Tag: Mortal Kombat

May 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Critically hailed horror flick Obsession and Guy Ritchie’s action thriller In the Grey hope for breakout performances as holdovers look to rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Obsession Box Office Prediction
In the Grey Box Office Prediction

Obsession is a genuine question mark with solid reviews on its side and a chance to exceed expectations. I’m playing it safe and putting it just under double digits and that likely would mean a fifth place showing. However, a best case scenario could be a debut in third.

I don’t see In the Grey outdoing estimates and my mid single digits projection leaves Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal’s latest in sixth.

Mother’s Day weekend saw The Devil Wears Prada 2 hold up better than I assumed (more on that below). This weekend, I think Michael has a terrific shot at jumping from third to first. The musical biopic may only ease in the low 30s while Prada should decline over 40%.

Mortal Kombat II‘s plummet should be more severe in the mid 60s while The Sheep Detectives could experience a meager dip with family audiences catching up in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $25.8 million

2. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $23 million

3. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

6. In the Grey

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

The Devil Wears Prada 2 took advantage of the Mother’s Day frame with a second weekend in 1st at $41.6 million. The sequel bested my $36 million prediction for a commendable two-week total of $143 million. It has already (not adjusted for inflation) topped the 2006 original’s $124 million domestic haul.

Mortal Kombat II kicked off at the lower end of prognoses with $38.5 million in the runner-up spot, not matching my kinder $43.1 million call. While the martial arts action sequel’s performance surpassed the $23 million that its 2021 predecessor debuted with, COVID complications and a simultaneous HBO Max release make that comparison tricky.

Michael was third in weekend #3 with $37.9 million, on target with my $37.6 million take. The record-setter for its genre grew to $241 million stateside.

The Sheep Detectives was fourth with $15 million, in line with my $14.6 million forecast. While parents and kiddos didn’t exactly (apologies) flock to it, the road ahead looks bright with encouraging word-of-mouth.

James Cameron’s concert doc Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) rounded out the top five at $7 million, not quite reaching my $8.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Video game based martial arts sequel Mortal Kombat II looks to kick off in the #1 spot while family friendly mystery The Sheep Detectives and concert pic Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Mortal Kombat II Box Office Prediction
The Sheep Detectives Box Office Prediction
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Box Office Prediction

2021’s Mortal Kombat franchise reboot faced hurdles from COVID related closures, but still managed to significantly top expectations with a $21 million start. It is anticipated that the sequel could double that figure and that’s where I’m projecting it. If it underwhelms and doesn’t match my prediction, a #1 debut could be in jeopardy.

That’s because holdovers The Devil Wears Prada and Michael loom. The former performed in line with its general anticipated range (more on that below) while Michael showed sturdy legs in its sophomore outing. I do believe the former will be more front-loaded with a drop over 50% (though the Mother’s Day audience could help). If Michael falls less than 35% (definitely achievable), it could stay in the runner-up position.

The other newbies should follow. The Sheep Detectives with Hugh Jackman appears headed for a fourth place showing in the lower teens. I have the Billie Eilish concert film (directed by James Cameron!) just under double digits and rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $37.6 million

3. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $36 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

5. Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D)

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

While not quite beginning in grand fashion and exceeding expectations like Michael did, The Devil Wears Prada 2 still easily ruled the charts. With Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others reprising their roles from 20 years ago, the sequel hauled in $76.7 million. While that’s below my $86.5 million prediction, it is still a laudable figure. As mentioned above, the opening could be somewhat top heavy.

Michael showed commendable movement in second with a 44% decline at $54.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $51 million take as the record-setting biopic has earned $184 million in two weeks.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was third with $12.6 million, in line with my $12.1 million projection. The animated sequel crossed a milestone after five weeks with $402 million.

Project Hail Mary was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.2 million) for a seven-week tally of $318 million.

Haunted house horror flick Hokum, sporting fresh reviews, was fifth with $6.4 million. The Adam Scott headlined feature managed to outdo my $4.2 million forecast.

Finally, Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of Animal Farm flopped in sixth place with only $3.3 million though it did get beyond my $2.7 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Mortal Kombat II Box Office Prediction

Arriving in theaters five years after its predecessor, video game based Mortal Kombat II hopes to kick off with big numbers on May 8th. The martial arts sequel is actually the fourth overall feature in a franchise that began over 30 years ago, but was reinvigorated in April of 2021. Simon McQuoid returns as director with returning cast members Jessica McNamee, Josh Lawson, Ludi Lin, Mehcad Brooks, Lewis Tan, Damon Herriman, Chin Han, Tadanobu Asano, Joe Taslim, and Hiroyuki Sanada. New faces to the series include Karl Urban, Adeline Rudolph, and Tati Gabrielle.

The Warner Bros/New Line production is banking on the follow-up improving on the last entry. Keep in mind that 2021’s Kombat debuted in the midst of COVID closures and was released simultaneously on HBO Max. It still managed to exceed expectations with a $23 million premiere. That start was front-loaded with an eventual domestic tally of $42 million (the sophomore frame drop was a whopping 73%).

Even with that in mind, the outlook looks rosy that fans of the IP will be game for part II. I’m projecting it matches or even exceeds part 1’s overall take in the first weekend.

Mortal Kombat II opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million

For my The Sheep Detectives prediction, click here:

The Sheep Detectives Box Office Prediction

For my Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) prediction, click here:

Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Box Office Prediction

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction

One of the biggest box office surprises of 2021 was the haul of Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train in the spring. While it finished #2 behind Mortal Kombat, the $21 million start and $13k+ per screen average was astonishing.

On March 3rd, the Japanese animated franchise appears again in multiplexes with To the Swordsmith Village. This is not a sequel to the 2021 pic. Haruo Sotozaki, like in Train, conducts the directorial assignment that shows the 10th and 11th episodes of the Toho and Aniplex property.

Distributed stateside by Sony/Crunchyroll, I’ll be frank with this projection. Without a theater count (which I’ve yet to see), this is a highly tricky call to make. Train could have been lightning in a bottle or we may witness another massive over performance with Village. For now I’ll say high single digits since this appears to be a limited release that viewers don’t have to book passage to a multiplex to watch.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my Creed III prediction, click here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction

For my Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre prediction, click here:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Reminiscence Box Office Prediction

Hugh Jackman makes a return to sci-fi next weekend with Reminiscence. The film (reportedly budgeted at just under $70 million) is the rare summer feature in this genre not based on a known property. It marks the directorial debut of Lisa Joy, best known for co-creating HBO’s Westworld. Costars include Rebecca Ferguson, Thandiwe Newton, Cliff Curtis, and Marina de Tavira.

The Home Box Office connections are strong. Since this a Warner Bros property, the pic will simultaneously have its 30 day HBO Max availability. Originally slated for April before it traded with Mortal Kombat, the film faces some challenges. This might seem minor, but the title doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. More importantly, Reminiscence opens against the Michael Keaton/Maggie Q/Samuel L. Jackson thriller The Protege and they’ll be battling for the same audience. Both may suffer as a result.

Add in the Delta variant concerns and I really question whether this gets past $10 million. My gut says to put it under.

Reminiscence opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million

For my PAW Patrol: The Movie prediction, click here:

PAW Patrol: The Movie Box Office Prediction

For my The Protege prediction, click here:

The Protege Box Office Prediction

For my The Night House prediction, click here:

The Night House Box Office Prediction

May 14-16 Box Office Predictions

It’s been a minute since we have had four new releases to ponder, but that’s the situation this weekend as theaters continue to open their doors. The ninth pic in the Saw franchise Spiral, Angelina Jolie’s thriller Those Who Wish Me Dead, the Zack Snyder directed zombie fest Army of the Dead, and tech suspense flick Profile all open on Friday. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be found here:

Spiral Box Office Prediction

Those Who Wish Me Dead Box Office Prediction

Army of the Dead Box Office Prediction

Profile Box Office Prediction

Spiral should have no trouble scoring a #1 premiere. The question is: what kinda Saw bucks are we talking? I think this could certainly over perform (word of mouth is decent), but my estimate puts it in line with the last entry in the series – 2017’s Jigsaw. 

The runner-up slot should go to Ms. Jolie and her joint venture with Warner Bros/HBO Max. However, unlike the recent Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat, a start north of $10 million (and certainly $20 million) seems unlikely.

Blogger’s Note: Dead prediction downgraded to $3.8 million

Jason Statham’s Wrath of Man should fall to third after its opening met expectations (more on that below). I anticipate his latest action tale to lose a bit more than half its audience.

Here’s where things get a little interesting. Army of the Dead is the first Netflix release to open on a fairly wide screen count (at least 600). If that holds, the potential for a $2-$3 million haul is feasible. It could even do more. What’s unknown at this juncture is whether the streaming giant will actually report its grosses. They haven’t in the past in their limited theatrical runs, but we are venturing into new territory. With this question unanswered, I’ll be doing a top five that includes Army and one that does not.

As for Profile, it’s hitting a large 2000 screens. Yet I suspect its low profile and my predicted $1.2 million forecast could prevent it from making the top five in either scenario.

And with that, here’s my two versions of this weekend’s top five:

1. Spiral

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

2. Wrath of Man

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

3. Those Who Wish Me Dead

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

4. Army of the Dead

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.4 million

***If no Army grosses, Raya would move up to #4 and I’ll say Demon Slayer is fifth with $1.3 million

Box Office Results (May 7-9)

As mentioned, Wrath of Man took the pole position and met expectations with $8.3 million. How much did it meet them? It certainly met mine as my projection was $8.3 million!

Demon Slayer dropped to second with $2.7 million, on par with my $2.9 million estimate. Its three-week tally is $39 million.

Also in its third frame, Mortal Kombat was third with $2.4 million compared to my $2.7 million take. Overall gross stands at $37 million.

Godzilla vs. Kong was fourth with $1.9 million (I said $2 million). The monster mash continues to inch toward the century mark at $93 million.

Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon flew off with another $1.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It has earned $43 million.

Finally, the Billy Crystal/Tiffany Haddish dramedy Here Today showed zero staying power as it opened in seventh with $1 million. I was a bit more generous at $1.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Those Who Wish Me Dead Box Office Prediction

Bloggers Update: Prediction downgraded to $3.8 million

Angelina Jolie tries to heat up the box office on May 14 with the simultaneous theatrical and HBO Max release of Those Who Wish Me Dead. The thriller casts Jolie as a fire warden attempting to protect a young boy whose father was murdered by assassins. Taylor Sheridan, director of Wind River and co-creator of the hit series Yellowstone, serves behind the camera. Costars include Finn Little, Nicholas Hoult, Jon Bernthal, and Tyler Perry.

Warner Bros. has had successes recently with their strategy of putting their product on the big screen and thru HBO’s streaming platform. This resulted in impressive openings for Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat over the past two months. This one could be a tougher sell due to it not being part of a known franchise.

Dead will need to rely on an adult crowd turning out and Jolie’s star power. One recent comp is The Little Things with Denzel Washington. Also a Warner/HBO venture, the thriller opened domestically with $4.8 million. More theaters have opened their doors since and capacity has increased. That leads me to think that Jolie’s latest could exceed that gross, but perhaps not by much. If my estimate holds, Dead should place second next weekend behind Spiral: From the Book of Saw.

Those Who Wish Me Dead opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Spiral: From the Book of Saw prediction, click here:

Spiral Box Office Prediction

For my Army of the Dead prediction, click here:

Army of the Dead Box Office Prediction

For my Profile prediction, click here:

Profile Box Office Prediction

May 7-9 Box Office Predictions

The first full weekend of May at the box office brings us the Guy Ritchie directed action thriller Wrath of Man starring Jason Statham and Billy Crystal’s comedy Here Today with Tiffany Haddish. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

Wrath of Man Box Office Prediction

Here Today Box Office Prediction

Considering the precipitous drops that Demon Slayer and Mortal Kombat experienced in their sophomore frames (more on that below), Statham’s latest should have no trouble topping the charts in the $8-9 million range. The 1000 theater count for Here Today should limit its potential, but I do have it managing to round out the top five.

Slayer and Kombat are unlikely to see the 70+ percentage falls in their third weekends and place 2-3 with Godzilla vs. Kong at fourth. And with that – here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:

1. Wrath of Man

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

2. Demon Slayer

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

3. Mortal Kombat

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

4. Godzilla vs. Kong

Predicted Gross: $2 million

5. Here Today

Predicted Gross: $1.5 million

Box Office Results (April 30-May 2)

As mentioned, both Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer fell hard after their $20 million plus premieres the previous weekend. Demon Slayer vaulted to first with $6.4 million compared to my $6.2 million estimate for a $34 million ten day total.

Kombat dipped to 2nd with $6.2 million (well under my $9.1 million projection) and it also stands at $34 million.

Godzilla vs. Kong was third at $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for a five-week tally of $90 million. It could still manage to hit the century club and it would become the first COVID release to do so.

The critically drubbed horror pic Separation opened in fourth with $1.8 million, a bit below my $2.3 million take.

Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon was fifth with $1.3 million (I went with $1.6 million). Total is $41 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 30-May 2 Box Office Predictions

It’s been a long time coming since my weekly top 5 box office predictions (the middle of March in 2020 to be precise), but I am happily returning to the format today! As proven by the larger expected debuts of Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer over the previous weekend (as well as the huge returns for Godzilla vs. Kong), it is time to get back in the game!

There is only one new wide release this Friday and it’s the fright flick Separation. To view my detailed prediction post for it, click here:

Separation Box Office Prediction

Horror movies always have the opportunity to outdo expectations, but I’m not anticipating much here. My $2.3 million estimate puts it in a battle with Godzilla vs. Kong for the #3 spot and I’ll give the iconic monsters an edge.

The story of last weekend was seeing two pics (Kombat and Demon) gross over $20 million in their starts. You have to go all the way back to January 2020 for the last time we saw two newbies debut north of that. Kombat made off with $23.3 million (ahead of my $17.5 million forecast) while Demon took in $21.1 million (considerably more than my $10.7 million projection).

I do foresee both of them having precipitous drops in their sophomore frames. Godzilla vs. Kong, for instance, fell a steep 57% in its second outing and I believe the dip for Kombat could be over 60%. As for the anime hit Demon, that’s a genre in which stateside audiences may have rushed to view it. A drop around 70% would not be a surprise. That means no movie may top $10 million as we close April out.

That said, signs of a box office reemergence are all around and it is with pleasure (for the first time in over one year) that I give you my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead!

1. Mortal Kombat

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

2. Demon Slayer

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

3. Godzilla vs. Kong

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

4. Separation

Predicted Gross: $2.3 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train Box Office Prediction

After becoming the highest grossing film in Japan’s history, the R-rated anime fantasy Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train hits domestic theaters this weekend before its June digital release. A sequel to a 2019 series, Haruo Sotozaki directs the pic which has already grossed close to half a billion worldwide. Overall it’s already achieved the status of fourth largest worldwide earner of 2020.

How this translates to American audiences is a bit of a mystery. It opens opposite Mortal Kombat, which should manage to top the charts and eat into Slayer‘s target demographic. There’s certainly a chance that this over performs considering the massive haul overseas.

I think double digits is certainly achievable and it should debut at #2 behind Kombat.

Demon Slayer opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million

For my Mortal Kombat prediction, click here:

Mortal Kombat Box Office Prediction