Box Office Predictions: November 20-22

The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.

The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.

And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $124.2 million

2. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Secret in Their Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (November 13-15)

As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.

Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.

Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.

Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…



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