Box Office Predictions: February 6-8

The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

2. Jupiter Ascending

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Seventh Son

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)

Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.

With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.

Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.

The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.

Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.

The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.

New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 30-February 1

The final weekend of January at the box office should bring an easy three-peat for Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. Three newbies make their way to the screen: the found footage sci-fi pic Project Almanac, Kevin Costner interracial drama Black or White, and murder mystery The Loft. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:

Project Almanac Box Office Prediction

Black Or White Box Office Prediction

The Loft Box Office Prediction

American Sniper continues to confound all expectations and, as mentioned, should easily steamroll all competitors.

Almanac appears to have the best chance to do decent business and I don’t expect much out of the other two. In fact, I have the latter two films debuting at seventh and eighth place.

As for holdovers, current #2 The Boy Next Door should suffer the furthest drop in its sophomore frame. Paddington and The Wedding Ringer should stay in the top five while Oscar hopeful The Imitation Game is experiencing very small drop-offs and could top both Black or White and The Loft.

Two important factors to keep in mind that could effect the box office this weekend: The Super Bowl and the aftermath of a massive winter storm expected to pound the East Coast. Both could trend my predicted numbers downward.

And with that, we’ll do a Top 8 for this weekend:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $42.1 million (representing a drop of 34%)

2. Project Almanac

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)

4. The Boy Next Door

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. The Imitation Game

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 14%)

7. Black or White

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

8. The Loft

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (January 23-25)

The cultural and financial phenomenon that is American Sniper continued to keep jaws on the floor in its second weekend of wide release. Dropping just 28%, it grossed $64.6 million – well above my $50.4M projection. That’s the eight largest sophomore frame in box office history. The Best Picture nominee has grossed $200.4M so far and should easily surpass $350M with $400M being a possibility. That means it is likely to end up as the largest grosser that was released in 2014 (in limited release, for awards consideration), passing The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Unreal.

The Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door debuted solidly with $14.9 million – on par with my $14.7M prediction. Considering its low-budget, this is a fine debut for the poorly reviewed flick.

Paddington was third with $12.2 million – in line with my $12.6M estimate. The children’s pic has earned $39M at press time. The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer earned fourth with $11.3 million, just under my $12.1M projection. It too has amassed a decent $39M so far.

The failure of two newcomers (we’ll get to that in a second) allowed Taken 3 to place fifth with $7.4 million with a total of $75M. I did not have it predicted in the top five. Same goes for The Imitation Game which was sixth with $6.9 million and has earned $60M (making it the second highest grossing Best Picture nominee after Sniper).

The George Lucas produced animated pic Strange Magic stumbled with a debut of only $5.5 million for seventh place. I gave it too much credit and estimated an opening of $8.6M.

Then… Mortdecai. Johnny Depp suffered a colossal bomb as the critically drubbed comedy placed eighth with a pathetic $4.2 million (under my $7.4M estimate). The star clearly needs to start picking better projects as his recent resume is littered with duds that include Dark Shadows and Transcendence.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! And remember… should you need to conduct a super secret business meeting this week, go see Mortdecai and you’ll probably have the theater to yourselves. Until next time…

2014 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And they’re out!

The Oscar nominations for the 2014 movie year were released this morning. As readers of the blog know, I made my final predictions yesterday evening in the eight major categories. So how did I do?

Well… not too shabby as I see it. Of the 44 nominations predicted, I correctly got 38 which equates to 86% overall and perfect scores in three of the races. Let’s take a look at the categories one by one and, for the first time, I’ll offer my initial thoughts on what and who will win:

BEST PICTURE

As mentioned last night, I finally got on the Nightcrawler bandwagon. Frankly, I should have been thinking more about the American Sniper bandwagon. It’s the only movie that received a nod that I didn’t predict. There were eight nominees instead of my estimated nine, which meant my Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler calls were left off. So overall – 7 out of 9 on Best Picture.

Nominees

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

This appears to be a three film race between Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game with Boyhood appearing to have the edge. Selma was once thought to be in that mix, but today’s lack of nods in other categories render its chances virtually non-existent.

Current Predicted Winner: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Went 4 out of 5 here. Bennett Miller’s nomination for Foxcatcher was only surprising because the picture itself wasn’t recognized. I included Ana DuVernay for Selma yet her exclusion isn’t that shocking since Selma has been losing steam.

Nominees

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

For the last two years, Oscar has split their Picture and Director winners. I could easily see a scenario where Boyhood takes top prize with Inarritu’s virtuoso work in Birdman victorious in this category. This is a tough call, but for now I’ll go with Linklater’s heralded and long gestating accomplishment in Boyhood.

Predicted Winner: Linklater

BEST ACTOR

4 for 5 again. This race had turned into a seven man showdown and two were going to be left out. They were David Oyelowo in Selma (who I predicted wouldn’t be nominated) and Jake Gyllenhall in Nightcrawler (I predicted he would). The Sniper love meant Bradley Cooper picked up his third consecutive nomination and he’s the one I left out.

Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

We’ll keep this short and sweet. Cumberbatch or Redmayne could spoil, but this is Keaton’s race to lose.

Predicted Winner: Keaton

BEST ACTRESS

5 for 5 here! I’ll pat myself on the back for including Marion Cotillard’s “surprise” nom for Two Days One Night. Some were surprised at Jennifer Aniston’s exclusion for Cake, but the film was so small and reviews so not solid that I wasn’t.

Nominees

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Like the Best Actor race, we have a big front runner here and it’s Moore (a celebrated and often nominated actress who’s never won). It’s simply hard to imagine any of the other four topping her.

Predicted Winner: Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

5 for 5 again!! Not much to add here as these five actors were the expected nominees and that’s how it panned out.

Nominees

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again there’s a major front runner. J.K. Simmons has won most of the precursors. Only an extremely good night for Birdman and a Norton upset seems plausible… but not that plausible.

Predicted Winner: Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

4 for 5 here as Laura Dern’s work in Wild (which I’d predicted previously but took her off) was included and Jessica Chastain’s in A Most Violent Year was excluded.

Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The broken record continues as Stone could reap the benefit of a Birdman love fest. However, Arquette seems to be in a solid position for gold.

Predicted Winner: Arquette

Best Original Screenplay

Perfection again – 5 for 5!!! ‘Nuff said…

Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

This would appear to be the race where Birdman has an ever so slight edge over Boyhood. If there’s a spoiler, it could be Grand Budapest.

Predicted Winner: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay

4 for 5. The American Sniper props continued as I didn’t include it. That meant Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her book Gone Girl was left off… which was a bit of a surprise.

Nominees

American Sniper

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Here, The Imitation Game seems the most likely to win and it’ll likely represent its only victory in the main races.

Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game

As for surprises in the down ticket categories, there were a couple of big ones. In the Animated Feature category, The LEGO Movie was seen to many as a potential winner and it wasn’t even nominated. In the Documentary race, the Roger Ebert pic Life Itself was shockingly left out.

Please note that my current winner predictions are not my final ones and I will have a post up the weekend before the ceremony to make those picks in all categories.

Stay tuned!

Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions!

Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.

As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild

And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!

Golden Globe Winner Predictions

We are deep into awards season with Oscar nominations coming Thursday and my final predictions arriving Tuesday. The second most notable awards show arrives tomorrow evening with trusty hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning to host the Golden Globes. Here are my guesses for what will win at that show in the major categories.

As you may know, unlike the Oscars, the Globes split the Picture and leading performance races between Drama and Musical/Comedy. Here we go!

Best Film (Drama)

Nominees

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood

POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Imitation Game

Best Film (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Into the Woods

Pride

St. Vincent

PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman

POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

PREDICTED WINNER: Redmayne

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cumberbatch

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees

Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

PREDICTED WINNER: Moore

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jones

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Bill Murray, St. Vincent

Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

PREDICTED WINNER: Keaton

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Fiennes

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey

Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars

Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie

PREDICTED WINNER: Blunt

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Adams

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

PREDICTED WINNER: Simmons

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Norton

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

PREDICTED WINNER: Arquette

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Stone

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Linklater

…. And there you have it friends! Let’s see how the Globes turn tomorrow!

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: Round FIVE

OK folks! We’ve arrived at part five of my Oscar predictions and they’re coming to you nine days before the actual nominations are released. This will be my second to last round of predictions. The final ones will likely come a week from today. I’m estimating the eight biggest categories and with the exception of one race, things have changed since my preceding round nearly a month ago.

Unlike previous posts I won’t go into great detail. I’ll save that for next week. Here are predictions as they stand currently with a listing of the changes I’ve made over the past four weeks:

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

CHANGES

IN: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel

OUT: Gone Girl, Unbroken, Whiplash

BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

IN: Anderson

OUT: David Fincher, Gone Girl

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

NO CHANGES

BEST ACTRESS

Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

IN: Aniston

OUT: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

IN: Duvall

OUT: Tom Wilkinson, Selma

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

IN: Dern

OUT: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

BLOGGER’S NOTE: It was announced yesterday that Whiplash will compete in the Adapted Screenplay instead of its previously anticipated Original Screenplay race.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

IN: Foxcatcher, Nightcrawler

OUT: Selma, Whiplash

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

IN: Inherent Vice, Whiplash

OUT: Unbroken, Wild

And that’ll do it for now! My final predictions are coming to you next week.

Box Office Predictions: January 2-4

The first weekend of 2015 at the box office should be dominated by Christmas time holdovers. Only one new release is out – horror sequel The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/28/the-woman-in-black-2-angel-of-death-box-office-prediction/

In order for Black to even have a shot at the top spot, it would need to outdo the $20 million that its predecessor debuted at and that seems highly unlikely. I believe it’ll even fail to crack the top five.

The race for #1 could come down to The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Unbroken, and Into the Woods. I believe Hobbit should manage a three-peat with the other two battling it out for second. Family fare Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and Annie should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)

2. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Into the Woods

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

5. Annie

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 33%)

6. The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million

Box Office Results (December 25-28)

The Christmas weekend box office saw a host of new films premiering and expanding, but The Hobbit three-quel stayed on top with $40.9 million. This was right on track with my $42.4M estimate. Peter Jackson’s fantasy epic has earned $168M in two weeks.

The #2 and #3 spots belonged to newcomers that greatly exceeded my expectations. Disney’s Into the Woods scored with $31 million over Friday to Sunday and $46.1 million since its Christmas bow, well ahead of my respective $21.8M and $30.1M projections. Rob Marshall’s generally well-received musical clearly hit its target audience and then some.

Despite middling reviews, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken also opened very high with $30.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $46 million since Christmas. This blew away my $20.5M and $28.6M predictions.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb held up well in weekend #2 with $20.2 million, just above my $18.7M projection. While it will certainly be the lowest earner of the franchise, its total stands at a fair $54 million and it should manage to pass the century mark (though not by much).

Annie was fourth with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.9M estimate. It also benefited in its sophomore frame from family audiences on break and its total stands at $45 million, despite its woeful critical reaction.

As for other newbies, Mark Wahlberg’s The Gambler had a so-so debut with $9.1 million over the traditional weekend. My estimate? $9.1 million (gold star!). Its $14.1M Christmas to Sunday take did barely exceed my $12.2M prediction.

Oscar hopeful The Imitation Game opened wide with fabulous results with $7.9 million (Fri to Sun) and $10.9 million since December 25. This out shined my respective estimates of $5.3M and $7.2M.

The news was not so good for Tim Burton’s Big Eyes. Despite mostly positive notices, adult audiences simply had so much to choose from that this was ignored. It made $3 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.4 million since Christmas, lower than my projections of $5.5M and $7.4M.

Finally, The Interview. Opening on a scant 331 screens due to large chain boycotts, the Seth Rogen/James Franco international headline of a raunchy comedy managed a pretty commendable $1.8 million (Fri to Sun) and $2.8 million since the holiday. It didn’t reach my predictions of $3.1M and $4.4M, but this still isn’t bad considering it reportedly made $15 million through its online distribution offerings.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Happy New Year!!!

The Imitation Game Box Office Prediction

After several weeks in limited release where it’s done quite well, The Imitation Game rolls out nationally tomorrow on Christmas Day. Premiering on approximately 747 screens, Game has been the beneficiary of much awards buzz – both for the Picture and its actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley.

The picture tells the story of Alan Turing, known for being the man to break Nazi codes during WWII. Game is thought to be in the running for what actually could win Best Picture, as is Cumberbatch. Reviews have been highly positive and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It’s rolling out on less than 1000 screens which will certainly effect its performance, but I’ll predict it does quite nicely considering the number of theaters.

The Imitation Game opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Into the Woods prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my Big Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: Round FOUR (December Edition)

We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.

As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.

Predicted Nominees

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Wild

Best Original Screenplay

No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.

Predicted Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actor

The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.

Predicted Nominees

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

Best Actress

This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.

Predicted Nominees

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.

Predicted Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.

Predicted Nominees

Ana DuVernay, Selma

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Picture

Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.

Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: ROUND THREE (November Edition)

November brings us my third edition of my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since October’s round of predictions, a few important things have happened. First and foremost, Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Civil Rights pic Selma has screened for critics and vaulted itself into a major contender… and not just for nominations. Disney’s Into the Woods screened just last night and it too has entered the fray. The only film left unseen is Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, but it remains a potential force to be reckoned with.

Let’s go through the categories one by one and I’ll point out what changes have transpired in the last few weeks!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Only one change here as I’ve taken out American Sniper and subbed in Into the Woods. The other four nominees seem like sure things for the most part. If Woods or Sniper don’t get in, Inherent Vice, Still Alice, or Wild are other possibles.

Predicted Nominees

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Into the Woods

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Best Original Screenplay

I had Interstellar in a month ago, but this seems unlikely after the main complaints of critics was the script. Foxcatcher is out as well as it seems to be losing momentum in the Academy derby. I’ve put it Selma and Whiplash in their place. I’m still keeping in The Grand Budapest Hotel, though many prognosticators have it out of competition. A Most Violent Year and Mr. Turner could get in, too.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

We have a couple changes here as Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) join the mix, supplanting Laura Dern (Wild) and Kristen Stewart (Still Alice). Other possibles include Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) and Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year).

Predicted Nominees

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Carmen Ejogo, Selma

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Best Supporting Actor

We’ll make this simple – this is the one race where nothing has changed prediction wise! If any of my predictions falter – keep an eye out for Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth (both for Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), or Robert Duvall (The Judge).

Predicted Nominees

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Miyavi, Unbroken

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress

Just one alteration here as I’ve taken out Amy Adams for Big Eyes and substituted Emily Blunt for Into the Woods. Others with surprise nomination shots are Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Hilary Swank (The Homesman), and Jennifer Aniston (Cake).

Predicted Nominees

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor

The most competitive category of all appears to have four shoo-ins now: Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. This is actually the first time I’ve included Oyelowo after Selma screened, so I’ve removed Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. The fifth slot is tough – it could be O’Connell, Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), or even Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler) or Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel). For now, though, I’m sticking with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, despite its downgrading among many for possible nominations.

Predicted Nominees

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director

Last month, I included high profile auteurs David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar). They’re out and Ana DuVernay (Selma) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) are in. Oscar could make some history if DuVernay makes it in. She’d be the first African American woman to be recognized in this category. Additionally, my current estimates that include her and Angelina Jolie would mark the first time two women are up for the award.

Predicted Nominees

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Picture

I’m still sticking with nine predicted nominees yet a third of them have changed. Gone are Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and American Sniper. They all have decent shots still, along with A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Joining the mix are Selma (a no brainer now) and less sure things Into the Woods and Whiplash. I’m still including Interstellar, though that’s an iffy proposition.

Predicted Nominees

Birdman

Boyhood

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Into the Woods

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

We’ll have a fourth round of December predictions soon enough, friends! Until then…