Jason Bourne Box Office Prediction

Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass return to their blockbuster franchise after nearly a decade when Jason Bourne hits theaters next weekend. Originating from the novels by Robert Ludlum, this sequel may succeed in not being a box office letdown as a number of others have this season. Alicia Vikander, Tommy Lee Jones, Julia Stiles, Vincent Cassel, and Riz Ahmed are among the costars.

Let’s take a trip down Bourne franchise history lane, shall we? In 2002, The Bourne Identity became a summer sleeper hit with a $27 million debut and $121 million overall domestic gross. The numbers increased with the 2004 follow-up The Bourne Supremacy (when Greengrass took over directorial duties). It had a $52 million premiere and $176 million eventual tally. In 2007, third entry The Bourne Ultimatum hit the high marks with a $69 million opening and $227 million take.

It was after Ultimatum that Damon and Greengrass departed the critically acclaimed and audience approved pics. 2012 brought The Bourne Legacy, which cast Jeremy Renner as a new operative. While it scored a respectable $38 million debut, its $113 million domestic haul was a franchise low.

Four years later – the team behind the two most successful Bourne‘s return and my hunch is that moviegoers will be ready for it. This is quite simply a well-regarded series and it doesn’t hurt that Mr. Damon is coming off an Oscar nominated turn and mega-hit with The Martian. The question to me is whether or not this manages to top the opening of Ultimatum. It might and it wouldn’t surprise me, but my projection has it falling just short of that $69M number for a movie in which sequelitis should not apply.

Jason Bourne opening weekend prediction: $67.6 million

For my Bad Moms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/bad-moms-box-office-prediction/

For my Nerve prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/nerve-box-office-prediction/

Nightcrawler Movie Review

“What if my problem wasn’t that I don’t understand people, but that I don’t like them?”

So says Lou Bloom (Jake Gyllenhaal), our central character in Dan Gilroy’s Nightcrawler who barely leaves the screen during the film’s running time and probably won’t escape your mind for some time either. When we first meet Lou, he’s a common thief stealing scrap metal who makes what he believes are captivating attempts at obtaining employment. We immediately notice that Lou has no social skills whatsoever. He doesn’t know how to relate to people. All he knows is how to negotiate but he hasn’t found a field in which his negotiations bear fruit.

This changes when Lou happens upon a crime scene and figures out that Los Angeles TV news stations will pay handsomely for gruesome footage. “If it bleeds, it leads” he’s told by another “nightcrawler” played by Bill Paxton . Lou believes he’s found his calling and soon his explicit videos of horrific offenses are airing at 6AM and 11PM by the lowest rated Southern California affiliate. Their news director Nina (Rene Russo) recognizes Lou’s value in increasing ratings. And Lou knows his worth and uses his leverage to bargain with her – not just for gainful employment but for everything he wants from her. This is done in a pitch black comedic restaurant “date” with Nina in which he makes his wishes explicitly clear.

Lou also hires assistant Rick (Riz Ahmed) and he suffers the endless banterings of a boss who is forever conducting a verbal performance review of his employee. Their interaction veers between hilarious (in a very dark way) and chilling (in a very real way). Our central character doesn’t like people in a manner that’s somewhat reminiscent of Daniel Plainview in There Will Be Blood. Everything is negotiable to Lou and as amazingly awkward as he is, his objectives are usually met. This extends to his filming work and if the photos of a slain family member aren’t close enough to the bullet holes lodged in the fridge, there’s a way to fix that.

For the better part of this decade, Gyllenhaal has made one solid choice after another from Source Code to End of Watch to Prisoners. This is the pinnacle so far. With director Gilroy’s screenplay giving him a truly unique and endlessly fascinating character to work with, Gyllenhaal nails his quirky and creepy role. Russo gets her juiciest part in years as the producer who will go to the same lengths as Lou to ensure success. Ahmed is the most sympathetic person here (it’s not saying much) and he sees his demented mentor much like the audience does.

Nightcrawler effortlessly manages charcoal colored comedy with a heightened sense of tension. A major accomplishment indeed. The screenplay has plenty to hint at regarding the public’s insatiable need for the most violent news stories while we are eating breakfast or ready to turn in for the night. Lou Bloom realizes it and knows how to profit from it. He figures a way to achieve his sick dreams. Our brilliantly realized title character with a career best performance from Gyllenhaal gets it right with that opening quote. He doesn’t really like people. And while the characters he speaks with in Nightcrawler thinks he doesn’t understand them, maybe he does all too well.

**** (out of four)

Nightcrawler Box Office Prediction

It may be destined to become a cult classic based on its early reviews as Jake Gyllenhall plays a journalist in the L.A. crime underground in Nightcrawler, out Friday.

Dan Gilroy directs the picture which costars Rene Russo, Riz Ahmed, and Bill Paxton. Critical buzz is quite positive after it screened at film festivals and this continues Gyllenhall’s trend of picking less commercial and more artistically relevant material. However, that doesn’t mean you should expect much for its opening weekend. After all, “cult film” usually indicates it won’t make much in its initial run.

To me, the question is whether or not Nightcrawler manages double digits and I’ll predict it falls short of the mark.

Nightcrawler opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my Before I Go to Sleep prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/

For my Saw 10th Anniversary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/