Tag: Robert Pattinson

Todd’s Weekly 2017 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.

Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:

  • The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
  • The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
  • Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
  • Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
  • Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.

You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 7)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mudbound (PR: 8)

11. Get Out (PR: 11)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. Detroit (PR: 13)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 5)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)

7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)

8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

3. Mudbound (PR: 2)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

7. Wonder (PR: 7)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Get Out (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)

3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Despicable Me 3

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)

3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 2)

5. The Insult (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. The Square (PR: 5)

8. Loveless (PR: 7)

9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Happy End

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

4. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Faces Places (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 8)

7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

8. Risk (PR: 7)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Step

The Final Year

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 4)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Mudbound (PR: 10)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonder (PR: 7)

10. It (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Thor: Ragnarok

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Beauty and the Beast

Best Sound Mixing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

5. Detroit (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)

And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:

11 Nominations

Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Phantom Thread

6 Nominations

Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

1 Nomination

Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall. 

Good Time Box Office Prediction

A long way from Twilight, Robert Pattinson is receiving critical acclaim for his latest pic and it is heist drama Good Time, which expands nationwide this weekend. The A24 release comes from directors Ben and Josh Sadfie with a supporting cast featuring Barkhad Abdi and Jennifer Jason Leigh.

The film premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to solid notices and it stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, with a performance from Mr. Pattinson that’s drawn raves. Over the previous weekend, it drew a commendable $165,000 on just 20 screens.

Doing an opening weekend estimate for Good Time is a little tricky since I don’t have a theater count at press time (in other words, this prediction could change). I’m going to assume it’s on maybe 600-700 screens. For now, I’ll say it manages to reach a bit between $1-$2M out of the gate.

Good Time opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million

For my Leap! prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/leap-box-office-prediction/

For my All Saints prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/all-saints-box-office-prediction/

For my Birth of the Dragon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/17/birth-of-the-dragon-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Good Time

The Cannes Film Festival showcased a rather unexpected potential player in the awards derby with the crime drama Good Time, which debuts stateside in August. The film comes from indie directors Ben and Josh Safdie and finds Twilight star Robert Pattinson as a bank robber trying to break his brother out of jail. Barkhad Abdi and Jennifer Jason Leigh are among the supporting cast.

Early word of mouth for the A24 offering has been quite positive. It stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and it was reportedly greeted with a six minute standing ovation in Cannes. Much of the praise has been awarded to Mr. Pattinson. If the pic is able to break out in any substantial way in the U.S., he could emerge as a dark horse candidate for Best Actor and the Original Screenplay could get some buzz as well.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

James Gray’s The Lost City of Z opens in semi wide release this weekend after a pretty impressive debut in very limited fashion over Easter weekend. The pic tells the true story of explorer Percy Fawcett (Charlie Hunnam) in the Amazon in the early 20th century. Costars include Robert Pattinson, Sienna Miller, and Tom Holland.

Z closed the New York Film Festival last fall to positive word of mouth and it stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It grossed over $100,000 on just 4 screens this last weekend and is slated to expand to approximately 500 on Friday.

I believe this could perform similarly to The Place Beyond the Pines four years ago. Though there’s no obvious comparison between the two titles, both appeal to a more adult audience and received encouraging critical reaction. Pines made $3.8 million when it hit around 500 theaters. If Z accomplishes the same, that means I have it out doing The Promise, Phoenix Forgotten, and Free Fire in their debuts.

The Lost City of Z opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

Born in China Box Office Prediction

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

The Promise Box Office Prediction

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

Free Fire Box Office Prediction