Tag: Strangers

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 9th Edition

The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.

Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.

Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.

Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.

In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.

As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)

15. May December (PR: 15) (E)

16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)

17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

How Do You Live?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

David Fincher, The Killer

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Color Purple

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Claire Foy, Strangers

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted)

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (-3)

14. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

The Bikeriders

The Boys in the Boat

Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 25th Edition

For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.

When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.

We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)

15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)

18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)

19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)

24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)

25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Flint Strong (moved to 2024)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)

13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong

Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)

12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Strangers (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Bikeriders (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Boys in the Boat (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Original)

Flint Strong

Ferrari

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 14th Edition

My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.

Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.

In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.

One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)

12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)

18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)

21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)

13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)

Droped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Jane Levy, A Little Prayer

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporing Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives

2. Air

3. The Holdovers

4. Saltburn

5. May December

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City

7. Challengers

8. Maestro

9. Anatomy of a Fall

10. The Book of Clarence

11. Rustin

12. Drive Away Dolls

13. Napoleon

14. Bob Marley: One Love

15. Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Poor Things

3. The Color Purple

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Barbie

9. The Nickel Boys

10. Flint Strong

11. Freud’s Last Session

12. Strangers

13. The Bikeriders

14. Ferrari

15. The Boys in the Boat

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Strangers

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Strangers

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilties:

6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Maestro

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Picture)

As April closes out, I’m giving you my initial ranked projections for the Best Picture race at the 96th Academy Awards. Over the past few days, I’ve done the same for Director and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

I will note that I made my first rankings for the 95th Oscars around the same time last year. Of those 10 movies predicted, it yielded three eventual nominees: Everything Everywhere All at Once (which won), The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four additional contenders were mentioned in Other Possibilities: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and Tár.

Three films in my top 25 from 2022 can be found here since they were delayed: Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Rustin. Let’s dispense with the caveats you’re used to seeing if you read my other write-ups. Some titles here are bound to be pushed back. Some will simply not match pre-release hype and fall by the wayside. Surprises will emerge throughout the season and at upcoming festivals.

Here’s the premiere outlook on BP’ 23!

TODD’S BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Past Lives

3. The Color Purple

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Oppenheimer

6. Poor Things

7. Saltburn

8. Challengers

9. Air

10. May December

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro

12. The Holdovers

13. Blitz

14. Barbie

15. Bob Marley: One Love

16. Napoleon

17. The Book of Clarence

18. Strangers

19. Flint Strong

20. Rustin

21. The Killer

22. Asteroid City

23. Ferrari

24. The Nickel Boys

25. The Bikeriders

And now you can expect updates to these rankings every couple of weeks (they’ll soon become weekly). Keep an eye on the blog and on my podcast (search Movies at the Speed of Speculation) for all of it!

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Director)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My initial ranked predictions covering the four acting races as well as director and picture for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed the post for Supporting Actor, you can find it linked here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

As I did in that write-up, here are some fair warnings. Some of these performances may end up being considered lead. For example, Rosamund Pike in Saltburn is a question mark as far as category placement.

You might see some of these pictures pushed back to 2024. When I did my initial ranked projections around this time last year, I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) listed in 1st place. As you’ll see, since the movie got delayed to 2023, history repeats itself.

And some of these entries simply won’t become awards contenders while others will pop up that aren’t mentioned. In fact, only one of the Supporting Actresses (Hong Chau in The Whale) of the 15 that I listed the first time around for 2022 ended up being nominated.

Let’s see if those numbers improve for 2023!

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

3. Julianne Moore, May December

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

5. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air

7. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin

9. Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

10. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

11. Claire Foy, Strangers

12. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer

14. Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

15. Jodie Foster, Nyad

Best Actor is up next!

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My impossibly early and speculative first Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post regarding the Supporting Actor hopefuls, you can find it here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Before you know it, I’ll moving to my weekly (or every two weeks) forecasts for the main races. When I did these inaugural picks in this category last year, it correctly identified one eventual nominee (Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans) that made the quintet. However, she did so in lead Actress. Another (Hong Chau for The Whale) was listed in Other Possibilities.

Let’s get to it and Best Actor is up tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Viola Davis, Air

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Other Possibilities:

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Claire Foy, Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Audra McDonald, Rustin

Carey Mulligan, Saltburn

Margaret Qualley, Poor Things

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Amy Ryan, Beau is Afraid

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives