Paramount is banking on a significant African-American and female audience next weekend for WhatMenWant, a remake of the 2000 blockbuster WhatWomenWant with Mel Gibson and Helen Hunt. As the title suggests, this is a flip of the original with its lead character being able to hear the inner thoughts of the male species. Taraji P. Henson plays her with costars including Aldis Hodge, Tracy Morgan, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Pete Davidson, and Erykah Badu. Adam Shankman, maker of BringingDowntheHouse and ThePacifier, directs.
The gimmicky formula could be a success with its target audience. Its source material was a smash, debuting to $33 million and legging out to $182 million overall. Henson has starred in such high-profile hits as HiddenFigures, NoGoodDeed, and the ThinkLikeaMan pics.
Some of those efforts saw openings in the mid to high 20s and that’s exactly where I see this starting out at.
WhatMenWant opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
**Blogger’s Update (09/27/18): My estimate has risen to $27.6 million to $31.6 million
One of the most dependable comedic actors at the box office teams with one of the hottest newer names when Night School opens next weekend. Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish headline the pic about a group trying to pass their GED exam. Malcolm D. Lee (who just directed Haddish in her breakout Girls Trip) is behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Rob Riggle, Mary Lynn Rajskub, Taran Killam, Romany Malco, and Keith David.
Hart has been a model of consistency in recent years when it comes to high earners. In addition to just coming off the massive blockbuster Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle, he’s had a handful of $30 million plus openers including Think Like a Man, both Ride Along features, Get Hard, and Central Intelligence. The Think Like a Man sequel almost reached $30 million while About Last Night made $25.6 million for its start. The low-end of the spectrum is The Wedding Ringer with $20.6 million. As for Lee and Haddish’s Trip, it took in $31.2 million.
The collaboration of these talents should yield pleasing results and the likely #1 spot over its made competitor – the animated Smallfoot. I’m a little skeptical this reaches $30 million, though it certainly could. A gross in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Night School opening weekend prediction: $31.6 million
Continuing with my series of performers who had a big impact on film this year, part two of six brings us to Kevin Hart.
Not only is he one of the highest grossing stand-up comics around, this year proved he can truly headline at the multiplex as well. The biggest example came in January with the surprise hit buddy cop comedy Ride Along with Ice Cube. The pic amassed a fantastic $134 million gross and was #1 for four weeks. A sequel is already planned for January 2016.
February brought his supporting role in About Last Night which earned a respectable $48 million. In June came his sequel Think Like a Man Too, which topped out at $65 million (less than its predecessor, but still solid considering its $24M budget).
More than anything though, Ride Along made Hart a hot commodity and 2015 should keep the momentum going. January sees the premiere of The Wedding Ringer and in March, he teams up with Will Ferrell in Get Hard.
For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:
There’s just one newcomer entering the multiplex this weekend – but it’s a big one. Transformers: Age of Extinction is expected by many (including this blogger) to post the heftiest opening weekend of 2014 so far. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
My estimate for Extinction is actually a big lower than that of others so we’ll see how I do come Monday of next week. As for holdovers, I’m expecting the current #1 Think Like a Man Too to drop over 50% in its second weekend while 22 Jump Street might not quite lose half its audience in weekend 3. That could definitely mean 22 Jump Street remains second while Man Too drops to third.
DreamWorks animated financial letdown How to Train Your Dragon 2 should be 4th in its third weekend while a battle for fifth could ensue between the second weekend of Jersey Boys and fifth weekend of Maleficent.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $98.6 million
2. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)
3. Think Like a Man Too
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Maleficent
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
6. Jersey Boys
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (June 20-22)
As predicted, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too topped the box office charts out of the gate, but it didn’t match my expectation. It took in $29.4 million, below my $38.2M estimate. The sequel couldn’t match the $33 million opening of its predecessor which was a bit of a surprise. Still, with a meager reported budget of $24 million, Man Too is quite a success.
22 Jump Street dipped to second with $27.4 million, right in line with my $27.3M projection. The Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy sequel has amassed an impressive $109 million in just ten days.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 continued to underperform with $24.7 million in weekend #2, well below my $32 million estimate. The animated flick has not met expectations with $94 million so far. It will probably not match the performance of its predecessor’s $217 million. Most prognosticators figured it would easily surpass that number.
Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys had a muted debut at fourth with $13.3 million – below my generous $18.9M prediction. While the pic received mostly decent reviews, adult audiences treated the Four Seasons biopic with ambivalence. Disney’s Maleficent held up well in its fourth weekend with $12.9 million, outpacing my $10.4M prediction. The Angelina Jolie flick has earned $185 million so far and should blast past $200M shortly.
Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:
Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.
This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Think Like a Man Too
Predicted Gross: $38.2 million
2. How To Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)
3. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Jersey Boys
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
5. Maleficent
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (June 13-15)
Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.
This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.
Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.
Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.
This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.
This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.
With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.
I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.
Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million
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