February 24-26 Box Office Predictions

While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania should easily stay in the number one spot, Cocaine Bear looks for a strong #2 showing and Jesus Revolution hopes to rise above expectations. They are the newcomers this weekend and my detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:

Cocaine Bear has generated buzz since its trailer (and honestly the title reveal). It could blow past my low teens estimate, but I do believe the appeal might be somewhat limited.

Jesus Revolution, as other faith-based dramas have, could exceed my sub double digits projection. A third place showing seems likely. If it does surpass my prognosis and Cocaine comes in under mine, a battle for the runner-up position is feasible.

Quantumania opened in its expected range and crawled ahead of my estimate (more on that below). It also received a troubling Cinemascore grade of B (tying the lowest for the MCU with Eternals). That should mean a sophomore drop in the mid to high 60s (similar to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder from last year) is coming.

Holiday holdovers Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should round out the top five. Here’s how I envision it:

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

As anticipated, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania commanded the long President’s Day frame with $120.3 million from Friday to Monday. That’s ahead of my $109.1 million estimate. That easily makes for the best start to the three Ant pics (as was expected). Per above, the second weekend dip should be substanial.

Avatar: The Way of Water held in second with $8 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. The mega-sequel has amassed $659 million domestically.

The sequel love continued with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at $7 million in third, slashing past my $5.8 million take. Total is $167 million.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance dropped from 1st to 4th though it doubled its theater count from approximately 1500 to over 3000. It made $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) for overall earnings of $18 million.

Knock at the Cabin was fifth and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. With $4.6 million, the three-week gross is $31 million.

Finally, 80 for Brady was sixth with $4.5 million compared to my $4.2 million guesstimate. The octogenarian comedy is up to $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! In case you didn’t know, I’ve started a podcast where you can hear my box office and Oscar predictions and the link for it is below. Until next time…

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/movies-at-the-speed-of-speculation/id1668006585?i=1000601007142

Babylon Review

The silent days and boisterous evenings of Hollywood in the 1920s and 30s are meticulously depicted in Babylon. From the gourd of Damien Chazelle, this is his version of Boogie Nights in many respects. It focuses on one version of Tinseltown technology fading out in favor of another. In Paul Thomas Anderson’s masterpiece from a quarter century ago, it was X rated material shot on film being transitioned to video. Here it’s the silent era making way for talkies. The adult entertainment is on ample display at the swank and sweaty bashes that feature cocaine and elephants as party favors.

We meet the main principals at an L.A. happening in 1926. Manny Torres (Diego Calva) is an immigrant doing menial work for Kinoscope Studios. At the company’s debauched soirée, aspiring star Nellie LaRoy (Margot Robbie) literally crashes into his consciousness and a years long infatuation is born. Jack Conrad (Brad Pitt) is the already established screen hero whose shooting schedules seem to last longer than his marriages. Jazz trumpeter Sidney Palmer (Jovan Adepo) provides the soundtrack to the sin while cabaret songstress Lady Fay Zhu (Li Jun Li) supplies sultry vocals. Columnist Elinor St. John (Jean Smart) is around to gossip about it.

The night serves as the intro point for Manny and Nellie to mount separate meteoric rises in a shifting industry. She becomes a silent film sensation just as sound (courtesy of The Jazz Singer) is around the corner. Manny’s connection with Conrad opens doors to big jobs as the movie headliner’s career begins a downward slide. Palmer, meanwhile, becomes a popular if exploited attraction in a series of musicals.

For three hours plus, Babylon celebrates and denigrates the excesses of the era. Nellie’s substance fueled rocket ride and downfall is given bulky screen time while others get the short shrift (Jun Li’s Zhu being one example). There is impressive production design to spare where odious actions occur within the walls. Tobey Maguire’s cameo as a whacked out criminal at an underground function displays scenarios that might make Robbie’s and her costars from The Wolf of Wall Street blush.

Chazelle’s message is pretty straightforward when there isn’t vomit and defecate being spewed. As ugly as Hollywood is, the end result can be beautiful. This is evident in a couple of terrific sequences that show the joy and pain of moviemaking. In one we witness Conrad’s war-torn romance catch the light at the perfect time. In another we suffer along with Nellie as she acclimates herself to the noise being introduced to celluloid.

I wish the gifted provider of Whiplash and La La Land could’ve reigned himself in. The aforementioned segments show how special this would have been with a tighter focus. Unfortunately it’s not only septa being deviated from. While Robbie and Pitt both have shining moments, Chazelle’s screenplay never makes Manny a compelling central figure. Calva doesn’t have much to work with considering his blank slate of a character. There are many known faces that pop up in the crowded script including Olivia Wilde and Katherine Waterston as fleeting wives to Conrad. Lukas Haas is the sad sack friend to the frequent divorcee whose character is similar to William H. Macy’s in Boogie Nights. That picture and Babylon take place in different eras of Hollywood shifts. One is brilliant. The other is occasionally inspired and often maddening.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscars: The Case of Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness

Swedish satirist Ruben Östlund’s direction of Triangle of Sadness is next up in my Case Of posts for the directors vying for the Oscar.

The Case for Ruben Östlund:

After garnering acclaim for Force Majeure (2014) and 2017’s The Square (which nabbed a foreign language feature nod), his English-language debut cornered three noms in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It generated buzz early when it took the Palme d’or at Cannes. The admiration for the film led to his surprise inclusion in the filmmaking quintet.

The Case Against Ruben Östlund:

In Best Director, there is usually a surprise nominee. That’s Östlund this time. The downside is that the surprise nominee doesn’t win. He wasn’t up in any of the key precursors like DGA, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice Awards.

Other Nominations:

None for direction

Foreign Language Film (The Square; 2017); Original Screenplay (Triangle of Sadness; 2022)

The Verdict:

Of the five hopefuls in the race, Östlund stands the fifth best (so… worst) chance at nabbing the statue.

My Case Of posts will continue with Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans!

The other entries for the Best Director contenders can be accessed here:

BAFTA & DGA Reaction

The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.

Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.

While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.

In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).

Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.

Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.

Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.

As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).

Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.

Oscars: The Case of Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

For his brief but memorable appearance as an eccentric granduncle in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Judd Hirsch is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor nominees.

The Case for Judd Hirsch:

From TV shows Taxi and Dear John to movies including Ordinary People and Independence Day, Hirsch has been a fixture on screens small and large for decades. His inclusion here comes 42 years after a nod in the same category for Ordinary People and that stands as the longest gap between recognitions in Oscar history. Besides that cool storyline, he scored a Critics Choice mention and managed to get in over his more favored costar Paul Dano.

The Case Against Judd Hirsch:

Hirsch was omitted at the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA for individual honors. He’s only in the film for about 10 minutes and that’s brought some gripes about whether he should be in the quintet at all. Most importantly, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is probably the sturdiest frontrunner in any of the acting competitions.

Previous Nominations:

Supporting Actor (Ordinary People; 1980)

The Verdict:

Hirsch was a real question mark to make the cut. There’s not much mystery about his chances to win as they’re basically non-existent.

My Case Of posts will continue with Ruben Östlund’s direction for Triangle of Sadness!

For my other posts covering the Supporting Actor contenders, click here:

Oscars: The Case of Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

As Colin Farrell’s kindly sibling in Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, Kerry Condon is the next Supporting Actress hopeful for consideration in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Kerry Condon:

The stage and screen thespian stole some scenes in the main quartet of Banshees performers who were all nominated. Condon has landed precursor nods in all major ceremonies and picked up a few critics groups prizes.

The Case Against Kerry Condon:

Due to Angela Bassett’s performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Condon was not victorious at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards. That leaves her, at best, in runner-up status.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

I do believe Condon is second at the moment and she could manage to upset frontrunner Bassett. A BAFTA win tomorrow or SAG next weekend could make her more viable. If Bassett continues to run the table, the gold might be out of reach.

My Case Of posts will continue with Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans!

Write-ups for the other Supporting Actress contenders can be accessed here:

Oscar Predictions: Marlowe

Liam Neeson has a reprieve from interchangeable action flicks this weekend with Marlowe. The neo-noir crime pic reunites the lead (playing the title character detective created by Raymond Chandler) with his Michael Collins director Neil Jordan (Oscar winner for his screenplay for The Crying Game 30 years ago). William Monahan, himself an Academy recipient for his The Departed script, handles writing duties. The supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Jessica Lange, Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, Alan Cumming, Danny Huston, and Colm Meaney.

Despite the pedigree, Marlowe isn’t turning up many positive reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is an underwhelming 24% and early box office returns are meager. Set in 1939 L.A., it was feasible that categories such as Production Design or Costume Design would be in the mix. However, based on initial reactions, this should be long forgotten come nominations time. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Fraser in The Whale

As a morbidly obese English teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter, Brendan Fraser’s performance in The Whale is next up in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Brendan Fraser:

After a three decade career with films as varied as Encino Man, George of the Jungle, Gods and Monsters, The Mummy, and Crash, Darren Aronofsky’s latest gave Fraser an acclaimed comeback narrative. Since the premiere in Venice, he’s been at the forefront of Best Actor chatter. This resulted in pending noms at SAG and BAFTA and a victory at the Critics Choice Awards.

The Case Against Brendan Fraser:

Reaction to the film itself has been as varied as the lead’s filmography. It missed a Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay nomination. The last Best Actor winner whose movie missed the BP cut is Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart in 2009. Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), who each took the respective lead Actor competitions at the Golden Globes, don’t have that problem.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The narrative of a Fraser podium trip might be too enticing for voters to pass up. However, The Whale‘s divisive reaction throws real doubt as to whether he goes all the way.

My Case Of posts will continue with Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you missed the previous posts for the Actor hopefuls, you can peruse them here:

2022 DGA Winner Prediction

How reliable is the Director Guild of America (DGA) recipient as it pertains to the eventual Oscar winner for Best Director? In the 21st century, the match has been 19 of 22 times. In 2000, Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) took DGA and the Academy Award went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic. Ben Affleck was the DGA recipient in 2012 for Argo though he didn’t get an Oscar nod. Ang Lee, for Life of Pi, took the gold instead. Sam Mendes (1917) was DGA in 2019, but Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) was the Academy’s choice. All others years corresponded in the century corresponded.

The DGA Award is revealed tomorrow night and here’s your nominees:

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field, Tár

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

There’s a 4/5 correlation with the Oscar nominees (par for the course). Kosinski is not in the Academy’s quintet while Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) is. Therefore it’s safe to rule the Maverick maker out.

Neither Field nor McDonagh have taken any major precursors. The Daniels and Spielberg have. For the Daniels, they were the Critics Choice victors. At the Golden Globes, it was Spielberg. To call this is a two-person (or three technically) race seems accurate. Anyone else winning would be a considerable upset.

A little less than a month before the Oscar ceremony, I do believe Everything stands as your soft Oscar frontrunner. Spielberg saw a surprising omission at the BAFTAs where he didn’t even make their shortlist. Due to his legendary status, it would be foolish to discount him. However, I believe the momentum lies with Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert so…

Predicted DGA Winner(s):

The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I’ll make my DGA commentary part of my recap post for the BAFTAs on Sunday evening. Stay tuned!

Jesus Revolution Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping the Jesus Revolution picks up plenty of followers when it debuts February 24th. The faith based drama set in the 1970s is directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle. Erwin, along with his brother Andrew, are responsible for making such genre successes as Woodlawn, I Can Only Imagine, and American Underdog. The cast includes Joel Courtney, Anna Grace Barlow, Jonathan Roumie, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, and Kelsey Grammer.

Christian themed pics are tricky to predict. They can often exceed expectations, but there’s a few that don’t match forecasts. The track history of the Erwins is more with the former. A gross exceeding $10 million is certainly doable. Underdog, focused on the rise of quarterback Kurt Warner, made $5.9 million in its premiere. However, it opened during Christmas weekend of 2021 when competition was fierce. I’ll say Revolution tops that figure while not hitting double digits.

Jesus Revolution opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Cocaine Bear prediction, click here: