Box Office Predictions: September 16-18

The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.

Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.

The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.

As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:

Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low

Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High

Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High

**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.

And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Blair Witch

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

2. Sully

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Bridget Jones’s Baby

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Snowden

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. When the Bough Breaks

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

Box Office Results (September 9-11)

Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.

The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.

Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.

Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.

Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.

Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Sully Movie Review

Sully is the most feel good movie in recent memory that’s likely to make you feel woefully inadequate the next time you miss the mark parallel parking. After all, it tells the remarkable story of Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger (Tom Hanks), who became an American hero after completing an improbable water landing on the Hudson River in January 2009.

Clint Eastwood’s latest delves deeper into a story that inspired millions some seven and a half years ago. It also reminds us of that not so distant period when the economy had recently plummeted and the sight of an aircraft off course in New York City was a terrifying sight. While Sully and his trusty co-pilot Jeff (Aaron Eckhart) are confident that their reaction to a bird strike that caused engine failure on takeoff was correct, the NTSB is not so sure.

The film cuts back and forth between the pilots sitting in after the crash (or water landing as Sully insists it be called since no crash occurred) hearings and brief happenings before the most famous three-minute flight ever. There’s some back story showing a young Sully earnings his wings that somehow felt like unnecessary filler in a tight 96 minute runtime. We also see the title character trying to cope with instant fame in the immediate days following (he wonders into a bar one night where there’s already a drink named after him). And we see glimpses into his married life with Laura Linney in a role where her face is constantly connected to her cell phone. Her husband is stuck in NYC until the investigation’s completion.

We see the United Airways flight from multiple angles – that of the air traffic controller, of citizens in the Big Apple, of the Coast Guard. Most thrillingly, we see the cockpit reaction and split second decisions that had to be made to save 155 lives on board. Though we know the outcome, Eastwood and his editor direct these sequences in a way that generates maximum suspense. Speaking of the director, I was able to spot a subtle Eastwood cameo in a scene where Sully runs through Times Square. Hint: his hit Gran Torino happened to be the #1 movie in America when these events happened.

Hanks has long perfected the Everyman Doing Extraordinary Things role – so much so that we probably take his incredible talent for granted. He does it here again and creates another hero filled with doubts and fears. Sully is also a man who barely gets a moment to comprehend his deeds, with the media and government officials trying to monopolize the aftermath of the “Miracle on the Hudson”. To Captain Sully, he was just doing his job in an unreal set of circumstances. So does the team behind the re-telling of it.

*** (out of four)

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

Box Office Predictions: September 9-11

BLOGGER’S UPDATE (09/09/16): I can no longer ignore the strong signals that Sully will top the box office this weekend. I’m not changing my When the Bough Breaks forecast, but am upping Sully from $19.8M to $28.5M.

The second weekend of September brings us four new entries that will likely perform significantly different. There’s the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks collaboration Sully, romantic thriller When the Bough Breaks, horror pic The Disappointments Room and Belgian animated export The Wild Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/sully-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/when-the-bough-breaks-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/02/the-wild-life-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, there could be a serious battle for the #1 slot between Bough and Sully. The latter debuted to positive reviews over the weekend (75% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The former is a critic proof entity that could follow in the footsteps of September 2014’s No Good Deed and September 2015’s The Perfect Guy with grosses in the low to mid 20s. Meanwhile, I have Sully not quite reaching $20M, though it’ll likely have solid legs in subsequent weekends.

For those reasons, I’m giving Bough the edge to reach the top spot this weekend. I have a feeling there may be those who disagree. As for the other newcomers, I’m expecting wildly disappointing results. Neither The Disappointments Room or The Wild Life seem to have any momentum. My $2.3M and $3.2M estimates for them, respectively, leave them outside the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:

Sully – 64% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 5% Too High

When the Bough Breaks – 53% Just About Right, 44% Too High, 3% Too Low

The Disappointments Room – 64% Just About Right, 22% Too Low, 14% Too High

The Wild Life – 50% Just About Right, 43% Too Low, 7% Too High

As for holdovers, current two-time champ Don’t Breathe should slip to third with Suicide Squad in fourth. Kubo and Pete’s Dragon are likely to battle for the five spot with similar grosses.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Sully

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

2. When the Bough Breaks

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

3. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

Box Office Results (September 2-5)

It was a typically sluggish Labor Day weekend as two newcomers failed to connect with audiences. The low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe, on the other hand, continued to impress with $19.7 million (above my $16.7M estimate) for a total of $55 million.

Suicide Squad was second once again with $12.6 million (in line with my $12.9M projection) as it crossed the $300M line.

Kubo and the Two Strings was third with $8.7 million (I said $8M) for a $36M gross. The four and five spots were holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five: Pete’s Dragon with $8.4 million ($66M total) and Sausage Party with $6.4 million ($89M total).

As for the aforementioned newcomers… ouch. Romantic drama The Light Between Oceans was sixth with only $6.1 million (well under my $11.3M prediction).

Sci-fi thriller Morgan fared even worse with just $2.5 million for 18th place… less than a fourth of my generous $10.6M forecast.

And that will do it for now, blog readers! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Sully

The Telluride Film Festival gave audiences and critics their first look at Sully, which lands (safely) in theaters Friday. This is the first paring of legends Clint Eastwood (who directs) and Tom Hanks. He plays the real life title character of the pilot credited with the Miracle on the Hudson in 2009.

Early reviews have been solid across the board. It’s no surprise that a bulk of the acclaim has gone to Hanks, who’s said to give a typically great performance. I use that term for a reason as it now appears to be easy for Oscar voters to take him for granted. Exhibit A is 2013’s Captain Phillips, another heralded true life tale in which the Academy passed him over for Best Actor, even though I believe it to be among his finest work. If Hanks couldn’t get a nod for it, I’m skeptical he will here.

Sully stands a nice chance at connecting with moviegoers, but I don’t feel at this juncture that it’ll get much Oscar attention. This applies to Best Picture, Director, the supporting categories with costars Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney, and even its huge lead who hasn’t been nominated in 16 years.

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

We have reached day 6 of my earliest Oscar predictions and that means the big one – Best Picture!

This week, the Venice Film Festival has helped make the scene a little clearer in a couple of ways. For one, Damien Chazelle’s La La Land not only looks like an easy pick for a nomination, but it could potentially be a winner. Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals and Denis Villenueve’s Arrival are also in the mix. For now – I’m leaving Arrival out and Animals in (obviously this could certainly change over the next weeks and months).

There’s plenty that we haven’t seen that appear strong – Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Denzel Washington’s Fences. Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight.

And there are others that have already screened at other festivals that look like contenders: Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Jeff Nichols’ Loving. This list also includes Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation and whether or not news stories involving its director prevent it from being nominated is a legit question. For now, I’ve got it in.

A host of other possibilities abound that have yet to be screened and I’ll be keeping you up to date with numerous prediction posts over the fall. At this juncture, I have nine movies being nominated (there can be anywhere from 9-10).

They are:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

The Birth of a Nation

Fences

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

Other Possibilities:

The 13th

20th Century Women

Allied

American Pastoral

Arrival

Collateral Beauty

The Founder

The Girl on the Train

Gold

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

I, Daniel Blake

Jackie

LBJ

Live by Night

The Lobster

Lion

Miss Sloane

Passengers

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Rules Don’t Apply

Snowden

Sully

A United Kingdom

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Day 5 of my early 2016 Oscar predictions continues with Best Director and this week has already helped solidify the standings of two: Damien Chazelle for La La Land (who looks like a shoo-in for a nod) and Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals (not guaranteed; but very good chance).

Then there’s Martin Scorsese for Silence. The legendary director has been nominated 8 times for this award, including for five of his last six pictures (winning for 2006’s The Departed). It’s a safe pick to put him in, but the only uncertainty is whether or not Silence is actually released this year.

Ang Lee has won the award twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and his Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks poised for several nominations.

There are many other possibilities: Denzel Washington could land his first directorial attention for Fences. Jeff Nichols’ Loving has already been the subject of much acclaim. Both Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) and Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) could find themselves in the mix, as could Denis Villenueve (Arrival) and Morten Tyldum (Passengers) for their science fiction pics.

Also worth noting: Nate Parker for The Birth of a Nation. This is a tricky one as the movie has been a critical hit yet prevalent stories on his past have called into question whether the Academy will make that a factor. We shall see.

Here’s how I have the race right now:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Garth Davis, Lion

Ana DuVernay, The 13th

Clint Eastwood, Sully

Gareth Edwards, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

David Frankel, Collateral Beauty

Stephen Gaghan, Gold

John Lee Hancock, The Founder

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

John Madden, Miss Sloane

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Rob Reiner, LBJ

Tate Taylor, The Girl on the Train

Morten Tyldum, Passengers

Denis Villenueve, Arrival

Ben Younger, Bleed for This

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Picture tomorrow!

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted) and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn–zOO8LN8

Sully Box Office Prediction

***BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/08/16): I’ve caved on Sully prediction. My $19.8M prediction is clearly too low, so I’m switching to $28.5M.

Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks mark their first collaboration together in Sully, landing in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of Captain “Sully” Sullenberger and his “Miracle on the Hudson” water heroics in 2009 and drama that followed. Costars include Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney.

The film looks to break in adult audiences burnt out on summer blockbusters and having Mr. Hanks in the title role won’t hurt. Looking over his last two wide release starring roles, 2013’s Captain Phillips opened to $25.7 million (I would argue it had more buzz). Last fall’s Bridge of Spies premiered with $15.3 million.

**UPDATED to $28.5M prediction

Even with its familiar and much reported on subject matter, I believe Sully will probably place in between those two efforts. Good reviews and a lack of competition could lift it past that and this is something that could have solid legs with positive word of mouth. I’ll project it gets just under $30M for its start. That would actually give Mr. Eastwood his second highest directorial debut after the massive $89 million that his previous effort (2014’s American Sniper) brought in.

Sully opening weekend prediction: $28.5 million

For my When the Bough Breaks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/when-the-bough-breaks-box-office-prediction/

For my The Disappointments Room prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/

For my The Wild Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/02/the-wild-life-box-office-prediction/

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.

There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).

As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.

Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.

Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.

Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.

And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.

As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

John Legend, La La Land

Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Liam Neeson, Silence

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Other Possibilities:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Kyle Chandler, Manchester by the Sea

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Robert De Niro, Hands of Stone

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Adam Driver, Silence

Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Brendan Gleeson, Live by Night

John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Oscar Isaac, The Promise

Nick Offerman, The Founder

Edgar Ramirez, Gold

Michael Shannon, Loving

J.K. Simmons, La La Land

Timothy Spall, Denial

Chris Tucker, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

And there you have it! Best Actress tomorrow…

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