seems to be the real question. I’ll predict that it falls just under $50M in the opening weekend. How it plays out in subsequent weekends will answer the question for the studio as to whether those grosses make them feel good.

Ghostbusters opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Infiltrator prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/the-infiltrator-box-office-prediction/

 

Box Office Predictions: July 8-10

The second weekend of July brings us two new entries as the animated The Secret Life of Pets and raunchy comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates both debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/29/the-secret-life-of-pets-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/29/mike-and-dave-need-wedding-dates-box-office-prediction/

I have Pets slated to land the 11th highest animated premiere of all time, which will easily be enough to dominate the weekend and end the three-week reign of Dory, which should fall to 2nd.

As for Mike and Dave, I’m anticipating a rather soft opening in the low teens – which should mean it battling for anywhere between fourth and sixth with holdovers The Purge: Election Year (which should suffer a large decline in its second frame after a healthy debut) and The BFG (which hopes to have a somewhat meager decline after a very disappointing opening). My estimates have it holding a slight edge over the holdovers. The Legend of Tarzan, which greatly exceeded the expectations of most, should have third place to itself.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $73.7 million

2. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

5. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (July 1-4)

As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had a three peat at #1 over the long Fourth of July weekend. The pic (which seems well on its way to becoming summer 2016’s biggest earner) took in $41.8 million and $51.4 million over the traditional three-day and holiday four-day weekend, respectively. This topped my predictions of $35.6M and $44M to bring Dory to an overall $381 million – just a bit over $20M under where the current season champ Captain America: Civil War sits.

One of the big stories of the weekend was the larger than expected haul for The Legend of Tarzan. Despite mostly negative reviews and prognostications that it would not perform well, it opened with $38.5 million (three-day) and $46.5 million (four-day), swinging well past my $17.5M and $22M estimates. While Warner Bros. can take solace in its bigger than anticipated debut, its $180M budget still leaves in question its eventual profitability or, most importantly, hopes for a franchise. The weekends ahead and overseas earnings may determine whether Tarzan and Jane come back for a repeat engagement.

Audiences showed they’re still into one particular horror franchise as The Purge: Election Year opened with $31.5 million (3 day) and $36.1 million (4 day) – ahead of my $21.7M and $25.5M forecast. While it will almost certainly suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2, the series is a cash cow for Universal and I would expect a fourth purge to be coming your way soon.

While both of the aforementioned newcomers over performed, the same cannot be said of Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Despite mostly positive reviews, grosses were not big or friendly as this giant disappointment made $18.7 million (3 day) and $22.7 million (4 day) out of the gate. This is under my $26.6M and $33.2M projections.

Independence Day: Resurgence rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame and did not experience a bump due to its namesake holiday weekend. The sequel continued to disappoint with $16.7 million (3 day) and $21.6 million (4 day), just under my $17.8M and $22.8M projections for a ten-day total of just $77 million.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Conjuring 2 Movie Review

The stars of The Conjuring 2 are not found in the names of Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga, who return here as real life paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. It’s not found in the name of its director, James Wan, who has proven himself repeatedly as someone who knows how to craft a suspenseful sequence.

No, the stars of The Conjuring 2 can be found by going over to IMDB and looking up the various names that make up its sound department. The biggest hair rising moments in the 2013 original and this sequel are due to them. Every creak of the steps. Each movement of an empty rocking chair. The turns of a creepy zoetrope. One difference this time around – the first Conjuring simply felt a little fresher upon its release.

After a prologue that touches on the Amityville case and the Warren’s involvement, our sequel takes place six years after the events in that Rhode Island farmhouse. That brings us to 1977 and across the pond to England. We have another family – a poor single mom (Frances O’Connor) and her four children being terrorized by their house dwelling demon. One in particular, 11 year old Janet (Madison Wolfe), gets the brunt of the possession.

Enter the Warrens, who have their doubts regarding the case’s authenticity. They eventually figure out that this lower class family doesn’t have a 2016 level sound effects department at their disposal. There’s a creepy nun that doesn’t quite match the heebie jeebie level of Annabelle in the original, but comes close from time to time. Speaking of, the nun is getting her own spin-off feature just like Annabelle did. Let’s hope the sister’s act is more worthwhile than the doll’s.

Nothing here really equals what made part 1 such an unexpected treat. A team as talented as this will make us jump up in our seats at least a few times and that occurs here. And the added benefit that this is all real (allegedly) doesn’t hurt. True story or not, despite it being directed better than most other genre entries and that aforementioned ace sound team – The Conjuring 2 can’t help but occasionally suffer from a been there, heard that scary sound effect before feeling.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: The Infiltrator

On July 13, The Infiltrator hits theaters and reviews for the 1980s set true life drug tale began surfacing this week. The pic tells the story of a U.S. customs agent who goes undercover in Pablo Escobar’s massive drug empire. Bryan Cranston plays the title character. Brad Furman (who made The Lincoln Lawyer) directs and costars include Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan.

Reviews have been mostly positive – yet it stands little chance at recognition for Best Picture or for any of its supporting players. Where it could infiltrate Oscar voting is in Best Actor and, if so, it would be Cranston’s second nomination in a row. In 2015, the Breaking Bad performer received his first nod for Trumbo, despite some mixed reviews and weak box office.

Critics have been quick to point out that Cranston’s work here is the brightest spot. It also may not hurt that the actor should receive Emmy attention for his role as President Lyndon Johnson in All the Way.

We’ll see how the Actor race plays out into the fall, but Cranston could be one to watch as The Infiltrator is released in a week and a half.

 

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates Box Office Prediction

Next Friday brings us Zac Efron’s third raunchy comedy of the year after Dirty Grandpa and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. Neither one of them did particularly well and I’m not convinced that will change here with Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates. The R rated rom com costars Adam DeVine and Anna Kendrick (who made both Pitch Perfect features together) and Audrey Plaza (seen with Efron in Dirty Grandpa).

The pic could benefit from really being the only straight up comedy out there in the marketplace besides Central Intelligence (which will be winding down in weekend #4). Having said that, its best hope might be falling somewhere in between Neighbors 2‘s $21 million opening and Grandpa‘s $11 million start. The summer release slot should at least get it slightly above the latter, which premiered in the January dead zone. I expect a so-so debut while Mike and Dave hope for a more happily ever after existence on the small screen.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million

For my The Secret Life of Pets prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/29/the-secret-life-of-pets-box-office-prediction/

 

The Secret Life of Pets Box Office Prediction

Last year, Universal Pictures animation division had a lovely summer when Minions opened to $115 million with an eventual $336 million gross. The studio is hoping that luck strikes again with The Secret Life of Pets, out next Friday. The 3D animated tale features a voice cast led by Louis C.K., Eric Stonestreet, Kevin Hart, Albert Brooks (pulling double duty this summer with Pixar’s smash Finding Dory), and many others.

Reviews have been kind as it stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. Trailers and TV spots have been solid and it’s likely that plenty of their kids and their parents will tune in. One factor that could prevent it from topping – say – the $75 million opening of Zootopia earlier this year is the competition factor. While Finding Dory will be in its fourth week and slowing down, it should still get some repeat business. Spielberg’s The BFG will be in its second weekend. Still, I think it’ll come darn close.

That said, I expect Pets to fall somewhere in the range of $65-$75 million, which is a pretty common debut for a high-profile animated feature. The 9th through 19th top animated premieres have all started out with those numbers. My prediction puts it right outside the top ten at #11 – right between The Simpsons Movie and Shrek Forever After. 

The Secret Life of Pets opening weekend prediction: $73.7 million

For my Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/29/mike-and-dave-need-wedding-dates-box-office-prediction/

Zootopia Movie Review

Disney’s Zootopia might be a kids animated pic, but as the studio has proven over and over  again (especially with certain Pixar entries) – there are important adult themes at play here. These are mainly focused on not letting fear and prejudice overcome our diversity and the betterment of society. If that sounds like a message we may need in 2016, your animal instincts are correct.

Zootopia is a gorgeously drawn land in which all animals live in harmony. Well, mostly harmony. There’s still crime in the world and that leads precocious bunny Judy Hopps (voiced by Ginnifer Goodwin) to dream of being a police officer for the ZPD. She would be the first of her kind to join the force as it’s made up of “predator” animals. Those predators make up just a fraction of the population as opposed to the “prey”. And it’s the pre judgment of these predators that serves as the pic’s dramatic through line.

Hopps is determined to prove history wrong in her new job, but her first lowly assignment is parking meter duty. Wouldn’t you know, however, that the assignment puts her smack dab in the middle of a big case where various animals are going missing? She soon teams with petty con artist Nick Wilde (Jason Bateman) and their adventures bring them to various sectors of our title like the Rainforest District and Little Rodentia (which is adorable).

The clever plot from screenwriters Jared Bush and Phil Johnston offers some genuine surprises as it unfolds. There’s political corruption and there’s well constructed action sequences that we’ve seen in many detective tales (or should we say detective tail here?). We also have some bits that will make parents laugh as much as their little ones. The sloth scene/DMV scene is pretty genius. There’s even a nice Breaking Bad reference for the old folks.

Even if Zootopia never completely reaches the heights of the studio’s masterpieces, it comes darn close a lot of the time. You’ll be happy kids receive its worthy message of individuality and perseverance while being howlingly entertained. Maybe its message is one the grown ups should pay attention to as well.

***1/2 (out of four)

 

Box Office Predictions: July 1-4

The Fourth of July weekend is here at the box office as three new titles make their debuts over the four day frame: Steven Spielberg’s The BFG, horror three-quel The Purge: Election Year, and adventure pic The Legend of Tarzan. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-bfg-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-purge-election-year-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-legend-of-tarzan-box-office-prediction/

While I have all three earning over $20 million over the long weekend, I don’t expect any of them will manage to top the third weekend of Finding Dory. My estimates reflect a belief that BFG will have a so-so opening, Purge a fairly healthy one albeit under its predecessors, and Tarzan a rather disastrous one.

As for Independence Day: Resurgence in its sophomore weekend, one might think it could hold up well due to… you know, it being Independence Day weekend. I’m not so sure. It had a very lackluster roll out (more on that below) and its weak B Cinemascore grade indicates a rough road ahead.

And with that, my top five predictions (including three and four day projections) for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Friday to Monday)

2. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.8 million (Friday to Monday)

5. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JUNE 24-26)

Finding Dory had no problem whatsoever swimming atop the charts as it grossed $72.9 million in weekend #2, just above my $69.8M projection. The Pixar smash has earned $286 million thus far.

20 years ago, Independence Day ruled the summer of 1996. Its long gestating sequel Resurgence? Not so much as it premiered to just $41 million, way below my $63.5M estimate. Here is yet another summer example of a sequel performing well below expectations and this one classifies as a bonafide bomb.

Central Intelligence held up well in its sophomore weekend with $18.2 million for third, ahead of my $15.2M prediction for a two week total of $69 million.

Blake Lively had a nice weekend as her shark tale The Shallows came in well above expectations at #4 with $16.8 million – lapping my $10.4M forecast. Considering its budget is just a reported $17 million, this is a nice size hit for Mrs. Deadpool.

The Conjuring 2 was fifth with $7.7 million for an $86 million tally. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because the news was not so good for Matthew McConaughey as his critically panned Civil War drama Free State of Jones stalled with $7.5 million in sixth, under my $12.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Summer 2006: The Top Ten Hits and More

Last week, I brought you top ten summer movies – along with other notable pics and flops – of 1996. Now it’s time to recount what was before our collective eyeballs 10 summers ago in 2006.

As I do with these lists, we’ll count down the top ten and then mention some others that made their mark, both positively and negatively.

10. The Devil Wears Prada

Domestic Gross: $124 million

Meryl Streep received her 267th Oscar nomination (or something like that) for this hit comedy which also helped break Anne Hathaway out of Princess Diaries mode.

9. Mission: Impossible III

Domestic Gross: $134 million

It may be in the top ten, but part 3 of this franchise that has now five entries is by far the lowest grosser (making $81 million less than part 2). This did give J.J. Abrams his first big directorial break and, as you may know, he’s moved forward with some other well-known franchises.

8. Click

Domestic Gross: $137 million

10 years later, he may be relegated to Netflix territory, but the critically drubbed Click gave us Adam Sandler when he still had no problem reaching the century club and then some.

7. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

Domestic Gross: $148 million

Of the five Will Ferrell/Adam McKay collaborations, Ricky still stands as the highest grosser of them all. It’s first, not last.

6. Over the Hedge

Domestic Gross: $155 million

Dreamworks animated raccoon tale was a nice hit, even if it didn’t approach Shrek territory.

5. Superman Returns

Domestic Gross: $200 million

Coming nearly 20 years after the latest Supes flick, Superman Returns was Bryan Singer’s eagerly awaited reboot of the franchise. Yet its $200 million domestic gross was definitely on the lower end of expectations and critics and audiences were a bit disappointed. Seven years later, it would be rebooted once again with Man of Steel.

4. The Da Vinci Code

Domestic Gross: $217 million

Tom Hanks and Ron Howard teamed up for this adaptation of Dan Brown’s mega-selling novel and box office returns were heavenly, even if critics were quite mixed. Two sequels – 2011’s Angels & Demons and this fall’s Inferno – followed.

3. X-Men: The Last Stand

Domestic Gross: $234 million

Brett Ratner took over this franchise from Bryan Singer (busy with Superman) for film #3. Its reputation now is in tatters and is widely considered a mediocre experience at best. That said, it’s the highest grossing X pic domestically of all time – a full $1 million ahead of 2014’s Days of Future Past.

2. Cars

Domestic Gross: $244 million

It isn’t considered one of the greatest Pixar pics, but it still managed to pace second in summer 2006. The Paul Newman voiced effort would spawn two sequels – one in 2011 and the next coming in summer 2017.

  1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Domestic Gross: $423 million

This summer features a Johnny Depp sequel flop (Alice Through the Looking Glass), but 10 years ago – he was the king of the summer with this follow-up to 2003’s The Curse of the Black Pearl. It easily blew all competition away.

And now for some other notable movies of the season:

Little Miss Sunshine

Domestic Gross: $59 million

This little indie comedy/drama became a critics darling and struck a chord with audiences and Oscar voters. It was nominated for Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Abigail Breslin), and gave Alan Arkin a win in Supporting Actor.

An Inconvenient Truth

Domestic Gross: $24 million

Former Vice-President Al Gore’s feature-length slideshow on global warming was a massive hit as documentaries go (it currently stands at 10th all-time).

And now for the flops of summer ’06:

Miami Vice

Domestic Gross: $63 million

Based on the iconic 80s cop show and directed by its creator Michael Mann, Miami Vice suffered from a reported troubled production and grossed less than half of its $135 million budget.

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

Domestic Gross: $62 million

This is the one and only example of a Furious flick being listed as a flop as the series would majorly rebound when Paul Walker and Vin Diesel returned for part 4 a few years later.

Poseidon

Domestic Gross: $60 million

Audiences didn’t get on board for director Wolfgang Peterson’s remake of 1972’s The Poseidon Adventure, grossing just $60 million domestically compared to its $160 million budget.

Lady in the Water

Domestic Gross: $42 million

This is when it really started to go downhill for M. Night Shyamalan. Critics ridiculed it and it broke his streak of four hits in a row (The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs, The Village).

Snakes on a Plane

Domestic Gross: $34 million

The trailer got all kinds of publicity with Samuel L. Jackson expressing his displeasure at what was going on in the title. That buzz didn’t end up translating into much, however.

The Wicker Man

Domestic Gross: $23 million

OK, it’s another Nic Cage bomb, but it would gain notoriety later for this gem of a clip…

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Next summer, you can be sure I’ll be bringing you a recap of summers 1997 and 2007!

The Legend of Tarzan Box Office Prediction

Remember three summers ago when the mega-budgeted The Lone Ranger made just $29 million in its first weekend and was a huge disappointment? I give you what could be this year’s Ranger: Warner Bros The Legend of Tarzan, which swings into theaters over July 4th weekend with an estimated $180 million budget. I’m not convinced it’ll reach half its budget domestically when all is said and done.

Based on the iconic character created by Edgar Rice Burroughs, Tarzan is directed by David Yates – the man responsible for the last four Harry Potter pics and this fall’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Alexander Sarsgard is in the title role with Margot Robbie as Jane and Samuel L. Jackson, Christoph Waltz, Djimon Hounsou, and Jim Broadbent among the supporting players.

The biggest hurdle here could be the considerable competition for a family audience. Finding Dory will still be earning a lot in weekend #3 and Steven Spielberg’s The BFG opens the same day. There just doesn’t seem to be much excitement for this and it could get a bit lost in the shuffle. Luckily for Yates, his Beasts project is likely to be a smash. Luckily for Robbie, she’s a just over a month away from Suicide Squad probably doing bang-up business.

I’ll predict a three-day debut in the high teens and a low 20s four-day for the holiday frame. Considering its price tag, that’s bad news at Warner.

The Legend of Tarzan opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The BFG prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-bfg-box-office-prediction/

For my The Purge: Election Year prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-purge-election-year-box-office-prediction/