Looking to bring in viewers for the four-day Valentine’s Day/President’s Day frame, the romantic drama The Photograph debuts in theaters this coming weekend. From director Stella Meghie, the pic features Issa Rae, Lakeith Stanfield, Chelsea Peretti, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Lil Rel Howery, and Courtney B. Vance.
The Photograph comes from Will Packer Productions, which has had a series of lower budget hits that include thrillers like No Good Deed and comedies such as Girls Trip and Night School. This genre is somewhat new territory to them.
Three years back, Meghie directed Everything, Everything – a younger skewing romantic tale which took in $11.7 million over three days. I believe a strong African-American audience could get this over that given the extra day of grosses.
The Photograph opening weekend prediction: $17.4 million
Paramount is banking on a significant African-American and female audience next weekend for WhatMenWant, a remake of the 2000 blockbuster WhatWomenWant with Mel Gibson and Helen Hunt. As the title suggests, this is a flip of the original with its lead character being able to hear the inner thoughts of the male species. Taraji P. Henson plays her with costars including Aldis Hodge, Tracy Morgan, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Pete Davidson, and Erykah Badu. Adam Shankman, maker of BringingDowntheHouse and ThePacifier, directs.
The gimmicky formula could be a success with its target audience. Its source material was a smash, debuting to $33 million and legging out to $182 million overall. Henson has starred in such high-profile hits as HiddenFigures, NoGoodDeed, and the ThinkLikeaMan pics.
Some of those efforts saw openings in the mid to high 20s and that’s exactly where I see this starting out at.
WhatMenWant opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
Tyler Perry leaves Madea aside for Easter next weekend as he directs and writes the psychological thriller Acrimony. The tale of a cheating husband and a vengeful wife stars Taraji P. Henson, Lyriq Bent, Crystle Stewart, and Jazmyn Simon. The Lionsgate release hopes to capitalize on Mr. Perry’s involvement, as well as Ms. Henson, who’s had some successes on the big and small screen.
There are certainly some similar genre comps to put this up against. The trick is figuring out where it will fall. Will it play like Henson’s own No Good Deed from 2014, which debuted to a stellar $24.2 million? Or the $25.6 million achieved by The Perfect Guy in 2015? In 2016, When the Bough Breaks managed $14.2 million. How about some other non-comedic directorial efforts from Perry: $21.6 million opening for Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor or $15.5 million for Good Deeds? On the low end, what about the measly $4.7 million from last year’s Unforgettable?
My hunch is a low to mid teens gross is probably the ticket, just below the gross of Bough.
Acrimony opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
During last year’s Martin Luther King holiday weekend, Taraji P. Henson had the #1 film with her Oscar nominated HiddenFigures. In 2018, she’s back in the action thriller ProudMary. The pic finds her cast as a Boston hitwoman from director Babak Najafi, best known for making poorly received sequel LondonHasFallen. Supporting players include Billy Brown, Danny Glover, Neal McDonough, and Margaret Avery.
While she’s best known for “Empire” television work, Henson’s big screen track record has been rather impressive with her roles in Figures, TheKarateKid remake, and NoGoodDeed.
ProudMary could have the advantage of attracting some genre fans, as well as African Americans and females (a demographic often underserved with action flicks). I believe this could post a high teens debut, which would put it above direct genre competition TheCommuter.
ProudMary opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
There’s a fatal attraction going on in theaters next weekend as Unforgettable debuts. The thriller stars Katherine Heigl as an ex-wife terrorizing her husband’s new bride (Rosario Dawson). Geoff Stults and Cheryl Ladd costar.
Heigl burst onto the movie scene nearly 10 years ago with mega-hit comedy Knocked Up and proceeded to headline other successful rom coms like 27 Dresses and The Ugly Truth. Since then, her star has been on the wane with lower performing pics and failed TV projects.
Unforgettable stands a shot at being a minor success. These Lifetime type flicks on the big screen have a track record of faring decently. The Boy Next Door with Jennifer Lopez debuted to nearly $15 million. Screen Gems has even slotted a mid September weekend for the past three years with such material and the results have been pleasing: 2014’s No Good Deed ($24.2M opening), The Perfect Guy ($25.8M), and When the Bough Breaks ($14.2M).
If enough females turn out for this, I could envision a premiere in the low double digits/teens to possibly mid teens (that could be stretching it).
Unforgettable opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:
I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million
2. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.
Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.
The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.
Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.
Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.
Four new titles enter the marketplace this weekend to compete with the current #1 and #2 – No Good Deed and Dolphin Tale 2. They are the YA adaptation The Maze Runner, the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones, star-studded comedy This Is Where I Leave You, and Kevin Smith horror flick Tusk.
**In a change from normal practice, let’s get Tusk out of the way first. Kevin Smith, known most from Clerks fame, has directed this low-budget horror pic. It’s unknown at press time how many screens it will open on, though it’s expected to be relatively low compared to the three other new releases. Without knowing a screen count, it’s difficult to post a detailed prediction post on it, so I didn’t. I will say it opens with $2.3 million, well below having the possibility of being in the top five.
As for the other newbies, you can find my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I expect the three newcomers to populate the top three positions this weekend and the possibility exists of a battle between Maze Runner and Tombstones. Current #1 No Good Deed should suffer a far bigger decline than Dolphin Tale 2 and the two could duke it out for the four spot.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $26.1 million
2. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
4. Dolphin Tale 2
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. No Good Deed
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
In a bit of a surprise, the Idris Elba/Taraji P. Henson thriller No Good Deed debuted at #1 with a robust $24.2 million, well beyond my meager $13.8M projection. Clearly the marketing campaign worked with 60% of its audience being female. As predicted above, it should drop precipitously in its sophomore frame, but with a low budget, it’s an unqualified hit.
Dolphin Tale 2 had to settle for the #2 spot with $15.8 million, in line with my $16.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $19.1 million opening gross of its predecessor, though it shouldn’t fall too far in weekend #2.
The rest of the top five was made up of summer holdovers that all didn’t drop quite as far as I expected. Guardians of the Galaxy was third with $8.1 million (my prediction: $6.8M), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fourth with $4.8 million ($3.9M was my estimate), and Let’s Be Cops fifth with $4.3 million (my prediction: $3.4M).
One interesting box office story was the sixth place debut of The Drop, a crime thriller starring Tom Hardy and the late James Gandolfini. It managed an impressive $4.1 million on only 809 screens, giving it the second highest per screen average of the weekend after Deed. This was certainly above the estimates of most and I didn’t even make a prediction on it.
The month long reign of the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ruling the top two spots at the box office should come to an end this weekend with two new releases: family sequel Dolphin Tale 2 and thriller No Good Deed. You can review my detailed posts on each of them here:
I’ll give Dolphin Tale 2 the edge to top the charts, but only because it’s scheduled to open on approximately 1500 more screens than Deed, which still has an outside shot at #1. Holdovers Guardians, Turtles, and Let’s Be Cops should round out the top five in a rather lackluster weekend before heavy hitters such as A Walk Among the Tombstones, The Equalizer, and Gone Girl arrive soon.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Dolphin Tale 2
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. No Good Deed
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (September 5-7)
In what was the weakest box office frame in 13 years, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy was #1 with $10.3 million, right in line with my $10.9M projection. The superhero megahit has amassed $294 million and should blast past $300M this week.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was second with $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.6M estimate. It’s earned an impressive $174M so far and should top out around $190M.
Sleeper comedy hit Let’s Be Cops was third with my $5.5 million, above my $4.5M projection. Its total stands at $66M.
YA romance If I Stay was fourth as it also made $5.5 million, right in line with my $5.3M prediction and its haul is at an OK $39M.
Pierce Brosnan’s dud The November Man rounded out the top five with $4.3 million in weekend two, once again on pace with my $4.1M estimate. Its two week total is a weak $17M and it might reach $30M total domestically.
Finally, the faith based musical drama The Identical (the weekend’s only newbie) tanked with only $1.5 million for a pathetic 12th place debut, under my generous $3.9M projection.
Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson star in the thriller No Good Deed, out Friday. It’s one of two pics (along with Dolphin Tale 2) attempting to interrupt the box office reign of Guardians of the Galaxy.
Deed puts Elba in the role of a stranger terrorizing Henson and her family. The film could succeed in bringing in a female audience and will attempt to cater to the same crowd that made Halle Berry’s The Call an unexpected hit last year. That film seems like a decent comparison to Deed. In March 2013, The Call debuted to a solid $17 million. I would expect No Good Deed won’t quite reach that number, due to the fact that it’s scheduled to open on approximately 500 less screens. Nevertheless I anticipate a decent opening for this.
No Good Deed opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
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