Based on a series of animated features from the 1960s that was highlighted on “The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show”, this Friday DreamWorks brings Mr. Peabody & Sherman to theaters. The film features the voices of Ty Burrell, Leslie Mann, Stephen Colbert, Mel Brooks, and others and will attempt to continue a hot run for animated flicks after megahits Frozen and The LEGO Movie.
The fact that family audiences have had plenty of solid choices lately could potentially hinder Peabody‘s grosses. For comparison sake, Fox’s The Croods debuted to $43 million in March of 2013. That would represent quite a victory for this if it could get that high. It’s possible, but I suspect Peabody won’t get past the $40 million mark. Reviews have been positive and that should help, but ultimately I think a premiere in the mid 30s is the most likely scenario here.
Mr. Peabody & Sherman opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million
For my 300: Rise of an Empire prediction, click here:
For anyone living in the metropolitan area of Columbus as I do – you know that this weekend means a massive event called The Arnold Classic. It is a time when the smell of sweat and performing enhancing drugs fills the air. In reality, it’s a major convention that brings hordes of people from around the world and bundles of money to the city’s economy. And it’s the brainchild of Mr. Schwarzenegger – who still appears every year along with other celebs. In honor of the Classic last year, I penned a post celebrating the star’s greatest films and you can read it here:
This year brings us to the flipside of that coin – “The Not So Arnold Classics”. These are five films that didn’t go so well for the Governator. The Terminator series, Predator, and Total Recall will forever be an integral part of his filmography. These won’t.
Batman and Robin (1997)
Generally and deservedly considered one of the worst blockbusters of all time, Batman and Robin represented a near death blow to the Caped Crusader franchise until Chris Nolan resurrected it years later. And Schwarzenegger’s main villain Mr. Freeze was a low point in which the actor spouted more awful puns than you could shake a popsicle at.
Conan the Destroyer (1984)
One of the actor’s first major roles was the well-received Conan the Barbarian in 1982. Two years later, this sequel did OK box office business but received damaging reviews. It’s generally considered a far inferior product than its predecessor – though it does costar Grace Jones and Wilt Chamberlain!
Junior (1994)
Schwarzenegger broke into comedy in a big way with director Ivan Reitman with megahits Twins and Kindergarten Cop. His third go-round with Reitman was a flop – Junior – in which he played the world’s first pregnant man. Costarring Twins partner Danny DeVito, it turned out audiences found the idea of the muscle bound Austrian with child rather unappealing. This has the distinction of being the worst story involving Arnold and a pregnancy that doesn’t involve his own nanny.
Last Action Hero (1993)
Coming fresh off the heels of his biggest hit, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, many expected Last Action Hero to be one of the largest blockbusters of 1993. However, bad word of mouth doomed the production to a meager $50 million take domestically. The action comedy isn’t as bad as its reputation, but it isn’t anything special either.
The Last Stand (2013)
After becoming Governor of California and taking an acting break, The Last Stand represented what was intended to be a comeback vehicle. It had been 10 years since Arnold had headlined any picture, but this flick costarring Johnny Knoxville went nowhere with audiences or critics. The $12 million domestic gross of Stand represents his lowest grossing movie (adjusted for inflation) ever.
And that’s the Not So Arnold Classics! For those in the Columbus area – enjoy the Classic. I’ll be where I usually am during a high-profile fitness competition… somewhere else.
This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:
While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Non-Stop
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Son of God
Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion
3. The LEGO Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. 3 Days to Kill
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
5. Robocop
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (February 21-23)
As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.
As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!
Of the many dozens of box office predictions that I’ve made since I began this blog, I must admit that estimating a number for this Friday’s Son of God is among the most challenging.
Why? Well there’s several factors in play. There are already stories circulating that churches are buying mass quantities of tickets for their congregations. This would lead one to believe that its debut could be quite impressive. Any movie focusing on Jesus Christ and the Christian faith is destined to play well in the heartland but perhaps not as much on the coasts. The all-time top February opener was ten years ago with Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ, which earned $83 million in its first weekend.
Son of God shouldn’t come anywhere near that territory and this brings us to another factor in play. The movie itself is basically a cobbling together of scenes focusing on Jesus from last year’s History Channel miniseries “The Bible”. In other words, the vast majority of Son of God‘s material has already aired on a highly rated TV program. This fact begs the question: how much of the picture’s target audience are aware of this fact and will it lead to them perhaps skipping this?
Add it all up and this project from mega TV producer Mark Burnett and his actress wife Roma Downey has a very wide range of potential debuts. On the low end, we could see mid teens. On the high end… well who knows? This is precisely the type of project that could hugely exceed expectations and make something like $40 million out of the gate.
I will predict an opening in the mid to high 20s is most probable and it could certainly challenge both Non-Stop or The Lego Movie for box office dominance.
Son of God opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million
It was just over five years ago that Taken became a massive and unexpected hit and turned veteran actor Liam Neeson into a major action star. On Friday, we’ll see if his box office luck continues with Non-Stop. Neeson plays a federal air marshal dealing with a big ol’ crisis aboard an international flight. Julianne Moore and Oscar nominee Lupita Nyong’o costar.
Non-Stop has a rather modest $50 million budget that it should have no problem earning back and then some. Trailers for it have been pretty effective and the late February release date is good timing for action audiences hungry for something new.
Post Taken, Neeson’s star power has generated high teens to low twenties openings for Unknown and The Grey. I have an inkling that Non-Stop could go higher than that. By doing so, it should end the three week reign of The Lego Movie at #1. That’s if Son of God (the other newbie Friday) doesn’t open bigger and I’ll get to that one later today.
I don’t see Non-Stop debuting below $20 million and it wouldn’t shock me if it reached just above $30 million – but high 20s seems to be the most probable scenario.
Non-Stop opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million
20 years ago Today in Movie History – February 18 – Ben Stiller made his directorial debut with the now Gen X classic Reality Bites. The romantic comedy/drama starring Winona Ryder helped establish not only Stiller, but also Ethan Hawke and Janeane Garafalo as rising stars. Its soundtrack was also a hit and include the single “Stay” by Lisa Loeb. Stiller could onto direct The Cable Guy, Zoolander, Tropic Thunder, and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.
As for birthdays – John Travolta is 60 today. After becoming known to TV viewers from “Welcome Back, Kotter”, he very successfully transitioned into film with late 70s megahits Saturday Night Fever and Grease and Urban Cowboy in 1980. After some lean years in which only his Look Who’s Talking flicks did well, he had one of the most notable comebacks in film history with 1994’s Pulp Fiction. Since then he’s starred in numerous commercial and critical hits including Get Shorty, Broken Arrow, Phenomenon, Michael, Face/Off, Primary Colors, and Swordfish. He’s had some flops too – particularly the disastrous Battlefield Earth.
Matt Dillon is 50 today. He broke out in the early 80s in such pictures as My Bodyguard, Rumble Fish, The Outsiders, and The Flamingo Kid. He had a major critical hit in Gus Van Sant’s 1989 indie pic Drugstore Cowboy and a big comedic breakout in the smash There’s Something About Mary. Other notable movies include Singles, To Die For, Beautiful Girls, Wild Things, and Crash.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:
John Travolta was in Get Shorty with Gene Hackman
Gene Hackman was in Target with Matt Dillon
And that’s today – February 18 – in Movie History!
The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:
As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:
1. The LEGO Movie
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. About Last Night
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
3. Pompeii
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
4. Robocop
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. The Monuments Men
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. 3 Days to Kill
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (February 14-17)
The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.
That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.
Tonight on the blog brings me to my prediction for Best Actor and, so far, this is the most difficult one. While Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Cate Blanchett for Actress are safe bets and I picked Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress as a slight favorite over Jennifer Lawrence – the Actor race boasts four performers who could possibly win. Let’s recap them:
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Mr. Bale was a bit of a surprise nominee and he’s the one that I see very unlikely to emerge victorious. As for the others – a 12 Years sweep could reward Ejiofor, though he’s won no major precursors. Same goes for Dern, though the Academy could pick him to honor his decades long career. As a side note – 2013 was unquestionably a strong year for lead actor roles. In lesser years – Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Joaquin Phoenix in Her, Robert Redford in All is Lost, or Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler would have been nominated.
The likely scenario is a battle between Mr. DiCaprio and Mr. McConaughey. With his acclaimed Dallas Buyers Club role, McConaughey is the frontrunner. He’s also won the lion’s share of precursor awards. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had a truly impressive career resurgence over the past couple of years.
With all that said, I have a gut feeling that DiCaprio’s chances are improving. Many of his performances have received raves yet he hasn’t taken home a gold statue. His work in Wall Street is among his most acclaimed performances and voters might feel like it’s his time.
While the argument for Leo is strong, it just isn’t enough for me (at this point) to go against McConaughey – though I’ll reserve my right to change picks in my final predictions post in a couple of weeks.
Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
30 years ago Today in Movie History – February 17 – Kevin Bacon danced his way into the hearts of moviegoers in Footloose. The picture was an unexpected smash grossing $80 million domestically. Its soundtrack was equally successful featuring Kenny Loggins’ title hit – as well as “Let’s Hear It For The Boy” by Deniece Williams and “Almost Paradise” by Mike Reno and Ann Wilson. A remake would debut in 2010.
As for birthdays, Cleveland Browns legend Jim Brown is 78 today. While he’s surely known best for his sports achievements, Mr. Brown has had quite a film career. He costarred in 1967’s The Dirty Dozen and some blaxpoitation titles in the 70s like Slaughter and Black Gunn. More recent appearances include The Running Man with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mars Attacks!, and Any Given Sunday.
Joseph Gordon-Levitt is 33 today. He became known as a youngster on the hit sitcom “3rd Rock from the Sun”. In recent years, his film career exploded with pictures including Brick, (500) Days of Summer, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Inception, 50/50, The Dark Knight Rises, Looper, and Lincoln. He made his directorial last fall with Don Jon and will soon appear in the Sin City sequel.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:
Jim Brown was in The Running Man with Arnold Schwarzenegger
Arnold Schwarzenegger was in The Expendables 2 with Bruce Willis
Bruce Willis was in Looper with Joseph Gordon-Levitt
And that’s today – February 17 – in Movie History!
Seven years ago Today in Movie History – February 16 – Ghost Rider got off to a hot start at the box office. Mark Steven Johnson, director of Daredevil, was behind the camera with Nicolas Cage in the role of Johnny Blaze. The comic book adaptation took in an impressive $52 million over President’s Day weekend and earned a total of $115 million domestically. That was enough to earn it a less successful sequel in 2012.
As for birthdays, rapper/actor Ice-T is 56 today. He broke out in film in 1991 with New Jack City. His other notable films include Trespass, Surviving the Game, and Johnny Mnemonic. His most known acting role has been on TV with “Law&Order: SVU”.
Elizabeth Olsen is 25 today. The younger sister of the Olsen twins, Elizabeth garnered rave reviews for her performance in 2011’s indie flick Martha Marcy May Marlene and has since appeared in Kill Your Darlings and Oldboy. There’s no doubt she’s about to become much more known with upcoming parts in the Godzilla reboot and summer 2015’s Avengers sequel.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:
Ice-T was in Trespass with William Sadler
William Sadler was in Die Hard 2 with Bruce Willis
Bruce Willis was in Pulp Fiction with Samuel L. Jackson
Samuel L. Jackson was in Oldboy with Elizabeth Olsen
And that’s today – February 16 – in Movie History!
