There was a time when the name of director M. Night Shyamalan pretty much meant guaranteed box office success, especially in the horror genre. That time was over a decade ago, however, and this Friday’s The Visit will be a true test as to whether his name can still fill seats. It might be somewhat tough.
The good news for distributor Universal Pictures is the budget is reportedly a tiny $5 million and profitability is virtually assured. The creepy tale centers on two kids visiting their possibly crazy grandparents. We’re a ways away from A listers like Bruce Willis, Mel Gibson, Mark Wahlberg, and Will Smith headlining Shyamalan’s offering. The Visit features an unknown cast and is banking solely on bringing in a horror crowd and hoping Night’s name assists.
It was a long time ago that Signs debuted to $60 million and The Village made $50 million out of the gate. The director’s lowest opening was in 2006 with the reviled Lady in the Water, which made $18 million. The Visit could compete with that number and it certainly has the capacity to over perform. Ultimately, though, I see this marking the director’s worst opening for a still rather stellar start considering the mini budget and probably coming in second to competitor The Perfect Guy.
Like many comedy sequels before it, Ted 2 often has a troubling time justifying its own existence. Seth MacFarlane’s follow-up to his wildly successful 2012 hit finds the director a bit more unshackled with choreographed musical numbers and more abundant political humor. This doesn’t achieve the effect of making this more funny. To go down a cliched road, Ted 2 is bearable but struggles a bit to come to life.
When we open, Ted is tying the knot with girlfriend Tami-Lynn (Jessica Barth) and things are going smoothly in the talking bear’s world. Not so much for Johnny (Mark Wahlberg), who’s down on his luck after divorcing Lori (Mila Kunis, who doesn’t appear). Within a year, Ted and Tami-Lynn are fighting and they figure a solution to their problems may be a baby. Since Ted is anatomically challenged in that area, adoption comes into play and after Tom Brady humorously rejects the notion of being a sperm donor, it’s left to Ted’s longtime friend. It all leads down a dangerous road where Ted is eventually deemed not to be a person by the state and this is where our main characters enlist new lawyer and pothead Sam (Amanda Seyfried) to help.
Ted 2 clumsily draws comparisons of Ted’s plight to that of gays and African Americans. We expect nothing less from MacFarlane than seriously un-PC comedy, yet these jokes fall flat more frequently than they hit. In fact, nearly everything here just simply cannot match the freshness of the original. Returning characters like the Ted obsessed Donny (Giovanni Ribisi) and Sam Jones (Flash Gordon if you recall) aren’t granted moments as uproarious as we’ve seen before. Whereas the relationship of Johnny and Lori was a strength in Ted, the forced romance between Johnny and Sam adds little.
Even with all those negatives, like a middling Family Guy episode, there are genuine laughs to be had. Many are throwaway lines and sight gags and MacFarlane and his cowriters Alec Sulkin and Wellesley Wild are too talented not to have some of the material succeed. Certain celeb cameos work more than others – Liam Neeson’s is a trip. There’s also smile inducing references to 80s genre classics of the past including The Breakfast Club and Planes, Trains and Automobiles. And Morgan Freeman (as a top civil rights lawyer) is put to decent use mainly due to his voice, as Ted aptly points out when they meet.
As I began though, the sequels that populate film comedy usually can’t match what made its predecessor special. That holds true here and its occasionally preachy overtones don’t help. Ted 2 made this big admirer of the original sometimes happy, but not enough to warrant its second life on the screen.
One year following the critical and commercial disappointment of A Million Ways to Die in the West, Seth MacFarlane should find himself back in the good graces of audiences with Ted 2, out Friday. The sequel to the 2012 mega hit brings back Mark Wahlberg and most importantly, that foul mouthed talking teddy bear. Mila Kunis is out and Amanda Seyfried is in with Morgan Freeman and Liam Neeson among other new cast members.
Three summers ago, Ted debuted to a terrific $54.4 million on its way to a $218 million domestic take. The real question is whether or not part two exceeds the gross of the original out of the gate. This is certainly possible and it has the potential to reach $6o million or more next weekend. Yet I’m somewhat skeptical. There is a chance that the Ted novelty may have waned slightly and that may cause a debut slightly under its predecessor’s hot start. Critics were kind to the first and we’ve yet to see if that continues here. Its numbers might improve if word of mouth approaches that of the 2012 blockbuster, but that seems unlikely.
I’ll predict Ted 2 falls just shy of the $54 million achieved when Ted became the sleeper hit of summer 2012.
Vinnie, E, Johnny Drama, Turtle and Ari go from the small screen to the big one as Entourage debuts in theaters this Wednesday. Based upon the HBO series that ran from 2004 to 2011, the studio is hoping to recapture the magic that allowed Sex and the City to become a huge silver screen blockbuster.
Kevin Connolly, Adrian Grenier, Kevin Dillon, Jeremy Piven and Jerry Ferrara reprise their aforementioned roles with Billy Bob Thornton and a host of celebrity cameos in the mix. They include Liam Neeson, Tom Brady and the show and picture’s executive producer Mark Wahlberg. Entourage may suffer from hurdles preventing it from becoming a success at the multiplex. First, while the show was acclaimed – many critics and viewers felt it had worn out its welcome and lost quality by the culmination of its pay cable run. Second, there’s another comedy in town premiering as Melissa McCarthy’s Spy looks to have a solid start. Its most hardcore fans should push it to a mid to high teens five day haul and it’ll likely fade soon afterwards.
Entourage opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
We move forward into the Top Ten with numbers 10-6 before my final installment tomorrow revealing the top five.
Let’s get to it!
10. Ted 2
Release Date: June 26
Seth MacFarlane’s Ted was the comedic hit of summer 2012 with its foul talking teddy bear. Mark Wahlberg is back, though Mila Kunis is out with Amanda Seyfried in. Comedy sequels are a risky proposition, but let’s hope MacFarlane can recapture the magic he made three years ago (and couldn’t duplicate with last summer’s mediocre A Million Ways to Die in the West).
9. Straight Outta Compton
Release Date: August 14
F. Gary Gray, the man responsible for several music videos featuring the film’s subjects as well as Friday and The Italian Job, directs the musical bio of NWA – the highly influential gangsta rap group that included Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, and Eazy-E. Dre and Cube serve as producers.
8. Trainwreck
Release Date: July 17
Judd Apatow had a one two punch of comedy classics with 2005’s The 40 Year Old Virgin and 2007’s Knocked Up. His follow-ups, Funny People and This is 40, were just OK. Trainwreck is said to be a return to form based on word of mouth, with comedian Amy Schumer primed for a breakout starring role. Bill Hader and Lebron James (!) co-star.
7. Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17
The last time Marvel Studios had a feature thought to be outside the box and risky, it was last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy and it turned out to be the season’s biggest hit. This studio knows what they’re doing and here we have Paul Rudd playing the title character with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly in supporting roles.
6. Aloha
Release Date: May 29
For the past decade, Cameron Crowe’s filmography has been unimpressive with Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Let us not forget, though, that this is the man that brought us Say Anything, Jerry Maguire, and Almost Famous. Crowe’s latest is a romantic comedy with a truly impressive cast – Bradley Cooper (hot off American Sniper), Emma Stone, Bill Murray, Rachel McAdams, Alec Baldwin, and Danny McBride.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Top five coming at you tomorrow…
Paramount Pictures goes for a little Christmas counter programming with the crime drama The Gambler, a remake of a 1974 James Caan flick. Rupert Wyatt (who did Rise of the Planet of the Apes) directs with Mark Wahlberg headlining. John Goodman, Jessica Lange, and Brie Larson costar. Reviews have been mostly positive with a current ranking of 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The majority of holiday pictures out there are not catering directly to an adult audience (Unbroken is a notable exception) and it could allow The Gambler to post a decent debut. Wahlberg is hit or miss at the box office, however and I’m not sure the marketing campaign has been effective enough to bring older moviegoers out in droves.
It may be a wager that doesn’t quite work for the studio. I believe The Gambler could get somewhat lost in the shuffle among the higher profile releases. It could struggle to reach $15 million over the four day extended holiday frame and I’ll estimate that it will not.
The Gambler opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Today we roll into part 4 of my personal top 90 hip hop singles of the 1990s. If you missed the first three parts covering numbers 90-61, you can check them out here:
The second single off Dre’s brilliant Chronic album also featured a very memorable video dissing former NWA partner Eazy-E.
59. “Money, Power, Respect” by The Lox featuring DMX and Lil Kim (1998)
This Bad Boy label group had their signature tune with this banger with assists from DMX and Lil Kim.
58. “Gimme Some More” by Busta Rhymes (1998)
Mr. Rhymes can usually be counted on for great beats (this one samples the Psycho theme) and imaginative videos. This one has both and then some.
57. “Passin’ Me By” by The Pharcyde (1993)
This rap foursome hit #1 on the charts with this groove.
56. “Warning” by The Notorious B.I.G. (1994)
One of Biggie’s most hard hitting and creative tracks from his debut Ready to Die album.
55. “1st of tha Month” by Bone Thugs n Harmony (1995)
The Cleveland group had one of their giant singles with this unforgettable ode to welfare checks.
54. “Natural Born Killaz” by Dr. Dre and Ice Cube (1994)
Dre and Cube reunited for the first time since NWA for this fantastic song from the Murder Was the Case soundtrack.
53. “Ditty” by Paperboy (1993)
It may have been his only big hit, but Paperboy delivered a wonderful one with this catchy tune… or ditty, if you will.
52. “Good Vibrations” by Marky Mark and the Funky Bunch (1991)
The second best song with the name “Good Vibrations”, it’s still awesome and it’s definitely Marky’s finest hour at the mic. He would go onto a storied movie career. The Funky Bunch did not.
51. “Cell Therapy” by Goodie Mob (1995)
This Atlanta based group (which includes Cee-Lo) created a masterpiece here. This is Mob’s only single that cracked the top 40.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! We’ll get into the top 50 tomorrow…
This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.
Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.
Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.
The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.
Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.
Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million
Rocky over Taxi Driver. Ordinary People over Raging Bull. Dances with Wolves over GoodFellas. These are all examples where, in hindsight, pictures directed by Martin Scorsese and the auteur himself probably should have received Oscars wins and not just nominations. In 2002, Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was seen as a Best Picture frontrunner until Chicago stole its thunder. The same held true two years later with The Aviator until Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby had a late surge and took the prize. By 2006, Scorsese was undoubtedly the most acclaimed director whose films had never won the gold statue. And neither had he.
This would finally come to an end with The Departed, his crime thriller that won Best Picture and this kicks off my 2006 Oscar History.
The other four nominees were Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Babel, Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Feris’s Little Miss Sunshine, and Stephen Frears’s The Queen. The voters got it right. The Departed was the Best Picture of the year.
As for other pictures I would’ve considered: Alfonso Cuaron’s terrific Children of Men, Guillermo del Toro’s visual feast Pan’s Labyrinth, the Ryan Gosling drama Half Nelson, and Todd Field’s Little Children. And for an outside the box pic – why not Casino Royale, which brought the Bond franchise back in grand fashion and ranks as my 2nd all-time 007 pic after From Russia with Love?
Scorsese, as mentioned before, would win Director over Inarritu, Eastwood, Frears, and Paul Greengrass for United 93. Once again – my list would’ve found room for Cuaron and del Toro.
In the Best Actor race, Forest Whitaker expectedly won for his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond (many thought he’d get nominated instead for Departed), Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole for Venus (his final nomination), and Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness.
Once again, my ballot might’ve listed Daniel Craig for his electric take on James Bond. Others to consider: Clive Owen (Children of Men), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking), or Matt Damon’s work in The Departed.
No surprise in the Best Actress race as Helen Mirren’s work as Queen Elizabeth II was honored in The Queen over Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), and Kate Winslet (Little Children).
That’s a strong Actress category, but I would’ve also had Natalie Portman’s fine performance in V for Vendetta included.
The only true surprise at the 2006 Oscars occurred in the Supporting Actor category where Eddie Murphy’s acclaimed work in Dreamgirls was expected to win. Instead the Academy honored Alan Arkin’s performance in Little Miss Sunshine. Other nominees: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).
Instead of Wahlberg, many believed it would be Jack Nicholson for Departed that received the nomination. I was cool with it – considering Nicholson had already won three times before and this marked Wahlberg’s first nod. Other names I would have possibly included: Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Stanley Tucci (The Devil Wears Prada), Michael Sheen (The Queen), and for his brilliant comedic work – John C. Reilly in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.
Jennifer Hudson had the distinction of being the first “American Idol” contestant turned Oscar winner with her lauded role in Dreamgirls – winning out over Babel actresses Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, young Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine, and Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal.
My list would have absolutely included Shareeka Epps with her fabulous work in Half Nelson and probably Vera Farmiga in The Departed.
And that’s your 2006 Oscar history! I’ll be back soon with 2007 where another beloved director (s) would take home their first Oscar gold.
The second weekend of 2014 brings three new wide release offerings for your consideration – the war drama Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg, Renny Harlin’s The Legend of Hercules, and Spike Jonze’s critically acclaimed Her with Joaquin Phoenix. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Lone Survivor should fairly easily open at #1. The Legend of Hercules could completely bomb, but I’m giving it enough credit to reach double digits at the three spot. Her likely won’t reach double digits.
Last weekend’s champ Frozen should slip to second while I am predicting holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will battle Her for slots 4-6.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend box office:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. The Legend of Hercules
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
6. Her
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Blogger’s note: For the past several months, I’ve been doing box office results analysis every Sunday. Starting next week, I will be combining the results from the previous weekend with this here weekly predictions post for the next weekend which comes every Monday. The main reason: I’m usually busy Sunday doing my predictions posts for the next week’s newcomers, which will continue without interruption. Secondly, the final box office numbers come in Monday so I can more accurately update how I performed. Until next time, my friends!
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