Tyler Perry leaves Madea aside for Easter next weekend as he directs and writes the psychological thriller Acrimony. The tale of a cheating husband and a vengeful wife stars Taraji P. Henson, Lyriq Bent, Crystle Stewart, and Jazmyn Simon. The Lionsgate release hopes to capitalize on Mr. Perry’s involvement, as well as Ms. Henson, who’s had some successes on the big and small screen.
There are certainly some similar genre comps to put this up against. The trick is figuring out where it will fall. Will it play like Henson’s own No Good Deed from 2014, which debuted to a stellar $24.2 million? Or the $25.6 million achieved by The Perfect Guy in 2015? In 2016, When the Bough Breaks managed $14.2 million. How about some other non-comedic directorial efforts from Perry: $21.6 million opening for Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor or $15.5 million for Good Deeds? On the low end, what about the measly $4.7 million from last year’s Unforgettable?
My hunch is a low to mid teens gross is probably the ticket, just below the gross of Bough.
Acrimony opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
There’s a fatal attraction going on in theaters next weekend as Unforgettable debuts. The thriller stars Katherine Heigl as an ex-wife terrorizing her husband’s new bride (Rosario Dawson). Geoff Stults and Cheryl Ladd costar.
Heigl burst onto the movie scene nearly 10 years ago with mega-hit comedy Knocked Up and proceeded to headline other successful rom coms like 27 Dresses and The Ugly Truth. Since then, her star has been on the wane with lower performing pics and failed TV projects.
Unforgettable stands a shot at being a minor success. These Lifetime type flicks on the big screen have a track record of faring decently. The Boy Next Door with Jennifer Lopez debuted to nearly $15 million. Screen Gems has even slotted a mid September weekend for the past three years with such material and the results have been pleasing: 2014’s No Good Deed ($24.2M opening), The Perfect Guy ($25.8M), and When the Bough Breaks ($14.2M).
If enough females turn out for this, I could envision a premiere in the low double digits/teens to possibly mid teens (that could be stretching it).
Unforgettable opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
This past weekend, all newcomers failed to connect with audiences, but the fourth weekend of September has two openings where their prospects look more solid. They are the Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western remake The Magnificent Seven and Warner Bros animated Storks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
I have Seven slated for the second largest September debut of all time, just behind last year’s Hotel Transylvania 2. As for Storks, I’m predicting a solid second place start.
Sully should fall to third after two weeks on top. As for the aforementioned newbies from last weekend, Bridget Jones’s Baby seems likely to have the smallest decline in its sophomore frame over Blair Witch and Snowden. In fact, while Blair Witch had the highest opening of the fresh titles (which isn’t saying much), I have it primed for a massive drop due to its putrid D+ Cinemascore average.
As far as where the readers think I am with predictions on our two newcomers:
The Magnificent Seven: 36% Too High, 35% Just About Right, 29% Too Low – quite the even split!
Storks: 46% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 18% Too High
In last weekend’s poll, 74% incorrectly (including I) guessed that Blair Witch would be #1 while 26% correctly said Sully.
And with that, let’s do a top six for this weekend:
1. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $47.1 million
2. Storks
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
3. Sully
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. Bridget Jones’s Baby
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. Snowden
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Blair Witch
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 65%)
Box Office Results (September 16-18)
Sully once again landed (the pun is old, I know) safely in first place for the second weekend in a row with $21.6 million – just shy of my $23.3M forecast. The Tom Hanks hit has earned $70M thus far.
The curse of the Blair Witch applied to its dismal box office numbers as the sequel to the 1999 smash hit made just $9.5 million. I originally predicted $27.4 million before revising it down to $22.4M. I should have kept going down further and further. In a year that’s been mighty good for horror, the Witch debut gave us a rare dud. However, keeping things in perspective, it did only cost a measly $5 million to make, so it nearly doubled its budget in three days.
In more underwhelming sequel news – Renee Zellweger’s return to the big screen in her signature role was met with a shrug as Bridget Jones’s Baby earned $8.5 million, under my $12.3M estimate. The third entry in the franchise (and first in 12 years) posted its lowest debut in third, just under the $8.6M of 2004’s Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason.
Oliver Stone’s Snowden was fourth with $8 million, a bit ahead of my $6.8M prediction. This is just an OK showing as mixed reviews and perhaps a distaste for political drama on the big screen contributed to its ambivalent roll out.
Don’t Breathe stayed in the top five with $5.6 million ($75M total). I incorrectly didn’t include it as its drop-off was smaller than I anticipated.
When the Bough Breaks was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million (I said $5.6M). It’s made $22M.
Last and least – the Christian concert doc Hillsong – Let Hope Rise tanked with only $1.3 million – less than half of my $3M projection for an unlucky 13th place showing.
And that will do it for now, friends! Until next time…
The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.
Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.
The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.
As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low
Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High
Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High
**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.
And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Blair Witch
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
2. Sully
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. Bridget Jones’s Baby
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
4. Snowden
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.
The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.
Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.
Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.
Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.
Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
BLOGGER’S UPDATE (09/09/16): I can no longer ignore the strong signals that Sully will top the box office this weekend. I’m not changing my When the Bough Breaks forecast, but am upping Sully from $19.8M to $28.5M.
The second weekend of September brings us four new entries that will likely perform significantly different. There’s the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks collaboration Sully, romantic thriller When the Bough Breaks, horror pic The Disappointments Room and Belgian animated export The Wild Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, there could be a serious battle for the #1 slot between Bough and Sully. The latter debuted to positive reviews over the weekend (75% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The former is a critic proof entity that could follow in the footsteps of September 2014’s No Good Deed and September 2015’s The Perfect Guy with grosses in the low to mid 20s. Meanwhile, I have Sully not quite reaching $20M, though it’ll likely have solid legs in subsequent weekends.
For those reasons, I’m giving Bough the edge to reach the top spot this weekend. I have a feeling there may be those who disagree. As for the other newcomers, I’m expecting wildly disappointing results. Neither The Disappointments Room or The Wild Life seem to have any momentum. My $2.3M and $3.2M estimates for them, respectively, leave them outside the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Sully – 64% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 5% Too High
When the Bough Breaks – 53% Just About Right, 44% Too High, 3% Too Low
The Disappointments Room – 64% Just About Right, 22% Too Low, 14% Too High
The Wild Life – 50% Just About Right, 43% Too Low, 7% Too High
As for holdovers, current two-time champ Don’t Breathe should slip to third with Suicide Squad in fourth. Kubo and Pete’s Dragon are likely to battle for the five spot with similar grosses.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Sully
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
2. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
3. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)
Box Office Results (September 2-5)
It was a typically sluggish Labor Day weekend as two newcomers failed to connect with audiences. The low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe, on the other hand, continued to impress with $19.7 million (above my $16.7M estimate) for a total of $55 million.
Suicide Squad was second once again with $12.6 million (in line with my $12.9M projection) as it crossed the $300M line.
Kubo and the Two Strings was third with $8.7 million (I said $8M) for a $36M gross. The four and five spots were holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five: Pete’s Dragon with $8.4 million ($66M total) and Sausage Party with $6.4 million ($89M total).
As for the aforementioned newcomers… ouch. Romantic drama The Light Between Oceans was sixth with only $6.1 million (well under my $11.3M prediction).
Sci-fi thriller Morgan fared even worse with just $2.5 million for 18th place… less than a fourth of my generous $10.6M forecast.
And that will do it for now, blog readers! Until next time…
Screen Gems has quite a profitable enterprise going for the last two years and will try to keep it up for a third with When the Bough Breaks, opening next weekend. The thriller stars Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Jaz Sinclair and was produced for a mere $13 million.
In 2014, the studio put out the similarly themed No Good Deed. The result was a $24.2 million opening. Last year, it was The Perfect Guy (also featuring Chestnut) and it took in $25.9 million for its start. These romantic potboilers have largely appealed to African-American female audiences over 30 and are pretty much critic proof (Perfect Guy didn’t bother to screen for reviewers).
I don’t see much reason why Bough wouldn’t break out in the same way. In fact, I believe it stands an excellent chance at being #1 next weekend over the Clint Eastwood directed/Tom Hanks starring Sully. A debut in the low to mid 20s looks probable for another Screen Gems cash cow.
When the Bough Breaks opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million
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