10 years ago Today in Movie History – January 16 – marked the release of Along Came Polly, the romantic comedy headlined by Ben Stilller and Jennifer Aniston. The pic would debut to a terrific $27.7 million in its opening weekend, ending the month-long reign of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. With a stellar supporting cast that included Philip Seymour Hoffman, Alec Baldwin, and a sight impaired ferret, Polly‘s overall domestic haul would eventually stand at $88 million.
Today marks the 66th birthday of director John Carpenter. He is responsible for what I believe to be the greatest slasher flick ever – 1978′ Halloween. There’s also a trio of genre classics starring Kurt Russell – Escape from New York, The Thing, and Big Trouble in Little China. Other notables features: Assault on Precinct 13, The Fog, Christine, Starman, and They Live.
January 16th would have marked the 35th birthday of Aaliyah. The R&B singer was certainly known more for her musical career, but she was beginning to branch out to film with roles in Romeo Must Die with Jet Li and Queen of the Damned. Aaliyah was tragically killed in a plane crash in 2001.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:
John Carpenter directed Kurt Russell in Escape from New York
Kurt Russell was in Tango&Cash with Sylvester Stallone
Sylvester Stallone was in The Expendables with Jet Li
Jet Li was in Romeo Must Die with Aaliyah
And that’s today – January 16th – in Movie History!
15 years ago Today in Movie History – January 15 – Johnny Mox made his debut in theaters with Varsity Blues, the Texas high school football flick that opened atop the box office on its way to an unexpectedly high $52 million domestic gross. James Van Deer Beek parlayed his success off TV’s “Dawson’s Creek” to the film world with Blues. Co-stars included Jon Voight as the hard-headed coach, Amy Smart, Ali Larter (three words: whipped cream bikini), Ron Lester as Billy Bob, Scott Caan, and the late Paul Walker.
As for birthdays, today would have marked the 101st birthday of Lloyd Bridges. The actor had over 150 film credits and to my generation, he may always be remembered for his role in 1980’s Airplane! (my favorite comedy of all time) and the Hot Shots! movies. He rose to huge stardom in the 1950s TV series “Sea Hunt”. Of course, he is also the father of the brother acting duo Beau and Jeff Bridges. The actor passed away in 1998.
Regina King is 43 today. She may be known best as Cuba Gooding Jr.’s tough as nails wife in 1996’s Jerry Maguire or Will Smith’s significant other in Enemy of the State. King appeared in director John Singleton’s first three pics: Boyz N The Hood, Poetic Justice, and Higher Learning.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between Mr. Bridges and Ms. King –
Lloyd Bridges was in Hot Shots! with Valeria Golino
20 years ago Today in Movie History – January 14 – Jonathan Demme’s groundbreaking drama about the HIV/AIDS virus Philadelphia opened wide in theaters. Starring Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington, Jason Robards, Antonio Banderas, Mary Steenburgen, and Joanne Wooodward – Philadelphia would strike a chord with mainstream audiences to the tune of a $77 million domestic gross. It was also a hugely important picture for Hanks as it transitioned him from an actor known primarily for comedy to an actor who showed his dramatic range. The role would earn Hanks a Best Actor Oscar – a feat he would repeat the next year with Forrest Gump.
As for birthdays, LL Cool J is 46 today. One of the first rappers to make a successful transition to film, he’s appeared in pics from The Hard Way to Toys to Halloween H20 to Deep Blue Sea to Any Given Sunday. Additionally, LL has had a solid TV career with his sitcom “In the House” and currently with crime drama “NCIS: Los Angeles”.
Jason Bateman is 45 today. He’s come a long way from his days on the 80s sitcom “The Hogan Family” and his film debut in the unfortunate 1987 sequel Teen Wolf Too. Over the last several years he’s appeared primarily in comedies including Starsky and Hutch, Dodgeball, The Break-Up, and The Switch. He’s transitioned to comedic leading man over the last couple of years with megahits Horrible Bosses and Identity Thief. There’s also been some non straight-up comedies including Juno, The Kingdom, Hancock, Up in the Air, and State of Play. This is all, of course, in addition to his acclaimed role on the lauded sitcom “Arrested Development”. Bateman directs and stars in this spring’s Bad Words before this fall’s anticipated Horrible Bosses 2.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between the birthday boys:
LL Cool J was in Any Given Sunday with Jamie Foxx
Jamie Foxx was in Horrible Bosses with Jason Bateman
25 years ago Today in Movie History – January 13 – Barry Levinson’s Rain Man would spend its third out of five weeks in the #1 spot. The drama about long-lost brothers – one an autistic savant, one a hotshot yuppie – starred Dustin Hoffman and Tom Cruise. Rain Man would greatly capture the attention of audiences and critics. It would win Oscars for Best Picture, Director, and Actor for Hoffman, earning his second statue after 1979’s Kramer vs. Kramer. Rain Man would end up being the highest grossing picture of 1988 with $172 million domestically.
As for birthdays, two actors known for their appearances in film franchises celebrate today. Orlando Bloom is 37. He’s starred in some of highest-grossing pictures this century due to his involvement in the Pirates of the Caribbean, Lord of the Rings, and Hobbit series. Other notable film appearances include Black Hawk Down, Troy, Kingdom of Heaven, and Elizabethtown.
Liam Hemsworth is 24 today. He is most known for playing Gale Hawthorne in the enormous Hunger Games franchise that will continue through 2015. He also appeared in The Expendables 2 and last year’s box office bomb Paranoia.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between Mr. Bloom and Mr. Hemsworth:
Orlando Bloom was in the Pirates of the Caribbean films with Johnny Depp
Johnny Depp was in Public Enemies with Christian Bale
Christian Bale was in American Hustle with Jennifer Lawrence
Jennifer Lawrence is in The Hunger Games films with Liam Hemsworth
Four new titles populate multiplexes this Friday over the four-day MLK weekend – Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job. You can peruse my prediction posts on each one of them at the following links:
The big question is: can any of these releases knock off Lone Survivor from staying at #1 for the second weekend? The Mark Wahlberg Navy SEAL pic had the second highest January debut of all time, far surpassing the box office predictions of prognosticators, including this one. With its remarkable A+ Cinemascore average, word of mouth on Survivor is very strong and it should hold up quite well in weekend number two.
The 2014 MLK weekend may well resemble the same one from five years ago when four new releases all posted healthy debuts. There was Paul Blart: Mall Cop which made $39 million over the four-day while My Bloody Valentine 3D, Notorious, and Hotel for Dogs all posted openings of over $20 million. The four new titles this year I have pegged at between $17-$25 million each, but any of them could do better and take top honors from Wahlberg and company. My predictions do not reflect that though and I believe Lone Survivor should stay alone at the top spot.
And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend’s top five for the four-day Friday to Monday frame:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 19%)
2. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Ride Along
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
4. The Nut Job
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
5. Devil’s Due
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
My Results from Last Weekend (January 10-12):
As I mentioned, Lone Survivor went beyond expectations with a terrific debut of $37.8 million, well ahead of my paltry $21.7M projection. Disney’s Frozen stayed at #2 with $14.7 million, a bit higher than my estimate of $13.5M. The Legend of Hercules debuted at third with a disappointing $8.8 million, below my $11.9M prediction. The Wolf of Wall Street was fourth, also with $8.8 million – right in line with my $8.5M estimate. American Hustle was fifth with $8.3 million and I incorrectly did not have it the top five. The six spot belonged to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug with $8 million, just under my $8.4M projection.
Finally, two Oscar hopefuls expanded their theater counts with different results. August: Osage County was seventh with a solid $7.1 million on only around 900 screens, beyond my $5.8M projection. Her was a disappointment, managing only $5.3 million for an 11th place showing, well below my $8.3M estimate.
And that’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results next week.
While Disney’s Frozen continues to post impressive numbers after several weeks in release, another animated tale debuts Friday with The Nut Job. This is the first animated feature from Open Roads Films with the Weinstein Company picking up international distribution. Featuring the voices of Will Arnett, Brendan Fraser, Liam Neeson, and Katherine Heigl, the squirrel flick is certainly nowhere near the stratosphere of any Pixar or Disney product or anything like the Despicable Me series.
Still, family audiences could be on the lookout for something new as Frozen has been out for quite a while now. Having said that, this is certainly on the B team of animated movies and I wouldn’t expect anything too high. Anything over $25 million for the four day MLK weekend would be surprising. I expect it to follow the pattern of another “B team” animated entry – last year’s Escape from Planet Earth. That film earned $15.8 million over the three day portion of 2013’s President’s Day weekend and $21.1 million for the four day holiday time frame. That seems like a fairly reasonable range for The Nut Job, but I will predict this falls a bit under that.
The Nut Job opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
The found footage horror flick Devil’s Due delivers itself unto theaters this Friday. When looking at horror titles released in January, there’s plenty of them to look at for comparisons sake.
Two years ago, The Devil Inside (a similarly themed movie) hauled in an incredible $33.7 million in its debut. There’s also genre pics that opened over the same MLK holiday weekend: in 2009, My Blood Valentine 3D opened to $24.1 million over the four-day and just last year, Mama premiered to a terrific $32.1 million over that time frame. Another similar title, 2009’s The Unborn, debuted to $20.8 million in January.
Then there’s the flipside. Just last weekend, found footage sequel Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones debuted to a less than expected $18.3 million. Audiences may be tiring of being fed the same movie over and over again and Devil’s Due looks like it might fall under that category. Horror films are notoriously difficult to predict. Devil’s Due has the potential to reach the heights of The Devil Inside or Mama, but I don’t believe it will. The film could also tank and struggle to reach double digits. I think it will perform similar to yet another January horror flick from 2011 – The Rite, which made $14.7 million for its opening. I am predicting a mid teens debut for the three-day and higher teens for the four-day.
Devil’s Due opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
Ice Cube and Kevin Hart team up for the action comedy Ride Along, out Friday. Both performers have had a history of solid box office returns. Just two years ago, Hart headlined Think Like a Man, which debuted in April 2012 to an astonishing $33.6 million opening. Ice Cube has seen his Barbershop pictures and family titles like Are There We Yet? and sequel Are We Done Yet? all debut in the mid teen to low 20s range.
The range for how Ride Along could perform is pretty wide. I wouldn’t be too surprised if it approached an opening around $30 million for the four-day MLK weekend. However, the amount of competition out there that includes Lone Survivor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and Devil’s Due might bring those numbers below that. A more likely scenario in my mind is a three-day debut in the high teens with a four-day holiday gross in the low 20s. It is worth noting, though, that these actors have had larger than expected premieres before, so you never know.
Ride Along opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
After nearly twelve years away from the screen, the character of CIA agent Jack Ryan returns with the fourth actor playing the role in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, out Friday. We’ve had Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck in the part and now it’s Chris Pine’s turn.
Based on the works of the late Tom Clancy, Shadow Recruit is the first Ryan pic not specifically based on one of his books. Kenneth Branagh, who most recently directed the first Thor movie, is behind the camera. Kevin Costner and Keira Knightley costar. As mentioned, it’s been since May 2002 when Affleck starred in The Sum of All Fears. This franchise has been rather consistent in its grosses. Here’s a rundown:
1990: The Hunt for Red October – opening: $17.1 million. Total domestic gross: $122 million.
1992: Patriot Games – opening: $18.5 million. Total domestic gross: $83.3 million.
1994: Clear and Present Danger – opening: $20.3 million. Total domestic gross: $122.1 million.
2002: The Sum of All Fears – opening: $31.1 million. Total domestic gross: $118.9 million.
Shadow Recruit was originally scheduled to debut over Christmas but was pushed back to January by Paramount when The Wolf of Wall Street was delayed to the holiday weekend. It will be interesting to see how the long gap between Ryan features affects its gross. While the previous entries have been solid grossers, I don’t really feel that there was a big clamoring for another installment. When the Bourne franchise shuffled the deck and put Jeremy Renner in the role with Matt Damon out, it opened with a solid $38 million in 2012. Yet that was far below what previous Bourne flicks had accomplished. And that franchise was more current with audiences as well. Recruit probably won’t reach the heights of what Bourne did two years ago. Chris Pine likely doesn’t have the star power to guarantee a huge opening. His other franchise, Star Trek, already has a built-in audience.
And then there’s the competition factor, which is significant. Lone Survivor just had the second biggest January opening of all time and it should continue to play well in its sophomore weekend. Recruit is going after the same crowd that Survivor appeals to. And there’s also Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job all opening which cater to African-American, horror, and family audiences, respectively.
Add all that up and I expect Recruit to have a respectable though unspectacular debut over the four day MLK weekend.
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
Thirteen years ago Today in Movie History – January 12 – marked the release of Save the Last Dance, produced by MTV Films. The hip hop dance flick with Julia Stiles helped kick start a genre of similar pictures when it debuted with a very surprising $27.5 million over the Martin Luther King holiday on its way to a $91 million domestic haul. It also spawned a direct to DVD sequel.
As for birthdays, the King of All Media Howard Stern is 60 years old today. We know Howard most for his landmark radio show and currently as a judge on “America’s Got Talent”, but seventeen years ago his media domination extended to film. Stern teamed with producer Ivan Reitman and director Betty Thomas for the autobiographical comedy Private Parts, based on his bestseller. It topped the box office in March 1997 and ended up earning $41 million domestic. The picture also gave the first prominent role to Paul Giamatti as Pig Vomit, whose performance was a highlight.
Kirstie Alley is 63 today. She’s also known more for her TV work with “Cheers”, but her movie debut was 1982’s Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan. There’s also the financially successful Look Who’s Talking franchise and less successful comedies like Sibling Rivalry and Mad House.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:
Howard Stern was in Private Parts with Paul Giamatti
Paul Giamatti was in The Negotiator with Samuel L. Jackson
Samuel L. Jackson was in Pulp Fiction with John Travolta
John Travolta was in Look Who’s Talking with Kirstie Alley
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 