Blogger’s Note (10/04/17): I have revised my estimate up from $44.1 million to $52.1 million
Arriving 35 years after Ridley Scott’s now classic science fiction work, Blade Runner 2049 hits theaters next weekend. The sequel has been in development for pretty much the entire 21st century. The reported $185 million production is headlined by Ryan Gosling as an LAPD officer in a dystopian future who ends up teaming with original Blade Runner Deckard, played by Harrison Ford. Denis Villeneuve, hot off his Oscar nominated hit Arrival, handles directorial duties with Mr. Scott executive producing. Costars include Jared Leto, Ana de Armas, Robin Wright, and Dave Bautista.
Fans of the 1982 original are many as Blade Runner has become a beloved genre pic. One legitimate question: are younger audiences familiar enough with the source material? It may not matter much as early word-of-mouth for 2049 is very encouraging. Official reviews won’t be out until next week, but screenings have indicated this is a satisfying visual feast like its predecessor.
So how high can this open? The current October opening record belongs to Gravity at $55 million. Even with the positive buzz, I don’t see 2049 running that high. Tracking has indicated $40-$45 million and that sounds about right. In fact, a $45 million opening would match the debut of 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road, another entry in a franchise that was dormant for decades and made a rousing return.
I’ll put this just under that mark for what should be a solid opening for Columbia Pictures, as it’s likely to perform well overseas too.
Blade Runner 2049 opening weekend prediction: $44.1 million
For my The Mountain Between Us prediction, click here:
Early reviews are out for Marshall, which casts Chadwick Boseman as a young Thurgood Marshall in this courtroom drama set decades before he became the first African-American to sit on the Supreme Court. The film comes from director Reginald Hudlin, known mostly for 90s comedies like HouseParty and Boomerang. Costars include Josh Gad, Kate Hudson, Dan Stevens, Sterling K. Brown, and James Cromwell.
With a Best Actor race that’s looking somewhat thin thus far, Boseman seemed like a decent possibility for inclusion. He’s had an impressive career playing real-life figures Jackie Robinson in 42 and James Brown in GetOnUp. The actor has also increased his visibility with a larger audience as Black Panther in CaptainAmerica: CivilWar and in his own spin-off next year. Yet he hasn’t received attention from the Academy.
Marshall is getting decent critical notices so far, but not to the level where Best Picture seems feasible. I also find it likely that Boseman will be 0 for 3 in Best Actor portraying his third high-profile person, unless the picture manages to really break out with audiences.
A record breaking September (thanks to a certain clown) draws to a close in a busy weekend with the two highest profile debuts being Tom Cruise’s American Made and sci-fi horror remake/sequel Flatliners. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
They aren’t the only newbies this weekend. There’s the thriller ‘Til Death Do Us Part with Taye Diggs and Christian themed drama A Question of Faith. As of this writing, there are screen counts on neither. As I see it, both could potentially over perform, but I’ll say $2.8 million for Death and $1.2 million for Faith. Those numbers could change, but right now it puts both well outside the top 5.
There could be a real battle for #1. If American Made manages to debut in the high teens to low 20s, it should capture that spot. However, my mid teens estimated debut puts it in the runner-up spot behind the second weekend of Kingsman: The Golden Circle. I expect Circle to experience a larger drop than the 49% one that its predecessor had. It should fall one spot to third.
With a considerably lower than anticipated opening, The Lego Ninjago Movie is likely to be fourth, though it may have a smallish decline due to lack of family options.
This brings us to the five spot. I am not expecting much out of Flatliners and the Emma Stone/Steve Carell Oscar hopeful Battle of the Sexes is expanding to over 1000 screens. I believe that could create a close race between them, though I’ll give Flatliners the edge.
And with that, I’ll do a top 6 predictions this weekend:
1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. American Made
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. It
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
4. The Lego Ninjago Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Flatliners
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
6. Battle of the Sexes
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (September 22-24)
Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle took the gold this weekend with $39 million, a touch below my $43.6M projection. The sequel to the acclaimed 2015 sleeper hit didn’t receive the critical appreciation of the first, but it did manage to open slightly above its predecessor’s $36 million.
It dropped to second after two weeks on top with $29.7 million (I was right there with my $29.8M forecast) for a staggering tally of $266 million overall.
While Warner Bros has been celebrating the considerable accomplishments of Pennywise and The Losers, there was little to boast about with TheLegoNinjagoMovie. The animated feature opened to just $20.4 million in third – way below my $38.6M estimate. The studio better hope its non spin-off sequel to 2014’s TheLegoMovie gets the franchise back on track.
AmericanAssassin was fourth in its sophomore frame at $6.2 million (I said $6.9M) for $26 million total.
mother! rounded out the top five with $3.2 million for a meager $13M total and I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I gave far too much credit to the horror pic Friend Request. I pegged it at $5.7 million, but it managed just $2 million for seventh place. One wonders if It is simply sucking the oxygen out of any genre competition (it’s part of the reason I have Flatliners rather low).
Three years ago, Angelina Jolie’s war drama Unbroken was looked at as a major awards contender until it screened for critics. While it performed well at the box office, her second directorial effort received three technical nominations outside of the major categories.
Now, FirstTheyKilledMyFather (her fourth feature behind the camera) could be looking at a Best Picture nod, but in a different manner. The pic, which played at the Telluride and Toronto fests and is currently available on Netflix, has received the best reviews of the director’s career (89% on Rotten Tomatoes).
The 1970s set dramatic thriller will be Cambodia’s official entry into the Best Foreign Language Film race and it stands a very real shot at recognition. I don’t see it getting into the conversation for Picture itself, but Jolie could still find herself in the Oscar mix in a way that fell through in 2014.
Sebastian Lelio’s A Fantastic Woman is a Chilean import that made waves when it premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. The drama boasts a 100% rating currently on Rotten Tomatoes and is Chile’s official submission in the Best Foreign Language Film category at the Oscars.
Chances are quite good it will land a nomination there, but it could also make Oscar history if its recognized in another race. Daniela Vega has landed raves for her performance. If she was able to nab a Best Actress nomination, Vega would be the first transgender performer to do so.
In another year, the critical acclaim and history making might be enough to make the final five. In 2017, it could be a long shot because this race is jam packed. At this juncture, Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes and Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri look like they’re in. Meryl Streep’s work in Steven Spielberg’s The Post has yet to be screened, but it sure sounds like an Oscar type role. That’s in addition to a host of other possibilities, including Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel), Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul), and Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game).
That said, there could still be room for a “surprise” nod and Vega would seem to fit the bill. I currently have her listed at #9 in the race and we’ll see how the coming weeks play out.
My weekly Thursday Oscar predictions are coming to you on a Friday this week (sorry for the delay) as the festival season shed some light on potential nominees. That said, there’s still lots of uncertainty with plenty left to be seen.
Per usual, I’m listing my predicted nominees in the eight major categories with 25 potentials for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Once again, note that just because I rank something first doesn’t mean I think it will win. These rankings are more geared toward what I think will definitely be nominated at this juncture. For instance, even though Dunkirk is placed 1st, I wouldn’t say it’s the front runner to take home Best Picture at all.
Let’s get to it and I’ll get the weekly post back to Thursdays next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 17)
8. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
11. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
12. Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
13. Downsizing (PR: 11)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 16)
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 12)
16. Detroit (PR: 14)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Coco (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. I, Tonya (PR: 24)
21. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Wonderstruck (PR: 18)
23. mother! (PR: 15)
24. Get Out (PR: 20)
25. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
Dropped Out:
Wind River
Wonder Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
12. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
13. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
15. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
8. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 12)
12. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
13. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
14. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 15)
15. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (picture reportedly moved to 2018)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 15)
15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 14)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 13)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 10)
11. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 14)
12. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)
13. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 8)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
3. Mudbound (PR: 2)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Stronger (PR: 7)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)
12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. Logan (PR: 15)
15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
You Were Never Really Here (reportedly moved to 2018)
My Cousin Rachel
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 5)
5. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 12)
7. Get Out (PR: 6)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)
9. Downsizing (PR: 9)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
11. The Florida Project (PR: 15)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
13. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
mother!
And there you have it, folks! I’ll be back next week with my latest update…
Blogger’s Note (09/24) – My estimate for Flatliners continues to drop. I’m now putting it at just $6.3 million.
It isn’t the only September remake of a 1990 horror pic as Flatliners debuts in theaters next weekend. The film finds 5 medical students dangerously experimenting with near-death experiences with a cast that includes Ellen Page, Diego Luna, and Nina Dobrev. This is actually more of a sequel than remake to 1990’s version that was directed by Joel Schumacher and starred Julia Roberts, fresh off breakout PrettyWoman. Kiefer Sutherland, who costarred in the first, returns.
The original Flatliners probably benefited from Julia’s mega watt star power at the time. I don’t believe there’s an enormous amount of reverance for it. Sony Pictures best hope is that horror audiences who gobbled up It might be ready for something else.
That could be a tall order. I’m predicting Flatliners doesn’t hit double digits out of the gate.
Flatliners opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Tom Cruise’s box office fortunes have taken a turn for the worse recently with two flops in less than a year – Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and this summer’s The Mummy. The star will attempt to turn that around next weekend with American Made.
The true life crime pic reunites Cruise with his Edge of Tomorrow director Doug Liman and finds him playing Barry Seal, pilot turned drug smuggler for the Medellin cartel in the 1980s. Costars include Sarah Wright, Domhnall Gleeson, and Jesse Plemons. Unlike his two previous pictures, Made is receiving positive reviews with a current 89% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
That positive word-of-mouth might help, but I could also see Made opening somewhat lightly with hopes of smallish declines in subsequent weekends. Unlike most of Cruise’s recent work, this isn’t an action or sci-fi project that audiences have become accustomed to seeing him in during recent years. Its box office potential should rely solely on his drawing power (which has waned) and the approving critical notices.
I’ll estimate that American Made generates a mid teens debut.
American Made opening weekend prediction: $15.5 million
The two-week reign of Pennywise atop the box office looks to float away this weekend as three new pictures debut: Matthew Vaughn’s action/comedy sequel Kingsman: The Golden Circle, animated action/comedy spin-off The Lego Ninjago Movie, and supernatural horror flick Friend Request. You can view my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
There is some question as to whether Kingsman or Ninjago take the top spot. I’m estimating the former will outdo the latter by approximately $5 million.
The continued amazing grosses of It could mean that three movies will top $30 million this weekend, but that demented clown should be right on the edge of that gross with an anticipated drop of around 50%.
American Assassin should slip to fourth place and I have Friend Request managing to round out the top five, albeit with a muted debut.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
2. The Lego Ninjago Movie
Predicted Gross: $38.6 million
3. It
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)
4. American Assassin
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Friend Request
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (September 15-17)
It continued its startling run after its record breaking opening with $60.1 million in its second weekend, in line with my $59M forecast. The juggernaut has amassed an incredible $218 million in its ten days of existence.
AmericanAssassin with Dylan O’Brien and Michael Keaton was runner-up with a respectable $14.8 million, topping my $13.2M prediction. That might not be enough to justify a franchise, but you never know.
Darren Aronofsky’s instantly controversial mother! with Jennifer Lawrence sputtered in third with $7.5 million. I was considerably higher with a $14.7M projection. While critics were mostly kind (68% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences rendered their verdict with both their money and CinemaScore grade (an F, which is practically unprecedented). Expect mother! to take a massive tumble this coming weekend as well with the toxic word-of-mouth.
Reese Witherspoon’s Home Again held up decently in its sophomore weekend at #4 with $5.1 million compared to my $4.5M estimate. The rom com has grossed nearly $17 million so thus far.
TheHitman’sBodyguard was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $2.6M) to bring its total to $70 million.
And that does it for now, ladies and gents! Until next time…
It’s been a big year for horror flicks and Warner Bros is hoping its recent success in the genre extends to FriendRequest, opening next weekend. The social media related supernatural pic is from director Simon Verhoeven (fun fact: Wikipedia is currently listing Denis Villeneuve as the man behind the camera… not remotely true). The young cast includes Alycia Debnam-Carey, William Moseley, and Brit Morgan.
FriendRequest is hitting a surprisingly high 3000 screens as it has some serious competition preventing audiences from liking it. Box Office phenomenon It (also WB) will be in its third weekend and still posting hefty grosses. Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle is premiering and targeting younger moviegoers as well. I don’t believe the $15 million debut of the similarly plotted Unfriended from 2015 is possible.
I’ll estimate moviegoers generally don’t respond to this Request with an opening between $5-6 million.
FriendRequest opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
For my Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle prediction, click here:
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