Box Office Predictions: May 6-8

Disney and Marvel once again stake claim to the first weekend of May’s box office spot as they have for six of the last eight years when Captain America: Civil War invades theaters this weekend. It is the first summer movie of the year and it stands an excellent chance at being the biggest of them all. You can read my detailed prediction post on it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/27/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-prediction/

My $205.6 million opening weekend prediction puts it at #4 all-time, just below 2012’s The Avengers at $207M and above last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, which bowed to $191M. The company it finds itself in between is appropriate as Civil War is essentially a third Avengers pic, with Iron Man, Black Widow, Ant-Man, Spider-Man, and more joining Chris Evans’ title character.

As for holdovers, Disney should have no trouble at the #2 position as The Jungle Book will slip there after three weeks on top. Keanu, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Zootopia and Mother’s Day should make up the rest in a tightly bunched formation that I have with all around  $5M.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $205.6 million

2. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

3. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Keanu

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 14%)

6. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)’

As expected, Disney’s The Jungle Book slayed its competitors for a third weekend on top with $43.7 million (higher than my $37.9M estimate) for a grand total of $253M. The Mouse Factory’s mega-hit will finally be replaced by another Mouse Factory mega-hit this weekend.

And now for the non mega-hits. The Huntsman Winter’s Way remained in second with $9.6 million for a tepid total of $34M. It did manage to top my $8.1M projection.

Newbies did not fare well. Despite mostly positive reviews, Key and Peele’s comedy Keanu managed just $9.4 million in third, well below my generous $17.6M prediction.

The news was even worse for Mother’s Day (which got scathing reviews) which debuted in fourth with only $8.3 million (I said $14.7M).

Barbershop: The Next Cut rounded out with top five with $6 million – in line with my $6.2M estimate for a three-week take of $44M.

The video game inspired Ratchet & Clank disappointed in seventh with only $4.8 million, just under my $5.2M prediction. That meant Disney’s Zootopia (in weekend #8) was sixth with $5.3 million ($323M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top six.

And that’ll for now, ladies and gentlemen! Until next time…

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One thought on “Box Office Predictions: May 6-8

  1. Yo Todd!

    Alright my friend, now is the time when things get exciting. I love the summer movie box office season!!

    The newest juggernaut in the Marvel Cinematic Universe looks like it could be potentially the biggest and best yet. I don’t think anything is going to touch Episode 7, but I think Civil War is going to be knocking on the door of that #2 spot.

    Captain America: Civil War – $209.2M

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