Box Office Predictions: July 29-31

**Blogger’s Note: Mid-week numbers for NERVE has significantly upgraded my estimate to $10.8M for Friday to Sunday and $16.3M for Wednesday to Sunday. These changes are reflected in the breakdown for the top 10 below. – TT

***Blogger’s note 2 (07/28/16) Cafe Society opening on less screens that I anticipated. My $3.8M Estimate now revised down to $2.3M, outside of top ten.

The final weekend of July comes at us with three new debuts: Matt Damon’s return as Jason Bourne, raunchy comedy Bad Moms, and techno thriller Nerve. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/jason-bourne-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/bad-moms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/nerve-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Mr. Bourne should have no trouble ruling the charts and I have the fifth franchise entry (and first with Damon in nearly a decade) falling just short of the series high debut of $69 million for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum. 

It’s after that where things get a little more interesting. The battle for second place could be a close one as I have Bad Moms posting a very solid debut that may put it in close proximity to the second weekend of current champ Star Trek Beyond. 

As for the rest of the top five, The Secret Life of Pets should easily hold the fourth spot while a three-way battle for #5 should be fought between Ghostbusters, Lights Out, and Ice Age: Collision Course (all of which posted similar grosses this past weekend). I’m estimating Ghostbusters will have the smallest decline of the trio and manage to stay put at the five spot.

Then there’s Nerve, which opens Wednesday. I’m not expecting much out of it – so much so that I’m placing it ninth after Finding Dory in 8th.

AND we have another title that count enter the top ten this weekend as Woody Allen’s Cafe Society expands nationwide. It’s been performing well in limited release and could have a decent roll out elsewhere. There’s no theater count yet, which makes this estimate a bit tricky – but if it opens on around 900 screens (par for the course for Woody pics), I’ll put it at $3.8 million. That would be good for 10th place just ahead of The Legend of Tarzan. 

So we shall expand my typical top 5 predictions and go with a top 10 for this weekend:

1. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $67.6 million

2. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $26 million

4. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

6. Nerve

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. Lights Out

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

8. Ice Age: Collision Course

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

10. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (July 22-24)

As expected, Star Trek Beyond easily topped the box office with $59.2 million, reaching beyond my $53.4M prediction. Both its predecessors in the current iteration of the franchise made over $70M for their starts, but this is still a respectable showing and should be enough to see the series chugging along.

The Secret Life of Pets slipped to second after two weeks on top with $29.6 million, above my $24.9M projection. The smash hit animated feature has amassed $260M so far and surprised all by accomplishing more in weekend 3 than Ice Age: Collision Course in weekend 1 (more on that below).

Perhaps the brightest spot of the weekend belonged to third place Lights Out, the critically acclaimed micro budgeted horror flick which earned $21.6 million. That’s a quadrupling of its $5 million price tag and a doubling of my meager $10.2 million projection. Good reviews and James Wan’s participation clearly helped.

The aforementioned Ice Age: Collision Course proved to be a franchise on thin ice as family audiences mostly rejected it. It grossed $21.3 million for fourth place (below my $28.3M estimate) for an embarrassing franchise low by a lot – the previous low was the 2002 original’s $46.3M. Ouch.

Ghostbusters rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $21 million (just above my $19.8M forecast) for an $86 million total.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…