With the Oscars less than a month away – today I begin my picks on who will win in the six major categories at the ceremony. There will be a final round of predictions for all the races – probably two days prior to the telecast. We begin with Best Supporting Actress. Let’s recap the nominees, shall we?
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
The precursor awards have been split among Lawrence and Nyong’o. The Golden Globes, New York Film Critics, and National Society of Film Critics went with Lawrence while the SAG Awards and Critics Choice bestowed Nyong’o with the honor.
Simply put, this race appears to be down to those two ladies. A win for Hawkins, Roberts, or Squibb would be a major upset. Last year, Lawrence won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook and a victory for her here would pull off the rare feat of an actor winning two years in a row. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago with back-to-back wins for Tom Hanks in Philadelphia and Forrest Gump.
American Hustle received nominations in all four acting categories and Lawrence’s inclusion represents the best shot at a win. That said, I believe the slight momentum is on the side of Nyong’o. Her nomination also represents the greatest chance for 12 Years to get a win in the acting races. From a statistics point of view – I’d put it at about 55% Lupita, 45% J-Law at this juncture and we’ll see if that remains the case in my final picks a few weeks from now.
Predicted Winner for Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Next up: Best Supporting Actor Prediction
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 