Tag: McFarland USA

Box Office Predictions: February 27-March 1

Two new pictures look to open in first and second this weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s con artist tale Focus and horror flick The Lazarus Effect with Olivia Wilde debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/21/focus-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/21/the-lazarus-effect-box-office-prediction/

I expect the Focus opening to not nearly be in line with your typical Will Smith action or science fiction extravaganza, but it should be enough to propel it to #1. Lazarus should see just over double digits, which I’ll predict will allow it the runner-up position.

As for holdovers, Fifty Shades of Grey experienced a massive drop-off in its sophomore weekend (more on that below). Its second to third weekend fall shouldn’t be quite as drastic, though I expect it’ll continue to lose more than half its audience. Kingsman: The Secret Service and SpongeBob should both experience percentage declines in the mid 40s and round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the coming weekend:

1. Focus

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. The Lazarus Effect

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

3. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (February 20-22)

Everyone expected Fifty Shades of Grey to experience a precipitous decline in weekend #2, but 74% is a lot. The picture stayed #1, however, with $22.2 million – below my estimate of $29.2M. The erotic tale has grossed $129.1M so far.

Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $18.3 million in its second weekend and I predicted… $18.3M! Gold star! The comic book adaptation has made $67M and looks to top the century club.

SpongeBob was third in its third frame with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.8M projection and its total stands at $126.2M.

Of the three newbies over the weekend, the Kevin Costner sports drama fared the best, as I predicted. It made $11 million, just outshining my $9.7M prediction. With a reported budget of only $17M, this was a solid result.

Teen comedy The DUFF, another low budget offering at just $12 million, also did commendable business with $10.8 million, above my $7.9M estimate.

Oscar nominee American Sniper earned $10 million (right under my $11.1M projection) and the gargantuan total for it is at $320M.

Finally, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 tanked with a tepid $5.9 million, not matching my $8.3M prediction. While the original is a cult hit, audiences clearly weren’t clamoring for a follow-up and highly negative reviews didn’t assist.

That’s all for now, folks!

Box Office Predictions: February 20-22

Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/hot-tub-time-machine-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/mcfarland-usa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/the-duff-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.

Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.

And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. McFarland, USA

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The DUFF

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 13-15)

Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.

Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.

Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.

American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.

That’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

http://youtu.be/dQDilmi8RwI

 

 

McFarland, USA Box Office Prediction

He’s already made three films about baseball plus football, golf, and bicycle racing pics. Apparently it’s time for cross country track on the silver screen for Kevin Costner as McFarland, USA debuts in theaters Friday.

The Disney produced drama tells the true story of a Latino high school track team with Costner as the coach. Maria Bello costars. It’s a bit of a period piece as it is set in the 1980s when Mr. Costner first started making these types of flicks. Of course, the 80s and 90s were when the star could help successfully open a movie and that time has passed.

I could definitely see this debuting right around with what another Disney sports pic did last summer, Millin Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm which earned a middling $10.5 million. This should hover right around the double digit mark. Not anything special at all, but also not so bad considering its meager reported $17 million budget.

McFarland, USA opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my Hot Tub Time Machine 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/hot-tub-time-machine-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The DUFF, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/the-duff-box-office-prediction/