Tag: movies

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 5th Edition

Back at it once again with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories as we move to October. Over the past week, I would say there’s been two significant developments. First, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying debuted at the New York Film Festival to somewhat mixed results. I’ve had it in my predicted nine films to be nominated for Best Picture and that changes for now.

The other story is the critical reaction for Blade Runner 2049, which opens tomorrow. Many of the reviews have been raves and I believe it’s increased it chances greatly at nods for Picture and its director Denis Villeneuve, who was nominated just last year for Arrival. 

One further story line is the falling prospects of Battle of the Sexes, which is not performing up to expectations at the box office. Much of the reasoning for it receiving nominations was that it could turn into a hit audience pleaser. That hasn’t occurred and its chances are in doubt. Goodbye Christopher Robin has reviews out as well and its prospects are looking dim.

Per usual, just because I rank something at #1 doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is based on chances for a nomination. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

12. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

13. Detroit (PR: 18)

14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 12)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

16. Get Out (PR: 16)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 22)

18. Downsizing (PR: 19)

19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)

20. Lady Bird (PR: 21)

21. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

22. The Big Sick (PR: 20)

23. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

24. Wonderstruck (PR: 25)

25. Molly’s Game (PR: 24)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

14. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 8)

8. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

9. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 10)

12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 15)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

14. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

14. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 15)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 14)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 13)

13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

4. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)

13. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

14. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

15. Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

9. All the Money in the World (PR: 6)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 10)

13. Stronger (PR: 13)

14. Wonder (PR: 14)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 6)

7. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

11. The Florida Project (PR: 12)

12. Downsizing (PR: 11)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

14. Wind River (PR: 13)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with brand new Oscar updates…

Happy Death Day Box Office Prediction

Timing is sometimes everything at the box office and that factor could boost Happy Death Day to a lively opening. The pic is essentially a horror version of Groundhog Day with a woman waking on the same day that happens to be the date of her demise. Christopher B. Landon, who last made Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, directs with a cast made up of relative unknowns including Jessica Rothe and Israel Broussard.

Death comes from Blumhouse Productions, which specializes in low-budget genre flicks. 2017 has been a very happy year for the studio, with fright pic breakouts Split and Get Out. The budget is reportedly just a teeny $5 million. Regarding its release date, it has the benefit of premiering on a Friday the 13th in October (a good month for the genre). It should also help that It is finally slowing down at multiplexes, so genre enthusiasts may be ready for another horror fix.

High teens to possibly low 20s seems reachable here.

Happy Death Day opening weekend prediction: $20.6 million

For my The Foreigner prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/the-foreigner-box-office-prediction/

For my Marshall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/marshall-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Goodbye Christopher Robin

Last week, Goodbye Christopher Robin debuted in the United Kingdom ahead of its limited stateside roll out on October 13th. The pic tells the true-life tale of author A.A. Milne (Domhnall Gleeson) and his inspiration to create the Winnie the Pooh character. Margot Robbie portrays his wife.

Director Simon Curtis made My Week with Marilyn in 2011 and it landed acting nods for both Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh. He also made 2015’s well-regarded Woman in Gold. The film has been looked at a potential Oscar contender and there’s certainly similarities story wise with 2003’s Finding Neverland, which scored seven nominations.

However, critical reaction has been mixed with few reviews being overwhelmingly positive. Robin is perched at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. A Best Picture nomination seems highly unlikely at this juncture and I would say the same for both Gleeson and Robbie’s chances. The good news for Robbie? It’s very feasible she’ll receive lead Actress recognition this year as notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. 

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Box Office Predictions: October 6-8

Blogger’s Note (10/04/17) – I’ve changed predictions for nearly every film here… UPDATED PROJECTIONS REFLECTED BELOW

After a tight battle for #1 this past weekend between three pictures, there’s little no doubt as to what opens on top this coming weekend with Blade Runner 2049 hitting screens. We also have the Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster pic/romance The Mountain Between Us and animated My Little Pony: The Movie debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/26/blade-runner-2049-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/27/the-mountain-between-us-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/28/my-little-pony-the-movie-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the glowing reviews for Blade Runner 2049 and the feeling of it being a bit of an event picture has me projecting a mid 40s opening. That should give it lots of space at #1 ahead of all competitors.

After that, it gets murky. I have Mountain slated at #2, but its middling reviews could be a hindrance to it reaching double digits (which I barely have it reaching).

When it comes to My Little Pony, my $8.2 million estimate is basically a middle ground figure as I could easily see it slightly over or under performing. That number puts it right in the mix of where It, American Made, and Kingsman: The Golden Circle might be. Bottom line: numbers 2-6 on the chart this weekend could be awfully close.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Blade Runner 2049

Predicted Gross: $52.1 million

2. My Little Pony: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. The Mountain Between Us

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. American Made

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)

It is really the sole reason why this September’s box office was a record one and so it seems fitting that the horror flick nearly returned to the #1 position as the month ended. The pic earned $16.9 million (ahead of my $15.1M estimate) to bring its total to $290 million.

Yet it was Kingsman: The Golden Circle that barely remained on top as it also made $16.9 million (I said $17.6M) for a two-week tally of $66 million.

Tom Cruise’s American Made debuted in third with a just OK $16.7 million compared to my $15.5M prediction. Its best hope is for smallish declines in future frames.

The Lego Ninjago Movie dropped to fourth with $11.6 million (I said $12.6M) to bring its disappointing total to $35 million.

Flatliners did just that in its premiere in fifth, earning a sleepy $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.3M forecast.

In its wider expansion, Battle of the Sexes underwhelmed in sixth with only $3.4 million, below my $5.2M estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

 

 

American Made Movie Review

American Made is fun while it lasts and the same can be said of the characters living through it for the most part. The film tells the true-life story of Barry Seal (Tom Cruise), a TWA pilot in the late 1970s who’s grown quite bored with his job. Early on, he creates turbulence on a flight just to break the monotony. Life perks up considerably when his services are utilized by the CIA to deal with Manuel Noriega’s Panamanian government and run guns to the Contras in what would become the biggest scandal of President Reagan’s administration. Seal’s shady interactions with the U.S. government aren’t the only item in his new job description as he starts a lucrative side business bringing cocaine back to the states from Columbia. This brings him front and center with Pablo Escobar (Mauicio Meija) and Jorge Ochoa (Alejandro Edda).

For most of Made‘s fast moving running time, Gary Spinelli’s screenplay creates a world where Seal is gloriously ambivalent as to the dangerous decisions he makes. He moves his family from Louisiana to the tiny town of Mena, Arkansas where the piles of money he’s earning is buried in the backyard and at new banks that miraculously pop up in the community. His wife Lucy (Sarah Wright) doesn’t ask too many questions, but she also makes it humorously clear that she doesn’t trust a thing her hubby is doing.

The tone of American Made can be slightly jarring if you really think about it. We’re dealing with real-life events that spawned real-life tragedies like illegal arms deals and the drug epidemic that swept the 1980s. However, that’s not on Seal’s mind or the picture’s for that matter. He’s too busy creating his own version of the American Dream and his journey through actual history casts him as a Forrest Gump like figure if Forrest had no moral compass.

For this decade, Cruise has mostly concentrated on starring in a mixed bag of action and sci-fi efforts. Made reunites him with his director from one of the better ones, Edge of Tomorrow. It also gives him one of his best roles in years and a true change of pace as far as material. Domhnall Gleeson is his CIA contact Schafer, who’s endlessly energetic about the chaos his agency is creating. One of the most memorable performances comes from Caleb Landry Jones as Seal’s creepy loose cannon of a brother-in-law. You may recognize him as the creepy loose cannon brother from Get Out and Jones has that character nailed in 2017.

American Made doesn’t necessarily bring much new to the table. Some of its story lines have been covered in much more serious works. Yet it’s got a lot of energy and it’s certainly entertaining, with Cruise’s presence a big factor as to why. By its conclusion, we’re aware that its central figure is creating his own turbulence again and he probably wouldn’t have it any other way.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Blade Runner 2049

24 hours can change the dynamic considerably at this time in the Oscar season. When I made my weekly Oscar predictions yesterday, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying was ranked 8th in my Best Picture possibilities with Blade Runner 2049 outside at #13.

Yesterday, support for Flag wavered a bit with a mixed critical reaction stemming from the New York Film Festival. On the other hand, Blade has sharpened its chances with reviews coming out this morning. Denis Villeneuve’s continuation of Ridley Scott’s classic sci-fi pic from 35 years ago is drawing raves (it’s at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The word “masterpiece” has been thrown around by some critics.

Bottom line: its chances for a Best Picture nomination have risen dramatically. Just last year, Villeneuve’s Arrival scored eight nominations, including Picture and Director. That could happen here again. While I doubt any of the actors (including Ryan Gosling and the return of Harrison Ford in the role of Deckard) will hear their names called, there are other races in play. This includes Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Editing, both Sound categories, and Visual Effects (where it will almost certainly be named).

And then there’s Cinematography. Again, a nomination for its cinematographer Roger Deakins seems virtually assured. If so, it will mark his 14th nomination. The list of films he was nominated for? The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, Kundun, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn’t There, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, No Country for Old Men, The Reader, True Grit, Skyfall, Prisoners, Unbroken and Sicario. Number of wins? 0. There’s definitely a feeling that Mr. Deakins is long overdue for his gold statue and the 14th time could be the charm.

When I made my box office prediction for 2049 earlier this week, I compared my $44.1 opening weekend estimate to Mad Max: Fury Road from two years ago. As of this morning, I’m thinking the opportunity is there for it to come close to Fury‘s 10 Oscar nominations too.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Last Flag Flying

A major piece of the awards season puzzle came into focus today as Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying has screened at the New York Film Festival. The pic casts Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, and Laurence Fishburne as Vietnam vets brought together decades later by a tragedy.

Flying opened the festival and has been seen as a serious Oscar contender for some time. Three years ago, Linklater’s Boyhood was nominated for six Academy Awards and the subject matter here made this an immediate curiousity item in the season ahead. Early reaction has been mixed. It stands at 79% currently on Rotten Tomatoes and there has been some reviews calling it a disappointment.

For a while, it’s been unclear how the three leads would be campaigned for. It appears Amazon Studios will tout Carell in Lead Actor with Cranston and Fishburne in Supporting. Cicely Tyson is said to have a one scene role that is a highlight according to some notices. It’ll be interesting to see if Amazon mounts a campaign for her. It’s entirely feasible none of them make the dance and Carell will even be competing against himself in Battle of the Sexes (unless he’s switched to Supporting there).

The mixed buzz will likely mean a downgrade in my next projections where I’ve had Flag planted at 8th and getting in the Best Picture race. Right now, Adapted Screenplay is looking lighter than Original Screenplay so that could perhaps be the best chance at any nod.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

My Little Pony: The Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/04/17): I have revised my estimate up from $8.2 million to $10.9 million

Lest you confuse it with My Little Pony: The Seance or My Little Pony: The Rodeo perhaps, My Little Pony: The Movie gallops into theaters next weekend with a likely soft footprint.

Based on the Hasbro toy franchise that also spawned Transformers and G.I. Joe franchises, this one leaves out the action and is geared towards family audiences and little girls. The pic is an extension of a children’s animated show that airs on The Hub (which is apparently a thing… I’m probably not the target audience).

In addition to the voice actors who work on the TV series, there’s some familiar faces behind the voices including Emily Blunt, Zoe Saldana, Liev Schrieber, Kristin Chenoweth, Michael Pena, Sia, Uzo Aduba, and Taye Diggs.

Family audiences will have Ninjago in its third weekend for competition, even though it’s underwhelmed in its earnings. Yet it’s hard to see these ponies breaking out in any major way. I have doubts this will even reach double digits out of the gate.

My Little Pony: The Movie opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my Blade Runner 2049 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/26/blade-runner-2049-box-office-prediction/

For my The Mountain Between Us prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/27/the-mountain-between-us-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 28th Edition

Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).

As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Get Out (PR: 24)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

18. Detroit (PR: 16)

19. Downsizing (PR: 13)

20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)

22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)

23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

Coco

mother!

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)

14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)

15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Stronger (PR: 9)

14. Wonder (PR: 13)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. Downsizing (PR: 9)

12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Coco

And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…

The Mountain Between Us Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/04/17): I have revised from estimate down from $10.6 million to $9.2 million

There’s been plenty of movies about disastrous relationships, but The Mountain Between Us brings in a different dynamic. Hany Abu-Assad’s pic casts Kate Winslet and Idris Elba as a journalist and doctor, respectively, whose jet crash lands in the wilderness. They’re the survivors and perhaps they fall in love too while battling the nasty elements.

Based on Charles Martin’s 2010 novel, Mountain premiered at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to so-so critical reaction (it’s at 73% currently on Rotten Tomatoes).

The film’s biggest hurdle to climb could be competition from adults. Blade Runner 2049 opens against it and American Made will be in its second weekend. 20th Century Fox’s best hope is that a sizable female audience turns up. I’m not too confident. I’ll predict Mountain gets just above double digits in its premiere.

The Mountain Between Us opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million

For my Blade Runner 2049 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/26/blade-runner-2049-box-office-prediction/

For my My Little Pony: The Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/28/my-little-pony-the-movie-box-office-prediction/