Box Office Predictions: May 29-31

For the last week of May, we have two more entries into the Summer Box Office Derby: disaster action pic San Andreas starring Dwayne Johnson and the Bradley Cooper/Emma Stone rom com Aloha. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/22/san-andreas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/23/aloha-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Andreas should easily dominate the weekend. The wild card is Aloha, but I have it grossing in the high teens for a fourth place debut. All holdovers will likely experience the typical hefty declines for the post Memorial Day weekend. Current champ Tomorrowland may have the most pronounced dip due to lackluster buzz (more on that below) and I’m predicting all currently released top five dwellers will fall over 50% from the four day holiday frame. It could be quite a tight race for the #2 spot.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million

2. Tomorrowland

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Aloha

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

It was a disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office as Brad Bird’s polarizing Tomorrowland topped the charts with a ho-hum $42.7 million, just under my $44.6M projection. The Disney fantasy has received both mixed reaction from critics and audiences alike and its long term prospects don’t look great.

On the flip side, last week’s champ Pitch Perfect 2 continued its truly magnificent run with $38.3 million over the holiday weekend (above my $32.8M estimate), bringing its two weeks total to $125.7M, nearly double what the original made in its whole domestic run.

Mad Max: Fury Road also held up better in its second weekend with $31.3 million, ahead of my $25.5M prediction. The acclaimed reboot has amassed $94.7M.

Avengers: Age of Ultron took $28.2 million (in line with my $26.6M estimate) and the Marvel title’s four week total stands at $411.4M.

Finally, the horror remake Poltergeist had a fair start with $26.3 million, not quite matching my prediction of $29.3M. Look for it to drop quickly, as most horror titles tend to do.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s