Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.
Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.
The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.
As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!
We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.
And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?
Best Picture
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Creed
The Danish Girl
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs
Straight Outta Compton
Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)
Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Will Smith, Concussion
Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)
Best Supporting Actress
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)
Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Love and Mercy
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Joy
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Youth
Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Anomalisa
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
The Big Short
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…
A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.
Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).
I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.
The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.
High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.
Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.
As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.
This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!
We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…
Let’s go!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Isabella Rossellini, Joy
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST ACTRESS
Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion
BEST DIRECTOR
Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
BEST PICTURE
I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.
TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Creed
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Comption
And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…
The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.
The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.
And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:
Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
Predicted Gross: $124.2 million
2. The Night Before
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. Spectre
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Love the Coopers
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)
6. Secret in Their Eyes
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (November 13-15)
As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.
Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.
Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.
Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new movies populate the marketplace this weekend: Christmas comedy Love the Coopers, true life Chilean mining disaster pic The 33, and football drama My All-American. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I find it highly unlikely that any of them will challenge the box office domination of Spectre or The Peanuts Movie, which will both be entering their sophomore frames. In fact, while I see Coopers and The 33 battling for the third spot and My All-American opening outside the top five, the real drama could be between Bond vs. Snoopy for the #1 position.
That’s because Spectre opened below most expectations, including my own. The last two Bond flicks (Quantum of Solace and Skyfall) experienced 60 and 53 percent second week drops, respectively, and I anticipate this one sliding somewhere in between those two figures.
The Peanuts Movie should not dip near as precipitously in its follow-up frame. I believe it will lose around a third of its audience and my prediction has it within very close striking distance to 007.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian should round out the top five. My $3.8 million estimate for My All-American will likely put it at the #8 spot behind Goosebumps and Bridge of Spies.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 35%)
3. Love the Coopers
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The 33
Predicted Gross: $10 million
5. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)
Box Office Results (November 6-8)
While it’s been setting records overseas, Daniel Craig’s fourth Bond pic Spectre didn’t quite match expectations while still giving the franchise its second best start in history. With its mixed reviews, the film took in $70.4 million, well below my $91.3M forecast. The previous entry, the acclaimed Skyfall, still easily maintains its status as largest opener domestically with its $88M from three years. Spectre opened closer to 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which earned $67M.
The Peanuts Movie opened right in line with expectations with an encouraging $44.2 million, on pace with my $43.4M forecast. With its solid A Cinemascore grade, look for this to start a new family franchise and perform well in the coming weeks.
The rest of the top five was filled with holdovers as The Martian was third with $9 million (ahead of my $7.7M prediction) for a total of $196M. Goosebumps took fourth with $6.8 million (in line with my $6M projection) for an overall $66M gross. Bridge of Spies was fifth with $5.8 million (which is exactly what I predicted… pat on back). It’s made $54M so far.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The box office doldrums over the past couple of weeks should thankfully come to an end with November’s arrival and the release of two very high profile releases: 24th James Bond pic Spectre and Charlie Brown and company returning in the 3D animated The Peanuts Movie. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As you’ll see, I have Spectre actually debuting slightly bigger than previous entry Skyfall, though it’s worth noting that some prognosticators have it earning a bit less. We shall see.
The Peanuts Movie should also get off to a sterling start and I expect it to play well into the Thanksgiving season.
The remainder of the top five should be filled with holdover table scraps as the two newbies should dominate the frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $91.3 million
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $43.4 million
3. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a very quiet Halloween weekend at the multiplexes, The Martian retained its #1 spot for the fourth weekend in five frames with $11.7 million (in range with my $10.8M projection) for a total of $183M. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon collaboration is just the third movie of 2015 to manage a first place showing for 4 weeks (joining American Sniper and Furious 7). Its impressive reign will certainly come to an end with 007 and Snoopy coming in.
Staying in second was Goosebumps with $9.8 million (a bit under my $11.2M estimate) for a solid three week tally of $56M.
Bridge of Spies continued to hold up well from week to week with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.9M projection and its total stands at $45M.
Spots four and five belonged to holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five. Hotel Transylvania 2 was fourth with $5.8 million ($156M total gross) and Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter was fifth with $5.1 million for a weak two weekend total of just $19M.
That’s because the three newcomers that opened all posted less than expected results. Bradley Cooper’s Burnt was sixth with just $5 million, below my $8.9M estimate and represents two flops in a row for the actor after this summer’s Aloha.
Sandra Bullock’s critically panned Our Brand Is Crisis gave the actress the worst wide opening of her career with $3.2 million for eighth place, well below my $7.8M prediction.
And, finally, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse was dead on arrival for a 12th place showing of $1.8 million, under my $4.2M forecast.
This trio of newcomers represents more October flops in a month full of them, including Steve Jobs, The Last Witch Hunter, Pan, Jem and the Holograms, Rock the Kasbah, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, and Crimson Peak.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
We are back at it for my second round of Oscar predictions – October edition. The acting categories have been completed and we’ve arrived at Best Director with Best Picture up next. And from my initial round of estimates nearly two months ago, much has changed. In fact, only two of my five original picks remain: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant and Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs, who have both won this category before with Birdman and Slumdog Millionaire, respectively.
Out of the lineup are Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl), and David O. Russell (Joy). All remain possibilities. Joining the party are Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. Their pics have caught on as major festival favorites that are both set to hit screens nationwide in the next couple of weeks. For the fifth slot – there’s plenty of possibilities but I’m going with a bit of an upset name for now: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s a long respected director whose return to the franchise that made him famous over three decades ago was seen as a triumph and I could see his fellow auteurs honoring him.
We shall see how it plays out when my third round arrives in November, but for now:
Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.
**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million
As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.
And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:
Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
2. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. Burnt
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Our Brand Is Crisis
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.
Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.
Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.
The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.
Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.
In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.
The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.
Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.
Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.
That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.
And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…
We’ve arrived at my second round of Oscar predictions in the category of Best Actor and like Best Actress yesterday, there’s only been one change since my initial predictions in early September.
It’s Don Cheadle’s work in Miles Ahead that has been omitted and this is for two reasons: it got mixed reviews on the film fest circuit and it’s likely been pushed back to 2016. Taking his place: Johnny Depp’s work as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, which has earned the star some of the best reviews of his career.
The remaining four: Michael Caine in Youth, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.
I believe Caine could be the most vulnerable of the group and there’s a number of actors that could swoop in and replace him. That list now appears to be topped by Will Smith in Concussion or Matt Damon in The Martian, which has skyrocketed to critical acclaim and terrific box office numbers since my first predictions.
As for now, not a lot has changed here but we’ll see if that remains when my third round is released in November.
TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS (OCTOBER EDITION)
Michael Caine, Youth
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Bradley Cooper, Burnt
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
Will Smith, Concussion
Best Director and Best Picture predictions for the second time around will be up on the blog soon!
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