Paramount Pictures goes for a little Christmas counter programming with the crime drama The Gambler, a remake of a 1974 James Caan flick. Rupert Wyatt (who did Rise of the Planet of the Apes) directs with Mark Wahlberg headlining. John Goodman, Jessica Lange, and Brie Larson costar. Reviews have been mostly positive with a current ranking of 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The majority of holiday pictures out there are not catering directly to an adult audience (Unbroken is a notable exception) and it could allow The Gambler to post a decent debut. Wahlberg is hit or miss at the box office, however and I’m not sure the marketing campaign has been effective enough to bring older moviegoers out in droves.
It may be a wager that doesn’t quite work for the studio. I believe The Gambler could get somewhat lost in the shuffle among the higher profile releases. It could struggle to reach $15 million over the four day extended holiday frame and I’ll estimate that it will not.
The Gambler opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)
At one time, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken was looked at as a potential juggernaut for Oscar season. Based on the 2010 Laura Hillenbrand bestseller focused on the life of Olympic medalist Louis Zamperini during World War II, the picture seemed tailor made for awards attention. Reviews have changed that dynamic drastically. It sits at only 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and has been subject to numerous negative reviews.
Unbroken still has a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination, though a win is out of the question. This will likely alter its box office take when it opens Christmas Day. Starring Jack O’Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, and Miyavi, the film should still be poised for relatively respectable results out of the gate.
The source material is well-known and it could fit the bill for adult moviegoers looking for something this holiday weekend (Into the Woods should do that too). Its performance should actually be quite similar to Woods premiere out of the gate.
Unbroken opening weekend prediction:
$20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Walt Disney’s Christmas gift to moviegoers is Into the Woods, the adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Broadway smash musical fantasy. From Oscar winning Chicago director Rob Marshall, Woods features an all-star cast that includes Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt, Chris Pine, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden.
Woods has been well publicized and should be primed to connect with audiences over the holiday break. Reviews have been mostly strong and it sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar buzz, particularly for Streep in the Supporting Actress race. It’s debuting on approximately 2200 screens which isn’t near the 3000 plus that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken is scheduled for, so that could slightly hinder its potential out of the gate.
Nevertheless with its strong brand name, Disney marketing, and recognizable stars, Woods should get off to a solid start with Christmas ticket buyers.
Into the Woods box office prediction: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
It’s a busy pre-Christmas box office weekend as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie all make their debuts. Additionally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild expands its theater count to approximately 850 screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each at the following links:
As you can see, The Hobbit should easily rule the weekend, however its Wednesday unveiling (unlike its two predecessors) should give it the lowest three day start of the franchise.
I expect Night at the Museum to open lower than its two predecessors, while Annie should see a lackluster beginning. Opening on less than a third of its competitors, Wild should manage a respectable sixth place debut.
As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Exodus: Gods and Kings underwhelmed out of the gate and its drubbing from critics and moviegoers (a troubling B- Cinemascore) means it should suffer a hefty fall. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 should round out the top five.
With that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
3. Annie
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
4. Exodus: Gods and Kings
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)
5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. Wild
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (December 12-14)
Its #1 opening was never really in question, but as mentioned above, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings disappointed with a middling $24.1 million premiere. This is much less than my projected $35.5M. Clearly the negative buzz hindered it and a steep fall (especially with Hobbit competition) seems inevitable.
The Hunger Games three-quel slipped to second with $12.6 million, a bit higher than my $11.4M prediction. It stands at $276M in four weeks and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it will be the lowest domestic earner of the franchise to date.
Penguins of Madagascar continued its unimpressive run with $7.2 million, in line with my $6.9M estimate. Its total is at $58M.
The acclaimed Chris Rock comedy Top Five debuted fourth with $6.8 million, well under my generous $11.6M prediction. While I certainly gave it too much credit, this is a fairly solid haul for a picture than opened on less than 1000 screens.
Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 was fifth with $6 million (I predicted $5.4M). It’s grossed $185M to date.
And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…
It’s not just hobbits, capuchin monkeys, and Annie remakes opening this weekend as Jean-Marc Vallee’s critically approved Wild debuts in semi-wide format on Friday. Premiering on approximately 850 screens (less than a third of the other big three releases), Wild has Oscar buzz and an Oscar winning star in the mix.
Reese Witherspoon stars in the true life tale of a woman who hikes the Pacific Coast Trail in search of life answers. Witherspoon is likely a shoo-in for a Best Actress nomination, though a win could be tough to come by against formidable competition including Julianne Moore (Still Alice) and Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Laura Dern is also being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actress nominee. Director Vallee knows a thing or two about directing his performers to Academy Award glory. Last year, he made Dallas Buyers Club, which earned both Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto wins.
The film is receiving positive reviews and it stands at an impressive 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Obviously its limited rollout will hinder its potential this weekend, but I believe its per-screen average will be enough to earn it a #6 debut.
Wild opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies, click here:
There’s a whole lot of talent involved with the Annie remake opening this Friday. Will Smith and Jay-Z are among the producers with Easy A and Friends with Benefits director Will Gluck behind the camera. Quevenzhane Wallis (who won critical acclaim for Beasts of the Southern Wild) plays the title role with Jamie Foxx, Cameron Diaz, Rose Byrne, and Bobby Cannavale rounding out the cast.
There’s a real question as to whether those big names will translate to big holiday box office though. Based loosely on the Broadway play and 1982 picture, the film trades its Depression era setting for modern day NYC. So far, reviews have been far from kind. There’s also the matter of serious family competition in the form of Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.
Sony Pictures is hoping for a healthy debut to divert attention away from its considerable hacking scandal. It could be wishful thinking. I believe Annie won’t even reach $20 million out of the gate for a lackluster start.
Annie opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
The Hobbit isn’t the only trilogy coming to an end next weekend as Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb opens Friday. Ben Stiller is back headlining a cast that includes Owen Wilson, Ricky Gervais, Dick Van Dyke, Steve Coogan, Rebel Wilson, and the late Robin Williams and Mickey Rooney. Shawn Levy returns to direct.
It’s been five years since the second installment of the franchise which debuted to a $54 million gross on its way to a $177M domestic gross. That sequel’s opening overshadowed the $30 million rollout of the 2006 original, but it ended up with a higher overall haul of $250M.
Competition is fierce as some youngsters may take in The Hobbit while others (particularly girls) may spend the weekend watching Annie. There’s another factor: many of the kids who were fans of the first two are now older teenagers and above whose interest has perhaps waned.
Add all that up and I’ll predict Secret of the Tomb sets a low bar for the franchise and takes it out on a rather low note. I believe it won’t manage even half of what the second picture opened at.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
Over a decade after he wrapped up his historic and Oscar winning Lord of the Rings trilogy, director Peter Jackson wraps up his Hobbit trilogy with The Battle of the Five Armies, out Wednesday.
Moviegoers have been treated to a Hobbit pic around Christmas time for the last three years. 2012’s An Unexpected Journey opened to $84 million on its way to a $303M domestic haul. Last year’s The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t match that number. It debuted to $73 million with an eventual $258M gross. There is some reason to believe Armies could outdo at least Smaug.
For starters, it’s the last of the series which could pique interest for some audience members wishing to bid the franchise a farewell. Reviews have been pretty solid and it sits at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Many high profile critics have gone out of their way to proclaim it the best and most exciting of the trilogy.
Unlike its predecessors, Armies premieres on a Wednesday so a five day prediction is in order. I’ll predict that its five day haul gets over what Journey managed in three days while its Friday to Sunday gross marks the lowest of the franchise due to the expanded rollout.
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies opening weekend prediction: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my prediction on Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, click here:
We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.
As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Best Original Screenplay
No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Best Actress
This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.
Predicted Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.
Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes generally follows the sequel playbook closely. It’s darker and more action packed. We get new human characters introduced that don’t come close to matching the interest we have in the apes. The saga of Caesar (Andy Serkis) and his struggle of loyalty to his species and the human race is what’s truly fascinating.
In 2011, Rise of the Planet of the Apes reinvigorated a series that had stumbled in 2001 with its original restart that was Tim Burton’s misguided effort. Rise was much better than anyone expected. The freshness of seeing a franchise reborn in a legitimately satisfactory manner has been replaced in its sequel with competency. That and amazing visual effects that improves upon its predecessor.
We begin ten years after the events of Rise and the human race has been decimated by deadly pandemic. A small group of survivors dwells in dystopian San Francisco and must access a dam to provide themselves a power source. The problem is that Caesar and his loyal ape followers have set up their home on the way to that dam. And based on the events that transpired years ago, most of the apes don’t exactly trust humans. And vice versa.
Included among the humans is Malcolm (Jason Clarke), who soon forms a bond with Caesar. Our main ape character has not forgotten that humans can be good people and it is a constant source of contention with Koba, Caesar’s second in command who has no use for them. Keri Russell plays Malcolm’s wife with Kodi Smit-McPhee as his son. Caesar has a wife now and two children of his own. The leader of the human pack is portrayed by Gary Oldman, solid as always with not a whole lot to do expect for an effective crying scene.
The last two Apes pictures have been very successful in realizing Caesar as a fully formed character and represents some of the finest CG work to date. Much of the credit, though, is due to the indispensable Andy Serkis and his work to bring him to life. Matt Reeves (who did Cloverfield) takes over his directorial duties from Rupert Wyatt.
As mentioned, there is more action to be had here and it is certainly well choreographed. There’s a shot of Koba on a tank during a key battle sequence that is magnificent. While the action is solid, it is Caesar’s character arc that keeps us interested and keeps this second entry in the reconfigured Apes universe worth watching.
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