Can Memory reverse the string of forgettable Liam Neeson pics we’ve seen lately or will it fall in line with his recent underwhelming performers? Slated for April 29th, this casts him as an assassin dealing with cognitive lapses. Martin Campbell (who kicked off the Brosnan and Craig 007 eras with Goldeneye and Casino Royale) directs. He most recently helmed the lackluster The Protege with Maggie Q and Michael Keaton. Costars include Guy Pearce (who starred in the acclaimed Memento which covered similar themes) and Monica Bellucci.
It’s been nearly a decade and a half since Neeson resurged his career with Taken. This second life as an action star resulted in some hits, but there’s been more misses recently. The Marksman and Blacklight took in $3.7 and $3.5 million, respectively, in the COVID era. I see no reason why Memory wouldn’t suffer a similar fate and the gross may even dip a bit.
It’s likely to be a top heavy family friendly box office chart this weekend as DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys makes a play for the #1 spot. The well-reviewed action comedy could find itself in a battle with the second weekend of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (after a lackluster start) and the third frame of Sonic the Hedgehog 2. The adults have fresh product to choose from as well. There’s the Viking epic The Northman from director Robert Eggers and Nicolas Cage headlining the meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. My detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies can be accessed here:
Considering Beasts easily had a Wizarding World franchise low opening (more on that below), even a mid teens start for The Bad Guys could mean it’ll manage to nab first place. If Sonic fell nearly 60% in its sophomore frame, I’m saying Beasts plummets in the mid 60s and it could be a close contest for second between the two holdovers.
The Northman and Talent should hold the four and spots and maybe not in that order. That’s how I have it, however, with Northman just surpassing double digits and Talent falling just under. Both features have solid critical support and could overperform, but I’m being cautious with each.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
4. The Northman
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (April 15-17)
It was an Easter to forget for Warner Bros as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore remained a secret to many. The third entry in the series took in a lowly $42.1 million, below my $48.1 million projection. That’s about $20 million under 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald and it genuinely brings into question whether the studio will move forward with planned fourth and fifth installments.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 dropped to second with $29.3 million and a larger than anticipated 59% drop. I was more generous at $35.8 million. The video game based sequel is up to a nevertheless impressive $118 million after 10 days.
The Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum rom com The Lost City was third with $6.2 million, on target with my $6.3 million take. Total is $78 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once increased its screen count by nearly 1000 venues and boasted a 2% increase in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $5.5 million). The potential awards contender has made $17 million.
Mark Wahlberg’s faith-based and fact based drama Father Stu opened in fifth with a muted $5.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $7.7 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s on pace with my respective takes of $5.7 million and $8.5 million.
Morbius was sixth with $4.7 million, a tad ahead of my $4.3 million prediction for $65 million overall.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s Ambulance continued to stall with $4 million (I went with $4.5 million) for a two-week tally of only $15 million.
Set in the late 19th century, the treasure themed adventure drama The Tale of King Crab hit the festival circuit last year and is premiering in limited release stateside this Easter weekend. The Italian production comes from documentary filmmakers Alessio Rigo de Righi and Matteo Zoppis, making their fiction debut.
Nearly all reviews are positive as it stands at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, many of the critics aren’t gushing over it. I’m skeptical that its home country selects it as their entry for International Feature Film at the Oscars.
Italy got their contender in the final five in 2021 with The Hand of God. Don’t look for this Tale, despite some praise, to claw its way into the competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My initial early take on the Oscar landscape in the major categories brings us to Best Picture! If you missed my posts covering Director and the four acting races, they’re here:
At this early stage in the proceedings, it’s a whole lotta guesswork going on. Some of these titles could end up getting pushed back to 2023. There’s no doubt some of these will fail to garner the critical raves they require to contend.
Yet we have to start somewhere so here’s the first look at my 10 projected BP nominees and 15 other possibilities!
Nicolas Cage may not always be picky with his projects and that gets him into hot water in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, out April 22nd. The acclaimed comedy casts the eccentric national treasure as an exaggerated (?) version of himself who accepts $1 million from Pedro Pascal’s superfan to attend a birthday party. It goes downhill from there. Tom Gormican directs and the supporting cast includes Sharon Horgan, Ike Barinholtz, Neil Patrick Harris, and Tiffany Haddish.
When Weight premiered in March at South by Southwest, it did so to sizzling reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at a clean 100%. That should get a decent amount of cinephiles in multiplexes to see what all the buzz is about.
That said, I wonder if the concept is a little too inside baseball for general audiences. Additionally, plenty of viewers have grown accustomed to dialing up Cage’s new pics on streaming services and not in theaters.
Some forecasts have this reaching double digits in its debut, but I’m going a bit under that.
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
Robert Eggers is an acclaimed director with two critical darlings (The Witch, The Lighthouse) to his credit. His third project is considerably bigger in scale with The Northman, out April 22nd. Budgeted at a rather shocking $90 million, the Viking epic stars Alexander Skarsgard with a supporting cast including Nicole Kidman, Claes Bang, Anya Taylor-Joy, Ethan Hawke, Bjork, and Willem Dafoe.
Just like with his first two efforts, reviews are on the side of Eggers with a current 88% Rotten Tomatoes score. Yet I’m not seeing a marketing effort from Focus Features that inspires confidence (especially considering that price tag). The Witch is the director’s largest earner with $25 million. The Lighthouse took in $10 million. This should top both of them domestically, but certainly not by as much as its studio is hoping for.
If something like Ambulance couldn’t manage a gross north of $10 million, I’m skeptical that The Northman will. I realize it’s not an apples to apples comparison, but they’re both action oriented pictures with no nexus to known IP.
Perhaps I’m feeling generous in that I’ll say The Northman manages to barely squeak into double digits (with low confidence).
The Northman opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
Having already premiered to decent grosses overseas, DreamWorks Animation is hoping for good returns for The Bad Guys when it debuts domestically on April 22nd. From first-time director Pierre Perifel, the crime comedy features the voices of Sam Rockwell, Marc Maron, Anthony Ramos, Craig Robinson, Awkwafina, Richard Ayoade, and Zazie Beetz.
Based on a series of children’s graphic novels, Guys arrives during an April with other high-profile family offerings. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 will be in its third weekend with Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore in its sophomore frame.
That should dilute the money that this brings in. Impressive reviews (94% currently on Rotten Tomatoes), however, could help this open or perhaps exceed its expected $10-15 million range. I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.
The Bad Guys opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
If you prefer Mel Gibson playing Mark Wahlberg’s dad in a drama involving religion and inflammatory muscle diseases and not comedy sequels like Daddy’s Home 2, then Father Stu might be your jam. The biopic is out today and the faith-based experience (a rare one that’s rated R) hopes to cash in during Easter weekend.
A passion project for its star, the role for Wahlberg seems like the type of material meant to garner awards chatter. Yet an underwhelming 44% on Rotten Tomatoes tells a different tale. The artist formerly known as Marky has one Oscar nomination to his credit in Supporting Actor for 2006’s The Departed. Even though three of his cast members were up for The Fighter in 2010 (with Christian Bale and Melissa Leo winning), he failed to punch in.
Bottom line: Father Stu would need divine intervention to score a nod for Wahlberg or anything else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My super duper earliest Oscar predictions in the big races has reached Best Director with only Picture left. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:
These will be monthly predictions until August when they become weekly. Here’s how I have the filmmakers performing at this early stage. I currently have four past winners and a first-time nominee in the mix.
TODD’S APRIL 2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
For my first Oscar picks for the 95th Academy Awards, I’ve arrived at Best Actress. If you missed the posts covering the other three acting categories, you can access them here:
Obviously release dates and category placements can (and will) change, but I honestly had a tough time whittling this list down to 15 names. Leaving out Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water) and Tilda Swinton (Three Thousand Years of Living) or Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling) seems a bit risky. It’s a sign of how competitive Actress could be for 2022 – just as it was the past two years.
Like with the other derbies, here’s how I see the race playing out nearly a year ahead of time.
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