After a sizzling limited release last weekend, Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid expands to just under 1000 screens this Friday. A mix of many genres from the director known for horror pics Hereditary and Midsommar, Joaquin Phoenix stars as a paranoid man on odyssey while dealing with severe mommy issues. Costars include Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Rogers, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
Some critics have been quite kind and it sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. Others have called the three-hour opus a slog and predicted that general audiences are likely to have strong negative feelings. Beau scored $320,000 on just four screens days ago for a per theater average of $80k. It’s not surprising that it performed splendidly in NY/LA.
Beau faces more challenging prospects as it plays between the coasts. While it will probably have the third best screen average behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Evil Dead Rise (though the average could top that one), a gross between $4-5 million is likely.
Beau Is Afraid expanded opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
Lionsgate is hoping audiences will be there for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret when it opens April 28th. The coming-of-age dramedy is based on the well-known 1970 novel from Judy Blume. Kelly Fremon Craig, who wrote and directed 2016’s acclaimed The Edge of Seventeen, is behind the camera. Abby Ryder Fortson stars in the title role with Jennifer Garner, Benny Safdie, and Kathy Bates in the supporting cast.
Despite the popularity of its source material, author Blume held onto the film rights for over half a century. Margaret will attempt to bring in a wide female audiences whose familiarity with the book spans generations. Some early prognoses have this potentially reaching $20 million. I’ll say low to mid teens is where this lands.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million
The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.
As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.
Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.
Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historicaldrama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.
Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:
As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.
So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $54.8 million
2. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. The Pope’s Exoricst
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. Air
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
**7. Beau is Afraid
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
9. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (April 14-16)
It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.
Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.
Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.
Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.
Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.
I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).
We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.
As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:
Belfast
Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.
Don’t Look Up
Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.
Drive My Car
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.
Dune
Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.
King Richard
Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.
Licorice Pizza
Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.
Nightmare Alley
Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.
The Power of the Dog
Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.
West Side Story
Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.
That means my final 2021 five is:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.
If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:
After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival last September, Chevalier finally moves into multiplexes on April 21st. The musical biopic is directed by Stephen Williams, known best for his TV work on shows like Lost. Kelvin Harrison Jr. stars as famed 18th century violinist Joseph Bologne, Chevalier de Saint-Georges. The supporting cast includes Samara Weaving, Lucy Boynton, Marton Csokas, and Minnie Driver.
When it premiered at TIFF, critics mostly sang its praises. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 95%. While nearly all reviews are positive, they are not to a level where Best Picture consideration at the Oscars is feasible (the April release date basically confirms that).
The Golden Globes could be a different story. If distributor Searchlight slots Chevalier in Musical/Comedy (which would be the wise play), both the movie and Harrison’s work could contend.
Given the period setting, the Academy could look at Production Design or Costume Design (perhaps even Sound). It’s also possible that it ends up lost in the shuffle at year’s end. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant finds Jake Gyllenhaal back in Jarhead territory in this war thriller. It marks Ritchie’s second release of 2023 after Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre flopped last month. Formerly titled The Interpreter, costars include Dar Salim, Alexander Ludwig, Antony Starr, Emily Beecham, and Jonny Lee Miller.
Gyllenhaal’s previous action flick was a year ago with Ambulance. It performed below expectations with an $8.6 million start. Ritchie’s aforementioned Guerre managed only $3 million in its unfortunate opening.
The Covenant doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I think it’ll have a higher premiere than the director’s last effort, but lower than its lead’s predecessor.
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.
The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.
Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.
Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:
Toni Collette has had a fascinating filmography when it comes to recognition from major awards shows. Despite plenty of acclaimed performances across all genres, her sole nod from the Academy came in Supporting Actress for 1999’s The Sixth Sense. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes) didn’t mention her for Sense, but have nominated her twice in lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy for her breakout role in 1995’s Muriel’s Wedding and 2006’s Little Miss Sunshine. Critics Choice, meanwhile, singled her out for 2018’s Hereditary. In other words, there’s no consistency to be found.
This Friday, Collette headlines the whacky (get it?) crime comedy Mafia Mamma. She plays a middle-aged suburbanite thrust into the high concept of inheriting Cosa Nostra duties. Catherine Hardwicke (maker of Thirteen and Twilight) directs with a supporting cast including Monica Bellucci, Sophia Nomvete, Eduardo Scarpetta, Alfonso Perugini, and Francesco Mastroianni.
The Bleecker Street production wasn’t made for Academy consideration. However, it’s not crazy to think Collette could contend for another Actress mention in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes (35 years after Michelle Pfeiffer was up in the same category for Married to the Mob).
Yet the reviews might have you pondering if Collette owed a debt to someone. Critics are analyzing this rather harshly with a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. It’s safe to assume that Mamma won’t be up for anything. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Reviews are out for this Friday’s Renfield and the general consensus is that it doesn’t suck. From The Lego Batman Movie and The Tomorrow War maker Chris McKay, Nicolas Cage stars as Dracula with Nicholas Hoult as his title character employee. Awkwafina, Ben Schwartz, Adrian Martinez, and Shohreh Aghdashloo costar.
With a 72% Rotten Tomatoes score, the bulk of the praise is going to Cage for his unsurprisingly demented work as the iconic vampire. Universal is certainly not looking at this as an awards contender, but it’s fair to wonder whether a tech race like Makeup and Hairstyling could be in play. Horror comedies have seen past successes there, including 80s winners An American Werewolf in London and Beetlejuice. In recent years, the genre has been underrepresented. I wouldn’t expect Renfield to change that, but it’s at least possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The title card for 65 doesn’t emerge onscreen until 16 minutes into the runtime. That’s actually about one-sixth of the way through and (I think) it’s meant to serve as a surprise reveal. The trailer already spoiled it because (umm… spoiler alert?) that number refers to 65 million years ago on Earth when so-so looking CG dinosaurs roamed freely. I suspect a lot more roamed freely, but this movie’s budget might not have supported Jurassic Park or World level sizes.
Mills (Adam Driver) is a pilot on the planet Somaris whose sick daughter (Chloe Coleman) causes him to take on a two-year expedition to pay for her treatment. When an asteroid field causes his ship to crash, he lands on a planet filled the aforementioned creatures. It turns out (as we find either via TV spots, trailers, or after 16 minutes) that this extinction level event is about to make the dinos disappear. Alien Mills has collided into our planet at an inopportune time. He discovers one survivor from the accident – a preteen who speaks a foreign language named Koa (Ariana Greenblatt). The duo must find the other half of the wreckage lying atop a mountain that contains an escape hatch.
It’s a long haul to that locale as their words are lost in translation and future relics hunt them down. They do manage to bond and, yes, there are correlations to his ill offspring. The script from directors Scott Beck and Bryan Woods (who’ve done much better when they penned A Quiet Place) injects some humor into their interplay for about two or three minutes. A tone of somberness rules this for the remaining hour and a half.
As they make their uphill climb to safety, I was disappointed in how flat 65 feels. The effects are mostly bland. Of course, technicians haven’t really improved dino design since Jurassic Park 30 years ago and this is no exception. There is some occasional striking production design. Driver is a fine actor with a nothing part and there’s little character development with Koa either. At its best, this is serviceable. For the most part, what is happening on Earth is unremarkable.
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