Tag: The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 15th Edition

We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:

  • Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category,  replacing Steven Spielberg.
  • Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
  • Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
  • In more good news for Three Billboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
  • Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.

You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Get Out (PR: 6)

6. The Post (PR: 5)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. Darkest Hour (PR: 13)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Molly’s Game (PR: 14)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

9. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

7. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 7)

9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hostiles (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Beguiled

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)

7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 2)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 5)

5. The Insult (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square (PR: 6)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. On Body and Soul (PR: 8)

9. Felicite (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 3)

4. Icarus (PR: 5)

5. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 6)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)

8. LA 92 (PR: 9)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Human Flow (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ex Libris: The New York Public Library

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. The Post (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

7. Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

8. Downsizing (PR: 9)

9. The Post (PR: 7)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 5)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 8)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bright (PR: 4)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 6)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

8. Coco (PR: 8)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coco (PR: 8)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 9)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 2)

3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 3)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 5)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture –

14 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

The Post

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Get Out, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Mudbound

3 Nominations

Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Baby Driver

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, The Big Sick, Victoria and Abdul, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, Icarus, City of Ghosts

See you next week!

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 8th Edition

Two major developments since last week’s Oscar predictions as the Golden Globes happened and the Production Guild Award nominations came out. Combined with other precursor activity, one thing has become clear to me:

It was time to remove Dunkirk from its months long perch in the #1 slot. It’s fallen to #4 and we finally have a new #1 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Truth be told, I could have just as easily put The Shape of Water or Lady Bird in that spot. It’s a close race, folks!

Guillermo del Toro replaces Christopher Nolan in the top spot for director, as does Allison Janney in Supporting Actress over Laurie Metcalf.

We are only 15 days away from nominations and here’s my take at this moment:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

4. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

5. The Post (PR: 3)

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

9. The Big Sick (PR: 12)

10. Mudbound (PR: 11)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 13)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

13. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

14. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 8)

7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 6)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 9)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Mitchell, Mudbound 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)

8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

7. The Post (PR: 6)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 2)

3. The Insult (PR: 4)

4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)

5. In the Fade (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square (PR: 5)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)

9. Felicite (PR: 8)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

5. Icarus (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 4)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)

8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

9. LA 92 (PR: 8)

10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Chasing Coral 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: 9)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 7)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hostiles

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Downsizing (PR: 5)

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bright (PR: 3)

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 6)

7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)

8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. Coco (PR: 8)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

9. Detroit (PR: 10)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

8. Coco (PR: 8)

9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 4)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)

4. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)

5. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)

8. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following nomination breakdown for each picture –

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

8 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread

3 Nominations

Mudbound

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Wonder Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Baby Driver, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Insult, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, City of Ghosts, Icarus

 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 2nd Edition

Back at it again with my first 2018 predictions for the Oscars! We are just three weeks away from the reveal of the nominations. On Sunday, a large awards precursor will occur when the Golden Globes air…

Here’s the major developments this week –

  • For the first time, I’m switching from a predicted nine pictures being nominated to eight. Why? Well, part of it is selfish. I feel rather confident about the eight features predicted. The nine (or ten) spot could be a mix of Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or Mudbound. Perhaps one or two of them sneak in. For now, they’re all out.
  • Speaking of The Big Sick, I’ve finally put it in the Original Screenplay predictions, which leaves out The Post. 

While there’s no changes in the acting races, let’s see how the next three weeks play out. For now, my initial 2018 estimates…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

6. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

7. Get Out (PR: 6)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

11. Mudbound (PR: 11)

12. The Big Sick (PR: 13)

13. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All the Money in the World

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 6)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)

9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 6)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Rylance, Dunkirk 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)

9. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Beguiled 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: 4)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

8. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Ferdinand (PR: 9)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 4)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)

4. The Insult (PR: 6)

5. The Square (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. In the Fade (PR: 5)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. Felicite (PR: 8)

9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 5)

4. Strong Island (PR: 7)

5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Icarus (PR: 3)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: Not Ranked)

8. LA 92 (PR: 4)

9. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)

10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Human Flow

An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

9. Get Out (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

7. Mudbound (PR: 6)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

10. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. Downsizing (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 5)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 9)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 5)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. Bright (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

4. I, Tonya (PR: 3)

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 7)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 6)

8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coco (PR: 10)

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour 

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

8. Coco (PR: 10)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)

3. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 7)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

3 Nominations

Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, Get Out, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Downsizing, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, War for the Planet of the Apes

1 Nomination

Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Bright, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, The Square, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Strong Island, Long Strange Trip

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: Christmas Edition

Merry Christmas loyal blog readers! It may be Christmas, but it’s still Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in…

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 5)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 11)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. The Big Sick (PR: 15)

14. All the Money in the World (PR: 13)

15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 10)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 6)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Best Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 10)

10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

7. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 5)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 8)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)

9. Ferdinand (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. The Square (PR: 2)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 4)

4. Loveless (PR: 3)

5. In the Fade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Insult (PR: 6)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. Felicite (PR: 8)

9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Icarus (PR: 3)

4. LA 92 (PR: 8)

5. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

7. Strong Island (PR: 6)

8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Chasing Coral (PR: 10)

10. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

One of Us

Best Film Editing

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 3)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 10)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

7. The Post (PR: 5)

8. Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Wonderstruck

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. The Beguiled (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

7. The Post (PR: 4)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 3)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

6. Bright (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 6)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

7. Okja (PR: 9)

8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman (PR: 5)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

9. Spider–Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)

10. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

8. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman

Transformers: The Last Knight

Best Original Score

1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)

5. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)

7. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

8. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)

9. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power

That leaves me with the following Yuletide nomination count –

11 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

8 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya

3 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Mudbound, Wonder, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver

1 Nomination

Downsizing, The Big Sick, Molly’s Game, Murder on the Orient Express, The Beguiled, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, A Fantastic Woman, Loveless, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, LA 92, City of Ghosts

I shall return with New Years Day predictions! Stay tuned…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.

Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:

  • Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
  • Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
  • In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
  • In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
  • In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
  • The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
  • The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. The Post (PR: 4)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mudbound (PR: 11)

11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Breathe

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder (PR: 5)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)

8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Boss Baby

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. The Square (PR: 3)

3. Loveless (PR: 5)

4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

5. In the Fade (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Insult (PR: 8)

7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BPM (Beats Per Minute)

First, They Killed My Father

Thelma

The Divine Order

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 5)

7. One of Us (PR: 7)

8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)

10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

10. Get Out (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Call Me by Your Name

Detroit

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Wonderstruck

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

3. Wonder (PR: 4)

 

Other Possibilities:

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beauty and the Beast

Phantom Thread 

Logan

The Shape of Water

The Greatest Showman

Blade Runner 2049

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

It

 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Beauty and the Beast

Wonder Woman

Thor: Ragnarok 

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

8. The Post (PR: 9)

9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

The Greatest Showman 

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)

10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)

That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

The Post

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

Lady Bird

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast

3 Nominations

Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip

My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!

 

Todd’s Weekly 2017 Oscar Predictions: December 11th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.

The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.

Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.

Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.

In other developments:

  • Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
  • Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
  • In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread

Read on!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 2)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: 11)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. Detroit (PR: 13)

14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The Disaster Artist

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)

10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Baker, The Florida Project

Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Robert Pattinson, Good Time

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)

4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)

10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Victoria and Abdul 

First, They Killed My Father

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Get Out (PR: 5)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)

4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ferdinand

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

In this Corner of the World

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)

2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

3. The Square (PR: 7)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. Loveless (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. In the Fade (PR: 4)

8. The Insult (PR: 5)

9. Thelma (PR: 9)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 5)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)

5. Strong Island (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)

7. One of Us (PR: 9)

8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cries from Syria

Icarus

Risk

Kedi

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread

Blade Runner 2049 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: 7)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Wonder (PR: 9)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

10. It (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

8. Detroit (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)

8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

9. Detroit (PR: 5)

10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)

9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman

“The Promise” from The Promise

And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk, The Post

6 Nominations

Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast

3 Nominations

Darkest Hour, Mudbound

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes

1 Nomination

Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island 

Todd’s Weekly 2017 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.

Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:

  • The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
  • The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
  • Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
  • Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
  • Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.

You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 7)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mudbound (PR: 8)

11. Get Out (PR: 11)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. Detroit (PR: 13)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 5)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)

7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)

8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

3. Mudbound (PR: 2)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

7. Wonder (PR: 7)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Get Out (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)

3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Despicable Me 3

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)

3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 2)

5. The Insult (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. The Square (PR: 5)

8. Loveless (PR: 7)

9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Happy End

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

4. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Faces Places (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 8)

7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

8. Risk (PR: 7)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Step

The Final Year

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 4)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Mudbound (PR: 10)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonder (PR: 7)

10. It (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Thor: Ragnarok

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Beauty and the Beast

Best Sound Mixing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

5. Detroit (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)

And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:

11 Nominations

Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Phantom Thread

6 Nominations

Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

1 Nomination

Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall. 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 27th Edition

I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today. 

Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.

If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.

Some other developments:

Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.

In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).

Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.

Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Lady Bird (PR: 7)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. The Post (PR: 8)

8. Mudbound (PR: 5)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

Other Possibilities:

10. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

11. Get Out (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

13. Detroit (PR: 14)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 15)

15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  (PR: 4)

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

7. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Sean Baker, The Florida Project

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 3)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)

7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 5)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 10)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)

9. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)

7. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 10)

8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Breathe

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

7. Wonder (PR: 10)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

9. First, They Killed My Father (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Stronger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Get Out (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Girl Without Hands

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. The Square (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. Loveless (PR: 7)

8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)

9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Happy End (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Tom of Finland

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 2)

2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)

3. Icarus (PR: 3)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Risk (PR: 7)

8. Strong Island (PR: 5)

9. Faces Places (PR: 10)

10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kedi

Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Get Out

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 6)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mudbound (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

4. The Post (PR: 7)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Murder on the Orient Express 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

10. It (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Coco

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

8. Detroit (PR: 7)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)

7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“Jump” from Step

And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

8 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Phantom Thread

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast

3 Nominations

Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver

1 Nomination

Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall

I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 20th Edition

Greetings all as my Oscar predictions return! My Thursday predictions will now become my Monday predictions as I missed last Thursday due to vacation. The biggest development of the last 11 days was that Steven Spielberg’s The Post screened last night. While it’s under strict embargo still from reviews, word leaking out currently is pretty encouraging and it’s bolstered both the picture and Meryl Streep’s chances for Oscar recognition (and possibly its director and Tom Hanks as well). It’s enough that I’ve got it going from 1 predicted nod a couple weeks ago to 4 today. A word of caution: with the embargo in place, I would describe my current Post placements as fluid.

You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll be back next Monday with fresh predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 6)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 9)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Get Out (PR: 11)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 7)

7. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 9)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)

10. Jordan Peele, Get Out (Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 9)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

10. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 6)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour

Will Poulter, Detroit

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

10. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 6)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 5)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

9. Stronger (PR: 9)

10. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Get Out (PR: 5)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 9)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 7)

7. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 9)

9. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)

4. The Square (PR: 5)

5. Foxtrot (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)

7. Loveless (PR: 3)

8. Happy End (PR: 7)

9. The Divine Order (PR: 10)

10. Tom of Finland (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)

2. Jane (PR: 2)

3. Icarus (PR: 4)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

5. Strong Island (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kedi (PR: 8)

7. Risk (PR: 5)

8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)

10. Faces Places (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Human Flow

Step

One of Us

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

7. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

9. Detroit (PR: 10)

10. Get Out (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Mudbound

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Call Me by Your Name

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

8. Mudbound (PR: 9)

9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel

mother!

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Beguiled (PR: 5)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Post (PR: 9)

8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)

9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)

7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

8. It (PR: 9)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)

8. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 10)

9. Coco (PR: 7)

10. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

7. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Coco

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Coco

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

3. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

4. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)

5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)

7. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)

10. “Jump” from Step (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes

“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

And that leaves us with the following breakdown of nominations:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

Dunkirk, Darkest Hour

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, Lady Bird, The Post, Phantom Thread

3 Nominations

Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman, 

1 Nomination

Stronger, Breathe, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Foxtrot, Jane, Icarus, Strong Island, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, Fifty Shades Darker. 

We’ll see you next Monday with updated projections!

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 9th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly updated Oscar predictions are in!

Some developments from the past seven days:

  • Steven Spielberg’s The Post is down to just one nomination in my predictions. It’s the big one (Best Picture), but it’s clinging for dear life to the 9th spot with pics like I, Tonya and Get Out getting closer to getting in. Obviously, no one has seen it yet so this is based solely on buzz alone. We did get our first trailer for it this week at long last.
  • Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird makes a major leap this week into both Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). That means Blade Runner 2049 has fallen out of my predicted nine in Picture with Meryl Streep out in Actress for The Post (she held the #1 spot for weeks).
  • For the first time, Martin McDonagh’s directorial work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is in. That means Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name) is currently out.
  • In Best Actor, I’ve finally taken Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman out of the top 5, replaced with Andrew Garfield in Breathe.
  • Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) replaces Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water in Supporting Actor. If that happens, Call Me would be the first Supporting Actor race to feature two actors (Stuhlbarg, Armie Hammer) from the same picture since Bugsy in 1991 (Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley).
  • Mary J. Blige enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress, replacing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour. 

That means all 8 major categories have seen changes. Lastly, there’s the unprecedented news that broke last night involving Christopher Plummer reshooting all of Kevin Spacey’s scenes in Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World. Shockingly, the studio is still looking to make its December 22 release date. If that happens, Plummer might be one to look out for in Supporting Actor.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Mudbound (PR: 4)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Get Out (PR: 15)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

9. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 10)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 7)

10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 3)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

9. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

5. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Get Out (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. Loveless (PR: 8)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. The Square (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Foxtrot (PR: 5)

7. Happy End (PR: 4)

8. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 7)

9. Tom of Finland (PR: 10)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)

7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cries from Syria (PR: 4)

2. Jane (PR: 5)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 1)

5. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Risk (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Step (PR: 6)

8. Kedi (PR: 10)

9. Long Strange Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

10. One of Us (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

Dina

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

7. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Mudbound (PR: 7)

10. mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Call Me by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

9. It (PR: 9)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Wonderstruck

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 2)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

10. Thor: Rangarok (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kong: Skull Island

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 9)

7. Coco (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 4)

9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

9. Coco (PR: 10)

10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

10. Coco (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

8. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)

9. “If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

That leaves the following breakdown of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

9 Nominations

Darkest Hour

7 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name

4 Nominations

Mudbound, Lady Bird

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

The Post, Stronger, Breathe, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Last Flag Flying, Get Out, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Loveless, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales, Ferdinand, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Risk, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker.