Box Office Predictions: April 28-30

It’s the final weekend before the summer onslaught of high-profile wannabe blockbuster hits screens. Our final April weekend brings the Emma Watson/Tom Hanks thriller The Circle and rom com How to Be a Latin Lover. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/19/the-circle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, The Circle should be in for a second place showing behind the third weekend of The Fate of the Furious, which should manage to stay on top before Marvel’s Guardians slays all competitors when May hits.

As for Latin Lover, it certainly has the chance to over perform and could potentially nab the #3 spot. However, my estimate has it rounding out the top five with holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast above it.

There is another debut this weekend and that’s Sleight, the BlumHouse Tilt horror pic. I don’t have a theater count for it yet. Right now, I’ll predict $2.4 million though I could choose to revise once more information is available.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. The Circle

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

In a weekend where six new titles rolled out wide (or semi-wide), there some surprises here and there. One item that wasn’t surprising: The Fate of the Furious easily remained #1 with $38.4 million, a bit under my $43.2M projection. The eighth pic in the franchise has taken in $163M in ten days.

The Boss Baby held in second with $12.7 million (above my $9.2M estimate) for $136M overall. Beauty and the Beast remained third with $9.6 million (above my $7.8M forecast) to bring its total to $470M. That puts it at #10 for all-time domestic earners and climbing.

Other holdovers held up better than my predictions. Going in Style was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $3.5M). It’s made $31M. Smurfs: The Lost Village was fifth at $4.8 million (I said $3.6M) and it’s earned $33M.

Yes, that means none of the newcomers cracked the top five. Disney’s nature doc Born in China was sixth with $4.7 million, in line with my $5.2M estimate. In seventh was the Katherine Heigl/Rosario Dawson thriller Unforgettable. It also made $4.7 million and that’s way below my generous $12.9M projection. I mistakenly felt a decent female audience might turn out for it. Not so.

Then there’s Gifted. I had it outside the top ten, but it expanded its theater count and posted $4.5 million for eighth. Its total is $10M.

The Promise opened in ninth with $4 million (I said $3.2M). The Christian Bale/Oscar Isaac Armenian genocide drama looks to be a big money loser for its studio.

The Lost City of Z was 10th as it expanded its theater count with $2.1 million (below my $3.7M prediction). Found footage horror flick Phoenix Forgotten opened dismally in 11th with $1.8 million, not matching my take of $3.4M.

Finally, Brie Larson action comedy Free Fire was DOA in 17th place with just $994k (I said $2.3M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

How to Be a Latin Lover Box Office Prediction

How to Be a Latin Lover hits stateside screens next weekend and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it could be a decent sleeper hit. The rom com stars Eugenio Derbez, who’s a massive movie star in Latin America. Lover boasts a supporting cast of recognizable faces including Salma Hayek, Rob Lowe, Kristen Bell, Michael Cera, Raquel Welch, and Rob Riggle.

In 2013, Derbez directed and starred in Instructions Not Included, which shocked domestic box office prognosticators when it made nearly $8 million on only 347 screens. It eventually made $44M in the U.S. Lover is bound to be a huge hit in Mexico when it premieres on May 5.

I don’t quite expect Instructions numbers here. Then again, no one saw Instructions coming either. I’ll say it manages between $5-possibly $7 million for a respectable showing.

How to Be a Latin Lover opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million

For my The Circle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/19/the-circle-box-office-prediction/

The Circle Box Office Prediction

Next weekend brings the techno thriller The Circle, based on a 2013 bestseller by Dave Eggers. The pic casts Emma Watson as an employee at a powerful Internet corporation where everything is not as it seems. There’s some other heavy hitters among the cast: Tom Hanks, John Boyega of the new Star Wars trilogy, Patton Oswalt and Bill Paxton in his final film appearance.

The source material in which it’s based has its fans. It also doesn’t hurt that Watson is fresh off the mega blockbuster Beauty and the Beast (and Hanks never hurts either). The Fate of the Furious should still manage a three-peat in this final April weekend, but I have a feeling The Circle has a better chance of over performing than underperforming.

I’ll predict a mid teens to high teens debut is likely.

The Circle opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my How to Be a Latin Lover prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

Lion Movie Review

Garth Davis’s Lion, simply by the nature of its true origins, is both heartwarming and heart wrenching. Yet this doesn’t completely excuse some faults in the rendering of its tale. It tells the incredible story of Saroo (Sunny Pawar), a five-year old boy circa 1986 in a poor Indian village who becomes separated from his mother (Divian Ladwa) and older brother Guddu (Abhishek Bharate) one fateful evening.

The lost journey leads the child many miles away in Calcutta where Saroo is placed in an orphanage that is more like a prison. He doesn’t know the language of the new land he’s stranded in and knows his mother only as “mum”. One of the amazing realizations while viewing Lion is the remembrance of lack of technology in the 1980s that basically made it impossible for Saroo to be reunified with his family.

While Calcutta couldn’t be more of a foreign land to him, he’s soon taken to a much more faraway land in Australia when a kind couple (David Wenham and Nicole Kidman) adopt him. They treat him well and he’s a good kid, which isn’t the case with the troubled second child they adopt a year after Saroo.

The film eventually flashes forward to 20 years later and Saroo is now played by Dev Patel. In his late 20s, he still resides in Australia and is embarking on a career in hotel management. Lucy (Rooney Mara) is his American girlfriend. He’s still close with his adoptive parents (though not without some complications) and there’s still issues with his younger brother. The memories of his former life still consume him, however. A chance suggestion of Google Earth now having the ability to possibly locate his Indian village feeds his obsession.

Thus begins Saroo’s journey home. While he focuses myopically on finding his long-lost mother and brother, it has dramatic consequences with the current individuals in his life. Lion‘s plot is inherently fascinating. The screenplay by Luke Davies succeeds better in exploring some relationships than others. Saroo and Lucy’s is rather uninteresting, while his dynamic with Kidman provides some fine moments. Kidman’s mother is complicated and caring and the actress gives a touching performance. The same can be said for both versions of Saroo with Patel and Pawar.

When Lion reaches its conclusion with a moment we’ve been pining for, it is powerful and includes some unexpected revelations. An epilogue left me curious as to whether a documentary about the subjects may have been more potent. The answer is probably yes, but the picture does a competent and admirable job of telling a remarkable story.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: April 21-23

It is one busy post Easter weekend at the box office as six films roll out in wide or semi release. They are: romantic thriller Unforgettable with Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson, DisneyNature production Born in China, Armenian Genocide drama The Promise with Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac, found footage horror pic Phoenix Forgotten, British action-comedy Free Fire, and period piece adventure The Lost City of Z with Charlie Hunnam and Robert Pattinson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

Born in China Box Office Prediction

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

The Promise Box Office Prediction

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

Before we get to the newbies, one thing seems for certain: The Fate of the Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its near $100M opening over Easter (more on that below). I foresee a drop in the mid 50s for it.

I see Unforgettable having little trouble placing highest among the debuts for a decent second place showing. Then it’s family holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast in third and fourth with Born in China rounding out the top five.

And here’s where it gets really interesting! I’m not expecting much out of Phoenix Forgotten or The Promise and have them opening in range with where Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style should be at in their third weekends. I also believe The Lost City of Z will do fairly well on only 500 screens and actually have it in sixth. Bottom line: for the numbers 6-10, I have them separated by only half a million bucks.

Notice I didn’t mention Free Fire. That’s because I actually have it outside the top ten at $2.3M (which would probably put it 11th). That said, I’ve yet to screen a theater count for it and that could change the dynamic.

So… lots to chew on this weekend and here’s a projected top ten:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $43.2 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Unforgettable

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Born in China

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. The Lost City of Z

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

7. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

8. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

9. Phoenix Forgotten

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

10. The Promise

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

The Fate of the Furious did manage to score the second highest April opening ever and the second highest debut of the franchise, though it did come in quite a bit under my expectations. Fate made $98.7 million, just topping the $97.3M achieved by Fast & Furious 6 (and well under the series pinnacle of $147.1M that Furious 7 did). While well below my $122.7 million projection, it’s still a solid opening that should leave the Fast brand in good order.

The Boss Baby dropped to second with $16 million (I said $15M) for a $116M tally with Beauty and the Beast in third at $13.7 million (I said $14.6M) for a $454M overall haul.

Smurfs: The Lost Village continued its ho-hum run in fourth with $6.7 million (I said $7.8M) in its sophomore frame for just a $24M total. Going in Style, also in weekend #2, rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I went with $7.2M) for $23M overall.

Finally, Gifted expanded in theater count and was sixth with $3 million, under my $4.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

James Gray’s The Lost City of Z opens in semi wide release this weekend after a pretty impressive debut in very limited fashion over Easter weekend. The pic tells the true story of explorer Percy Fawcett (Charlie Hunnam) in the Amazon in the early 20th century. Costars include Robert Pattinson, Sienna Miller, and Tom Holland.

Z closed the New York Film Festival last fall to positive word of mouth and it stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It grossed over $100,000 on just 4 screens this last weekend and is slated to expand to approximately 500 on Friday.

I believe this could perform similarly to The Place Beyond the Pines four years ago. Though there’s no obvious comparison between the two titles, both appeal to a more adult audience and received encouraging critical reaction. Pines made $3.8 million when it hit around 500 theaters. If Z accomplishes the same, that means I have it out doing The Promise, Phoenix Forgotten, and Free Fire in their debuts.

The Lost City of Z opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

Born in China Box Office Prediction

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

The Promise Box Office Prediction

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.

While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).

Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.

Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

It’s being described as The Blair Witch Project, but with aliens. Phoenix Forgotten debuts in approximately 1500 theaters this Friday and it tells the true life story of strange lights that appeared over the title city some 20 years ago.

The found footage horror flick has a cast of unknowns. In fact, the biggest name involved is producer Ridley Scott, who’s clearly in extraterrestrial mode as his Alien: Covenant hits theaters next month.

Expectations for Forgotten are considerably lower. The pic has received little fanfare or buzz and I expect a very forgetful debut. It may even hold the unfortunate designation of having the lowest opening of any of the six titles hitting theaters in wide release or semi wide release this weekend, though I’ll say Free Fire and possibly The Lost City of Z get below it. And who knows? Maybe The Promise as well… this weekend is tough!

Phoenix Forgotten opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

The Promise Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, The Promise will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers but could face a serious uphill battle. From Hotel Rwanda director Terry George, the film is a love triangle set during the Armenian genocide in the early 20th Century. Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon make up aforementioned triangle.

The pic was once looked at as a potential Oscar hopeful before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it stands at only 31% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

Surprisingly, The Promise is slated to debut on around 2000 screens so Open Road Films must think it could do OK. Even with the participation of Bale and Isaac, I foresee a very weak premiere.

The Promise opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Born in China Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.

Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:

Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut

Oceans (2010) – $6 million

African Cats (2011) – $6 million

Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million

Bears (2014) – $4.7 million

Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million

As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).

Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million