Box Office Predictions: July 22-24

Three new titles hit screens this weekend as sequels Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age: Collision Course look to battle for the top spot with low-budget horror pic Lights Out opening as well. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/13/star-trek-beyond-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/14/ice-age-collision-course-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/15/lights-out-box-office-prediction/

My estimates have both sequels not bringing in what their predecessors managed. I have Beyond slated to debut about 25% lower than 2013’s Star Trek Into Darkness with Collision Course premiering a bit below 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift. That would give Beyond the edge to open at #1 with Course placing second. My just over double digits projections for Lights Out would put it in fifth.

As for holdovers, two-week champ The Secret Life of Pets should dip to third. Many eyes will be on the second weekend of Ghostbusters, which pretty much debuted in line with expectations (more on that below). However, it may be its second week performance that helps determine its true viability as a budding franchise. I have it losing more than half its audience.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $53.4 million

2. Ice Age: Collision Course

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

5. Lights Out

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

Box Office Results (July 15-17)

Moviegoers called up The Secret Life of Pets and not the Ghostbusters for their most favored title this weekend as the animated mega-hit took in $50.8 million (under my $57.6M prediction) for a ten-day tally of $203M.

The Ghostbusters, as mentioned, premiered in line with most expectations at $46 million – not quite reaching my $47.3M projection. The reboot of the beloved 80s franchise may need a solid second weekend to justify its existence as a franchise. I have my doubts.

The Legend of Tarzan was third, grossing $11.4 million (I was close with $11.1M) and crossing the century mark for a $103M total.

Finding Dory took fourth with $11.2 million. My guess? $11.2M! The Pixar smash and biggest hit of the year thus far has amassed $445M.

Sophomoric comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates rounded out the top five in its sophomore weekend with $7.6 million (a bit under my $8.9M estimate) for a total of $31M.

Finally, the Bryan Cranston crime thriller The Infiltrator landed in seventh place – debuting with $5.3 million over the traditional weekend and $6.7 million since its Wednesday. This just outpaced my respective predictions of $4.6M and $6.1M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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2 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: July 22-24

  1. Yo Todd!

    Alright I’m about all sequeled out at this point…

    Star Trek: Beyond – $58.6M
    Ice Age: Collision Course – $27.9M
    Lights Out – $15.5M

    I don’t know what’s worse…then endless number of sequels or reboots, or the election 😉

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