**Blogger’s Update (09/14): Two changes to discuss as I’ve revised my See How They Run estimate down from $4.8M to $3.2M and my Pearl estimate up from $2.4M to $3.4M. That changes the dynamic of the top five from what I discussed below.
The Viola Davis led historical action epic The Woman King, Saoirse Ronan and Sam Rockwell in the comedic murder mystery See How They Run, and Ti West’s horror prequel Pearl are the new offerings coming our way this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The Woman King should have no trouble debuting in first place as it’s the only pic that should top double digits. Reviews are solid and this could manage a gross close to $20 million, but I’m hedging and projecting a low teens start.
I’m not anticipating much of the other newcomers. Run has been flying under the radar. Assuming Barbarian has a typically hefty horror sophomore dip (more on its opening below), the crime caper should still manage a second place showing thought it could be awfully close.
As for Pearl, its predecessor X made $4.3 million in its March premiere. I’m thinking the prequel won’t match that. However, even if it snatches $2-3 million, that should be enough to make top five.
Here’s how I see this rather ho-hum mid-September frame playing out:
1. The Woman King
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
2. Barbarian
Predicted Gross: $5 million
3. Pearl
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
4. See How They Run
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Critics enjoyed Barbarian more than audiences though the scary movie landed on the higher end of its range. It opened in first with $10.5 million and that’s ahead of my $7.1 million prediction. The C+ Cinemascore grade doesn’t approach that 92% RT score. Note that its opening weekend matches it reported budget. This’ll be a profitable little venture for 20th Century Studios.
The Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva had a second place opening with $4.5 million, managing to top my $3.2 million estimate. I would expect the debut to be front loaded and for it to drop out of the top five this weekend.
Bullet Train was third with $3.3 million (I said $3.4 million) as it inches closer to nine figures with $92 million.
Top Gun: Maverick (after rising back to first place over Labor Day) was fourth with $3.1 million, under my $4.2 million take. The gargantuan gross is $705 million.
The Invitation rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. With $2.6 million, it’s up to $18 million after three weeks.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $2.6 million (I went with $3 million) to bring its tally to $85 million.
The critics certainly don’t have their knives out for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. This is the eagerly awaited follow-up to Rian Johnson’s 2019 comedic murder mystery which grossed over $300 million worldwide and gave Daniel Craig another franchise. Johnson and Craig are back with a new supporting cast that includes Edward Norton, Janelle Monae, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessicas Henwick, Madelyn Cline, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista.
Slated for select cinemas in November before a December 23rd Netflix bow, Onion has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with reviews saying it’s quite appealing. Some even claim it improves on the original. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
Three years ago, Knives had a sliver of hope to nab a Best Picture nomination, but it never materialized. An Original Screenplay mention was the reward for its success. This time around, it would contend in Adapted Screenplay since it’s based on existing IP. That could happen though let’s see how competitive that race is over the remainder of the year. I suspect if we see a sequel nominated for Best Picture in 2022, it’ll be Top Gun: Maverick and not this… and we still don’t know how solid Avatar: The Way of Water is. As for performances, Monae is being singled out in several write-ups as the MVP. However, Supporting Actress is already starting to looked stacked.
Where Onion could sizzle is at the Golden Globes with a Musical/Comedy Best Motion Picture nod and Best Actor in that category for Craig. That occurred in 2019 and could happen again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Despite some encouraging early word-of-mouth, horror flick Barbarian could be fairly quiet out of the gate as the only wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:
My estimate easily puts it in the top spot, but that’s cold comfort considering I’m projecting a second weekend in a row with no title topping $10 million.
On the more limited front is the Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva. I didn’t do an individual post for it, but the reported 750 venues should limit its potential. With a caveat that this may over perform, I’ll say it manages a fourth place start (though it could just as easily be 2nd or 3rd).
Holdovers Top Gun: Maverick, Bullet Train, and DC League of Super-Pets should fill out the remainder of the high five. Here’s how I see it:
1. Barbarian
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
4. Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (September 2-5)
On its 102nd day of release, Top Gun: Maverick returned to the top spot over a desolate Labor Day weekend with $7.9 million (surpassing my $6.2 million prediction). Tom Cruise’s sequel surpassed Black Panther to become the 5th largest domestic grosser of all time. The total is $701 million. Fifth place is likely where it will stay as #4 is Avatar ($760 million) and it’s got a re-release coming in two weeks before the December sequel.
Bullet Train was second with $7.5 million, ahead of my $6 million projection as it has pulled in $88 million over five weeks. Now might be a good time to mention that National Cinema Day, which priced films for $3 at major chains, probably helped push the numbers up a bit over the holiday.
DC League of Super-Pets was third with $6.7 million (I underplayed it at $4.3 million). The National Cinema Day bump got it to $82 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition added 11 minutes of extra footage and $6.5 million to its considerable coffers. That’s in range with my $7 million guesstimate. Spidey has swung $811 million in the bank.
The Invitation rounded out the top five at $6.1 million (besting my $4.6 million take) for a two-week total of $15 million.
Beast was sixth with $5 million compared to my call of $4.1 million for $26 million overall.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was seventh with $4.5 million and I did not project it. The franchise blockbuster sits at $360 million.
The Jaws re-release was 8th with $3.3 million, on target with my prediction of $3.1 million.
Finally, the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. found no love with $1.7 million for 14th place. I said $2.4 million.
As I always say at the beginning of September on this blog – what a difference a few days makes as Venice is at its midpoint and Telluride occurred over the holiday weekend. The Toronto Film Festival begins Thursday. For the first time, I am thrilled to announce that I will be in attendance and have screenings scheduled for several potential heavy hitters! They include The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Menu, The Wonder, Bros, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and The Good Nurse.
The fall festivals always cause the fortunes of certain pictures to rise and fall. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo received mixed reviews out of Lido and it has dropped out of my predictions in Picture, Director, Actor (Daniel Gimenez Cacho), and Supporting Actress (Griselda Sicillani). On the other hand, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking looks to have solidified its position as a BP hopeful while Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley appear to be the two likeliest nominees from its ensemble. Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have positioned themselves as surefire nominees and potential winners in the lead acting derbies. Tar itself improved its standing in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Empire of Light is no slam dunk for BP, but it’s in the mix and Olivia Colman seems solid in Actress. The Banshees of Inisherin may be Fox Searchlight’s better hope over Empire. It drew a rapturous Venice reaction today and has vaulted into Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay on my chart. Bones and All, despite some gushing reviews, could face challenges to fit into the BP race. Don’t Worry Darling, due to some middling write-ups, is probably toast.
Of course, we know that festivals are not the end all and be all for final verdicts. For example, Armageddon Time from James Gray seemed DOA after a so-so Cannes bow in the summer. Yet when it played Telluride over the weekend, the buzz was stronger. It’s awards heart is beating again – even if faintly.
This will probably be my last update for two weeks as I’ll be a Canadian for a few days. You can bet you’ll see lots of other individual Oscar prediction posts as well as reviews of the aforementioned pictures. When I update in a couple of weeks, I’m anticipating branching out to all races covering feature films. Until then, you can peruse all the movement (and there is definitely a lot of it) below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Whale (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tar (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+9)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (E)
13. She Said (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. White Noise (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Bones and All (PR: 22) (+5)
18. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Till (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Broker (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Living (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Bardo (PR: 4) (-20)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Menu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Taylor Russell, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley (moved to 2023)
Frances McDormand, Women Talking (role not large enough)
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (E)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 14) (+10)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Griselda Sicillani, Bardo
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Strong, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Just like last year, the Marvel Cinematic Universe may land atop the charts over Labor Day weekend. This time around, it’ll be with considerably less money… as in, less than one-tenth of what we witnessed in 2021. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition (with 11 minutes of extra footage) is scheduled for the widest (re)release of the holiday frame.
Steven Spielberg’s OG summer blockbuster Jaws also returns to cinemas. The only true newcomer is the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul,, which is also available on streaming via Peacock.
My detailed prediction posts on each are accessible here:
Let’s start with Jesus as I have its $2.4 million projected Friday-Monday offering potentially falling outside of the top ten. There’s a slight chance it could surprise, but I doubt it.
There’s been a narrative developing for awhile that Top Gun: Maverick could manage to return to first position in its 15th week. During Labor Day, popular holdovers do often expand their gross from the previous frame. I expect that will be the case here. However, I do believe Spidey’s 3000 screens (some IMAX) should allow it to swing back to #1 after it originally debuted last December. This should leave the runner-up spot for Maverick or Bullet Train (they should be close). That’s a far cry from this same period in 2021 when Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings decimated the all-time Labor Day record with $94 million.
Jaws is only on a fraction of the webbed superhero’s venues (about 1200) so the possibilities are limited. My estimate of $3.1 million would probably put it in seventh place.
Current champ The Invitation hardly impressed in its premiere (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade, expect it to be one of the only leftovers that does see diminished returns. It should drop to at least fourth while the five spot could be close between DC League of Super-Pets and Beast.
And with that, let’s do a top 7 outlook and keep in mind these numbers are for the four-day holiday:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition
Predicted Gross: $7 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
6. Beast
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
7. Jaws
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (August 26-28)
I’ll go the obvious route… there weren’t many RSVP’s for YA horror tale The Invitation. This is the first time in 15 months that the #1 pic didn’t manage to make over $10 million. The Invitation stumbled with $6.8 million, below my $8.1 million forecast.
Bullet Train was second with $5.6 million (on target of my $5.5 million call) with an overall take of $78 million.
Top Gun: Maverick was third with $4.7 million (I went with $5.2 million) as the juggernaut has now gathered $691 million. The biggest hit of the year is on a glide path to topple Black Panther ($700 million) next and become the fifth largest domestic earner in history.
Beast had a hefty sophomore drop of 58% for $4.8 million and fourth place. That’s under my $5.7 million prediction. The subpar two-week tally is $20 million.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, as anticipated, plummeted in its second weekend (its genre is extremely front loaded). After a fantastic $21 million start, Hero fell 78% to fifth with $4.6 million (I was more generous at $5 million). After ten days, it’s taken in $30 million stateside.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $4.1 million (I said $4.6 million) for $74 million in its 5 weeks of release.
Finally, George Miller’s Three Thousand Years of Longing was a pricey dud for MGM. The Idris Elba/Tilda Swinton Djinn fantasy, with a reported $60 million budget, opened in 7th with a mere $2.9 million. I thought it could at least manage $4 million. The studio is certainly wishing they hadn’t spent what they did after that performance.
My final Oscar predictions for the month of August could rightfully be called the calm before the storm. That’s because Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about to blow in screenings for several legitimate contenders. And there’s no doubt it will change the forecasts below.
My plan is to do the next update on Labor Day (ten days from now). By that point, there should be reviews and awards buzz out for Venice pics like White Noise, Tar, Bardo, Bones and All, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Don’t Worry Darling, among others. There’s also anything that plays Telluride over the holiday weekend (expect that to potentially include The Son and Women Talking). My next update should be about a week later.
Those next updates will incorporate the lengthy list of Toronto screenings and late Venice leftovers. That list includes Blonde, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, Empire of Light, The Good Nurse, The Menu, The Lost King, The Woman King, Bros, Chevalier, and more. In other words… buckle up because the Oscar picture is going to be in much sharper focus over the next three weeks!
My Best Picture ten remains the same, but I’ve made a change in Director with Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) in over Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
In Best Actress, there’s a new #1 as I’ve vaulted Cate Blanchett (Tar) to the top spot over Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Yeoh spent only a week in first after she replaced Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, who’s now in third position. We will know in a matter of days whether Blanchett’s promotion is warranted courtesy of Venice.
I’ve switched Micheal Ward’s performance in Empire of Light from supporting to lead. Toronto’s fest should shed light on whether that’s the right call. Due to this, Bill Nighy (Living) falls out of my actor quintet. In Supporting Actor, Babylon‘s Brad Pitt is back in the mix since I’ve taken Ward out. In Original Screenplay, I’m switching in Bardo with The Banshees of Inisherin out.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for lots of individualized prediction posts for the pictures playing in Italy, Colorado, and Canada in the coming weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. She Said (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (E)
17. Broker (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Till (PR: 18) (-2)
21. The Menu (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Bones and All (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Living (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (E)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (E)
15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda (moved to 2023)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Harry Styles, My Policeman
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Toby Jones, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Best Actor)
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bros (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)
15. Chevalier (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. She Said (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bones and All (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+1)
For the first time since May of 2021, we may have a box office outing where no picture tops $10 million. We’re in a bit of a late August spiral as the YA centered vampire tale The Invitation and George Miller’s genie saga Three Thousand Years of Longing debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m not expecting much out of either. This isn’t a time when studios typically bring out heavy hitters (though it is worth noting that Universal impressed on this same weekend last year with Candyman‘s $22 million haul). I wouldn’t anticipate the newcomers coming anywhere close to that.
My Invitation estimate would give it to #1 spot while Longing could place anywhere from 2-7. I’m thinking #7 is more probable than second as the Tilda Swinton/Idris Elba fantasy seems to be suffering from a quiet marketing campaign.
The runner-up position could be determined by the sophomore drop of current champ Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, which easily surpassed expectations (more on that below). It’s worth noting that its immediate predecessor Dragon Ball Super: Broly experienced a second frame plummet of nearly 70%. Broly actually premiered on a Wednesday before MLK weekend in 2018. In six days, it took in $22 million (similar to Hero‘s three-day mark). Broly only managed $3 million in weekend #2. I think Hero should surpass that, but don’t be surprised it drops in the low 70s.
If so, Beast could stay in second place if it only loses half its audience. While its B Cinemascore grade isn’t great, the lack of competition could mean it avoids a precipitous fall. Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and DC League of Super-Pets should all hold solidly and that could place them above Longing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 7 looking:
1. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
7. Three Thousand Years of Longing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (August 20-22)
As mentioned, it was a bountiful harvest for Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero as the animated Japanese martial arts fantasy crunched an impressive $21 million. That’s well above my $13.2 million projection. These titles are extremely front loaded so expect a sharp downturn, but that’s a terrific gross and we can anticipate plenty more wide openings for these genre titles.
Idris Elba battled a Beast in the form of a lion and the picture opened in line with most estimates. At $11.5 million (I said $11.3 million), it will hope to match its $36 million budget stateside in coming weeks.
Bullet Train was third with $8 million, rising ahead of my $7 million call. The three-week total is $69 million as it hopes to reach nine figures domestically.
Top Gun: Maverick soared to new heights with $5.9 million, a little under my $6.7 million prediction. In its 13th (!) weekend, Maverick surpassed Avengers: Infinity War to become the 6th largest domestic earner of all time. The tally is $683 million as it looks to top Black Panther‘s $700 million next.
Finally, DC League of Super-Pets rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I went with $5 million). The overall gross after 4 weeks is $67 million.
With the Venice Film Festival less than two weeks away and Toronto and Telluride on its heels, the Oscar races are poised to become clearer quite soon. We are mostly in speculation mode at this juncture, but there’s change afoot in the Actor and Supporting Actor with this latest update.
I have vaulted Bill Nighy (Living) into the top 5 for Best Actor and that removes Adam Driver in White Noise. I’ve struggled with Brad Pitt’s placement in Supporting Actor for Babylon. At this point, it’s not certain whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting. Therefore I have Pitt on the outside looking in for Supporting Actor and that allows The Son‘s Zen McGrath to enter the projected quintet.
While no changes were made in the Picture, Director, the Actress derbies, or screenplay – there’s a new #1 for Best Actress. Since I started my estimates back in April, I’ve had Margot Robbie (Babylon) perched atop the charts. I’m now switching that to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Finally, I’ve dropped David O. Russell’s Amsterdam from contention in all races. The studio’s decision to move it up a month from November to October is something I look at as a bad sign. That’s in addition to it getting no festival screenings, a trailer that didn’t impress, and lingering personal issues and bad press for Mr. Russell.
A final note: at this pre-festival juncture in mid-August of 2021, my predictions yielded seven of the eventual 10 BP contenders.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll likely have one more update prior to August 30th before the festival season is upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (E)
18. Till (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bones and All (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Broker (PR: 20) (E)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Menu (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Woman King (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (E)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Maris Schrader, She Said (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)
11. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Don Cheadle, White Noise
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (E)
13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)
5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Living (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-2)
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M. That puts it in second place instead of first with Dragon Ball rising to first.
Survival thriller Beast with Idris Elba and the animated Japanese fantasy sequel Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will compete for the #1 spot this weekend. It could be a close competition and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I’m projecting that both will manage a low teens opening and I’m giving Beast an ever so slight edge. Either could over perform, but both could also top out in low double digits. As long as neither falls significantly short of expectations, they should place 1-2.
Bullet Train, after two weeks in first, should fall to 3rd or 4th depending on how well Top Gun: Maverick holds. It’s a safe bet that the latter will hold quite solidly so it could be a stiff competition for third with DC League of Super-Pets rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
Brad Pitt and the Bullet Train was #1 again with $13.4 million, just shy of my $14.1 million take. The two-week total is $55 million as it is tracking to come in under $100 million domestically when all is said and done.
In a photo finish for second, Top Gun: Maverick achieved another remarkable feat. Rising from sixth to the runner-up position, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever (and then some) earned $7 million in its 12th outing. I projected a tad lower at $6.2 million. Sitting at $673 million and #7 all-time stateside, it will eventually get to the #5 slot and overtake Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War in the coming days.
DC League of Super-Pets was third and it also made $7 million, in line with my $7.2 million prediction. The animated tale has made $58 million in its three weeks of release.
It was a razor thin margin for 4th and 5th with Thor: Love and Thunder barely surpassing Nope. The former made $5.3 million (I was right there at $5.4 million) as the MCU sequel has rung up $325 million.
Nope was fifth and also did $5.3 million, outpacing my $4.2 million guesstimate. Jordan Peele’s effort has made $107 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was sixth with $5 million. I went with $5.2 million and it’s amassed $343 million.
#7 was Where the Crawdads Sing with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) with a $72 million overall haul.
Bodies Bodies Bodies couldn’t really capitalize on its impressive NY/LA limited rollout last weekend. Expanding wide, it took in $3.2 million for eighth place. I was a bit more optimistic at $4.4 million. While its per screen average was 2nd in the top 10 behind only Train, look for it to fade quickly.
Elvis was ninth with $2.5 million (I said $2.6 million) as the biopic has shook up $141 million.
The climbing thriller Fall debuted in 10th with $2.5 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did come in with better earnings than most prognoses. This includes my own at $1.2 million.
Easter Sunday fell outside of the top ten in 11th with $2.4 million in its sophomore frame (I was on target at $2.5 million). The meager total is $9 million.
Last and least, Diane Keaton’s comedy Mack & Rita was a massive flop in 13th position with $1 million. I gave it too much leeway at $2.3 million. As if that start wasn’t bad enough, it earned a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade.
For my first Oscar analysis in the 8 major categories for the month of August, the ten BP contenders remain the same. However, Everything Everywhere All at Once moves to #2 with Babylon slipping a spot to third. I truly do believe there’s a path for Once to take the top prize next year depending on how the next five months of releases play out.
At the end of July, I vaulted Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans to #1 in BP. Today I’m putting the filmmaker in first with Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle now in second.
While my lead actress and actor picks remain unaltered, there is movement in both supporting derbies. In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Griselda Sicillani (Bardo) are in my projected quintet with Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) falling out. In Supporting Actor, I’m switching Empire of Light costars with Michael Ward making the cut over Colin Firth.
Finally, I’ve taken Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives out of contention in all categories where I previously had it listed as a possibility. If Amazon Prime mounts a campaign later this year, it could find itself back in the mix. I wouldn’t count on it despite its solid reviews.
Expect another update in the next week or two! You can peruse all the movement below:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (E)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Bones and All (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Till (PR: 19) (E)
20. Broker (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Woman King (PR: 24) (E)
25. Amsterdam (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Thirteen Lives
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
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