Tag: movies

Box Office Predictions: January 10-12

The second weekend of 2014 brings three new wide release offerings for your consideration – the war drama Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg, Renny Harlin’s The Legend of Hercules, and Spike Jonze’s critically acclaimed Her with Joaquin Phoenix. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Lone Survivor should fairly easily open at #1. The Legend of Hercules could completely bomb, but I’m giving it enough credit to reach double digits at the three spot. Her likely won’t reach double digits.

Last weekend’s champ Frozen should slip to second while I am predicting holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will battle Her for slots 4-6.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend box office:

1. Lone Survivor

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

3. The Legend of Hercules

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Her

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Blogger’s note: For the past several months, I’ve been doing box office results analysis every Sunday. Starting next week, I will be combining the results from the previous weekend with this here weekly predictions post for the next weekend which comes every Monday. The main reason: I’m usually busy Sunday doing my predictions posts for the next week’s newcomers, which will continue without interruption. Secondly, the final box office numbers come in Monday so I can more accurately update how I performed. Until next time, my friends!

This Day in Movie History: January 5

Director Alfonso Cuaron may be getting all sorts of deserved attention for his visual mastery in Gravity, but it was seven years ago today in Movie History that his previous feature Children of Men opened wide domestically. In many ways, Children of Men is just as much a visionary achievement for the director. Starring Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Michael Caine, and current Best Actor frontrunner Chiwetel Ejiofer, this futuristic thriller was easily one of the best films of 2006. While it was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Production Design, it was robbed of a Best Picture nomination. Men only managed a just OK $35 million at the box office, but Cuaron would more than make up for it in 2013 with his Sandra Bullock space picture.

As for birthdays, Robert Duvall is 83. One of the finest actors in his generation, Duvall’s resume includes To Kill a Mockingbird, the original True Grit, the first two Godfather films, MASH, The Conversation, Network, Tender Mercies, The Natural, Colors, “Lonesome Dove”, Days of Thunder, A Civil Action, Get Low, and many more. He’s been nominated six times for an Oscar and won in 1983 for his role in Tender Mercies.

Diane Keaton is 68 today. Like Duvall, she too appeared in Coppola’s Godfather films (all three, unlike her costar). She’s also known for her collaborations with Woody Allen which brought her an Oscar in 1977 for Annie Hall. Other notable films with Woody: Sleeper, Love and Death, Manhattan, and Manhattan Murder Mystery. Further high-profile pictures featuring Ms. Keaton: Looking for Mr. Goodbar, Reds, Baby Boom, Father of the Bride and its sequel, The First Wives Club, Marvin’s Room, and Something’s Gotta Give. She’s been nominated three other times for an Oscar other than her winning role for Hall.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the birthday performers – well pretty simple. Duvall and Keaton starred together in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II.

And that’s today – January 5 – in Movie History!

Her Box Office Prediction

Combining comedy with science fiction and drama and romance in a critically-acclaimed awards contender? That means Spike Jonze is back in theaters and his fourth feature Her is released wide this Friday. Jonze was a prominent music video director who broke through with 1999’s Being John Malkovich and went on to helm 2002’s Adaptation and 2009’s Where the Wild Things Are.

Her stars Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara, and the voice of Scarlett Johannson. It’s being touted as an Oscar contender and I am currently predicting both the picture and Jonze receive nominations. Her is a favorite of critics with a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

How this translates into box office success is a question mark. Opening in approximately 1700 theaters, one must wonder if many casual moviegoers will look at this as more of an art house picture and skip it. On the positive side, it could appeal to a female audience whereas the weekend’s other newcomers Lone Survivor and The Legend of Hercules are marketing toward the male crowd. With a relatively low number of screens (Lone Survivor will debut on about one thousand more), Her could flirt with a double digits opening. I suspect, however, that it will fall a bit under that.

Her opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

The Legend of Hercules Box Office Prediction

Last year it was dueling White House in danger movies and in 2014, there are two Hercules pics and it begins Friday with The Legend of Hercules, Renny Harlin’s effort starring Kellan Lutz. In July comes Hercules: The Thracian Wars from director Brett Ratner and starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

The Legend of Hercules is highly likely to be the least successful of the pair. Lutz is mostly known for his role in the Twilight franchise and recently for possibly being Miley Cyrus’s boyfriend. He is not a known box office commodity and shouldn’t bring in moviegoers like The Rock probably will. With a reported $70 million budget, The Legend of Hercules is surely looking for a debut above $20 million, but I don’t see it happening. It doesn’t help that Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg opens against it and that picture is competing for essentially the same audience.

Perhaps this first Hercules of 2014 could surprise with a healthy gross, but I suspect it’ll struggle to get much past double digits.

The Legend of Hercules opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Lone Survivor Box Office Prediction

Peter Berg’s war drama Lone Survivor starring Mark Wahlberg hits theaters this Friday and it will attempt to reach solid box office numbers like Zero Dark Thirty did in this same weekend just last year.

The picture focuses on a true-life tale of U.S. Navy SEALS during a mission in Afghanistan with Wahlberg leading a cast that includes Emile Hirsch, Eric Bana, and Taylor Kitsch. It was released in limited format in December to qualify for Oscar consideration and while reviews have been mostly positive (67% on Rotten Tomatoes), it appears unlikely to receive nominations.

As mentioned, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty opened on this very weekend a year ago and performed well with a $24.4 million debut. That film had a couple of things in its favor that Survivor does not: it was considered a major awards contender and it focused on a mission that audiences were extremely familiar with – the hunt for Bin Laden.

On the other hand, unlike Zero Dark, this has a big star headlining it whose action-related pics generally open well. In fact, on this same weekend two years ago, Wahlberg’s Contraband made $28.5 million over its four-day debut (it was Martin Luther King weekend that year). Last year, both Pain and Gain and 2 Guns managed to post openings north of $20 million.

There will be competition for male audiences with The Legend of Hercules, but I expect this to win out. My prediction reflects a feeling that it’ll debut a bit below Zero Dark Thirty, though not by much. Anything below $20 million would be a bit disappointing and this could go as big as high 20s. I’m sticking with low 20s though.

Lone Survivor opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: Jan 3-5

A significant portion of the country was frozen this weekend so it’s fitting that Disney’s Frozen took the top spot at the box office. What’s interesting is that it took six weeks for the animated hit to reach #1 and it did it due to a less than expected debut for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Frozen grossed $20.7 million, above my $19 million estimate and it’s earned $297 million since late November. A final tally of $350 million looks reachable.

This meant The Marked Ones, the fifth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, had to settle for second with $18.2 million, well below my $26.8M estimate. The series appears to be running out of steam and you have to wonder if some potential moviegoers on the East Coast and in the Midwest were too scared to leave their house to venture out and watch a scary movie.

Falling to third after three weeks at #1 was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. It grossed $16.2 million. My prediction? $16.2 million! Gold star! The Tolkien tale has hauled in $229 million in four weeks.

Holding up better than I figured in its second weekend was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It earned $13.4 million, outpacing my $11M prediction. The very R rated pic has made $63 million so far and looks poised to pass the century mark at some point.

Wall Street narrowly beat out American Hustle, which was fifth in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13.1M projection. Gold star #2! Hustle has made an impressive $88 million in three weeks of wide release.

Placing sixth in weekend three was Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with $11.1 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Ron Burgundy and friends crossed the century mark as its gross stands at $109 million.

And there’s your weekend results! Be sure to check the blog later today for predictions on next weekend’s newcomers – Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules, and Her.

This Day in Movie History: January 4

This Day in Movie History – January 4 – saw Jason Reitman’s Juno begin to develop into an unexpected huge hit six years ago. The comedy drama, with a script from Diablo Cody, starred Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, Allison Janney, and JK Simmons. The teen pregnancy tale really connected with audiences and critics and earned an incredible $143 million domestically (its budget was around $7 million). It received four Oscar nominations – Best Picture, Director, Actress (Page), and Original Screenplay (which it won). Reitman has gone onto to direct a follow-up picture that received Academy attention, 2009’s Up in the Air, as well as Young Adult and the upcoming Labor Day.

As for birthdays, Julia Ormond is 49 today. She broke out in the mid 90s with high-profile roles in Legends of the Fall, Sabrina, and First Knight. Things slowed down for awhile, but recently she’s had success with an Emmy winning role in 2010’s Temple Grandin and roles in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and My Week with Marilyn.

Charlyne Yi is 28 today. The comedic actress was a regular on the FOX series “House” and she co-wrote and starred alongside Michael Cera in the 2009 rom com Paper Heart. Judd Apatow cast her in Knocked Up and This Is 40 and other credits include Semi-Pro and All About Steve.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two ladies:

Julia Ormond was in Sabrina with Greg Kinnear and Harrison Ford

Greg Kinnear and Harrison Ford were in Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with Will Ferrell

Will Ferrell was in Semi-Pro with Charlyne Yi

And that’s today – January 4 – in Movie History!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Picks for Early January

And we’re off with my next to last round of Oscar predictions before they’re announced on Thursday, January 16th. The plan is to do my final predictions, most likely either on Sunday the 12th or Monday the 13th. These new picks reflect changes in four of the six top categories. Let’s get to it shall we?

BEST PICTURE

I’ve stayed consistent with predicting that nine movies will get nominated. The change here is that I’m including Dallas Buyer’s Club for the first time as I believe it’s gotten enough precursor momentum to get in. That means I had to take something out and Saving Mr. Banks has been dropped. As I see it, the race is still a battle between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity for the win with American Hustle as a possible spoiler.

Predictions:

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyer’s Club

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

One change here: I believe the polarizing reaction to The Wolf of Wall Street might leave Martin Scorsese out in this competitive category. So he’s out and Spike Jonze, riding a wave of momentum for Her, is in. Like Picture, this race should come down to Slave‘s Steve McQueen and Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuaron for the victory with yet again Hustle‘s Russell as possible spoiler.

Predictions:

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Spike Jonze, Her

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

BEST ACTOR

This is seriously such a loaded category. In any other year, I’d be predicting Christian Bale in American Hustle, Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler or Joaquin Phoenix in Her. None of them make the cut. Conventional wisdom is that this is a six man race and only five make the cut. Last round of predictions, I had Tom Hanks’ work in Captain Phillips left out, but now he’s back in. This came down to a decision between whether to leave out Leonardo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street or Robert Redford in All is Lost. For the first time in my predictions, it’s Redford that I’ve got drawing the short straw. I believe Chiwetel Ejiofor, Bruce Dern, or Matthew McConaughey could win.

Predictions:

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction wise, this category has remained the most stable and I have no changes this round either. As for who will win, Cate Blanchett is emerging as the clear favorite though Sandra Bullock has a shot.

Predictions:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is likely the most unpredictable category that is capable of producing a surprise and my new picks reflect that. Jared Leto is the frontrunner to win and Michael Fassbender appears a lock for nomination. After that, all bets are off. I’m taking out Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street and Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. I’m keeping in my Bradley Cooper for American Hustle prediction. Additions to my list: Daniel Bruhl, who’s picked up momentum for his role in Rush. As for the fifth slot, it could have been Hanks, Hill, the late James Gandolfini in Enough Said, Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips, or Harrison Ford in 42. Like I said, I believe a real surprise nomination could surface here and that’s why I’m picking former SNL alum Will Forte in Nebraska.

Predictions:

Daniel Bruhl, Rush

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Will Forte, Nebraska

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the lead actress race, I’ve got no changes to report here either. This should still come down to Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence for the win.

Predictions:

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

I’ll be back with last round of nomination picks soon enough!

This Day in Movie History: January 3

Eleven years ago today – January 3 – in Movie History is when Rob Marshall’s Chicago expanded nationwide and began a successful late run at Oscar glory. For the calendar year 2002, Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was looked at as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Chicago, the big screen adaptation of Bob Fosse’s Broadway hit, changed the dynamic by grossing $170 million domestically. It would go on to win Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Catherine Zeta-Jones), and earn nominations for Renee Zellwegger for Actress, John C. Reilly for Supporting Actor, and Queen Latifah for Supporting Actor. The film’s male lead, Richard Gere, would not earn a nomination.

As for birthdays, Mel Gibson turns 58 today. The Aussie star (though he was born in the U.S. and lived here until age 12) is known equally for his work in front of and behind the camera. He’s had two successful film franchises with Mad Max and Lethal Weapon. Mr. Gibson has had a number of other box office successes including The Year of Living Dangerously, Hamlet, Maverick, Ransom, What Women Want, and Signs, to name a few. Additionally, his second directorial feature, 1995’s Braveheart, would win Best Picture and Gibson would take Best Director. His directorial success continued with 2004’s The Passion of the Christ, which earned $370 million domestically. For the past decade, Gibson has been talked about more for his shaky personal troubles and his film career has suffered with forgettable fare like Edge of Darkness and Machete Kills. He will be costarring next year as the main villain in The Expendables 3.

Veteran actor Robert Loggia is 84 today. He’s appeared in supporting parts in a whole bunch of pics over the last several decades but you likely know him best from two very different 80s flicks: as drug lord Frank Lopez in Brian De Palma’s Scarface and Mr. MacMillan, toy company owner and Tom Hanks’ boss in Big. Other notables film appearances: An Officer and a Gentleman, Prizzi’s Honor, Jagged Edge, Over the Top, and Independence Day.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Mel Gibson was in Tequila Sunrise with Michelle Pfeiffer

Michelle Pfeiffer was in Scarface with Robert Loggia

And that’s today – January 3 – in Movie History!

 

This Day in Movie History: January 2

This day in Movie History – January 2 – Peter Jackson’s final installment in his Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King, would top the box office for the third weekend in a row, grossing over $28 million. This gave it $290M in just three weeks and it would end its domestic run at $377M, out grossing its two predecessors. King would go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. And the more things change, the more they stay the same. Exactly a decade later, the director’s second Tolkien trilogy The Hobbit is scoring similar feats. The second installment in the series The Desolation of Smaug is currently #1 for its third weekend, though its taken in approximately $100 million less in the same time frame as King did.

As for birthdays, Tia Carrere turns 47 today. You may remember her best as Mike Myers’ love interest in 1992’s Wayne’s World and its sequel the following year. Her exposure from those hits led her to starring alongside such heavy hitters as Sean Connery in 1993’s Rising Sun and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1994’s True Lies. And then… well she went from Connery and Arnold to Pauly Shore and Jon Lovitz. Her mid 90s filmography included Jury Duty with Shore and High School High with Lovitz. Her movie career never recovered, but she did recently last five weeks on Donald Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” (!).

Cuba Gooding Jr. is 46 today. He’s another performer to have hit it big in the 90s and then see his career fizzle. His big break came with 1991’s Boyz N The Hood and that led to roles in A Few Good Men, Judgment Night, and Outbreak. In 1996, Cuba won Supporting Actor at the Oscars for his role as Rod Tidwell in Cameron Crowe’s Jerry Maguire. It looked good for him after that and he appeared in high profile pics including As Good As It Gets, What Dreams May Come, and Men of Honor. By the early 2000s, things had taken a turn for the worse when Gooding starred in bombs including Snow Dogs and Boat Trip. Recently, however, he’s had a decent comeback with supporting roles in movies like American Gangster, Red Tails, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Tia Carrere was in True Lies with Jamie Lee Curtis

Jamie Lee Curtis was in Trading Places with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Norbit with Cuba Gooding Jr.

And that’s today – January 2 – in Movie History!