Tag: Jason Bourne

Oscar Predictions – Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Arriving five years after Mission: Impossible – Fallout and one year following the biggest hit of his career, Tom Cruise returns as IMF agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One on July 12th. The seventh feature in the franchise that began in the summer of 1996 looks to be one of this season’s largest domestic and worldwide earners.

The review embargo ended yesterday and the current results are a sizzling 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s currently the highest of the group though the last three entries have all topped 90% – 2011’s Ghost Protocol (93%), 2015’s Rogue Nation (94%), and Fallout at 97%. While Reckoning can boast the best percentage for now, numerous critics are putting it in the middle as far as best of for the series. In other words, don’t expect this to nab a Best Picture nomination like Cruise’s phenomenon Top Gun: Maverick did last year.

While the Daniel Craig James Bond pics and the Jason Bourne movies can boast nods from the Academy, the six previous M:I installments have netted a surprising total of zero mentions. It’s too bad a stunt category doesn’t exist, but it’s also been ignored in Sound and Visual Effects.

Sound seems to be the strongest chance though I wouldn’t count on it. Oppenheimer and certainly Dune: Part Two likely have reserved spots and if Fallout couldn’t make that cut, it might be 0 for 7 for this franchise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: July 22

In addition to the Bourne franchise, director Paul Greengrass is best known for making thrillers based on well-known events. This includes Bloody Sunday, United 93 (for which he received a Best Director nomination), and Captain Phillips (which nabbed a Best Picture nod). His latest is July 22 and it focuses on the 2011 Norwegian terrorist attacks.

The film has debuted at the Venice Film Festival and reviews out today are solid. However, I’m not sure the critical reaction is strong enough for Greengrass or his picture to receive Academy acknowledgment. I’m also not seeing any technical nominations at this juncture. It also may not help that the production is scheduled to debut on Netflix and the voters still may not be overly enthusiastic about recognizing the subscription service.

Bottom line: Barring a greater amount of festival love, don’t expect this to achieve the level of attention that previous Greengrass movies United 93 and Captain Phillips got.

July 22 is out on Netflix on October 10. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Great Wall Box Office Prediction

Just a few months after reviving his Jason Bourne character, Matt Damon is back in theaters battling monsters in China in The Great Wall, out next weekend. This is the most expensive film shot entirely in that country and it was released overseas at the end of 2016, grossing over $200 million thus far. The historical action fantasy comes from acclaimed director Zhang Yimou, who’s responsible for foreign hits such as Raise the Red Lantern, Hero, and House of Flying Daggers. Costars include Jing Tian, Pedro Pascal, Andy Lau, and Willem Dafoe.

How will the pic, which seems made primarily to make its bulk of cash in Asia, play stateside? It could face some hurdles. Reviews haven’t been too strong and it stands at 44% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

As I see it, The Great Wall will be lucky to break $100 million domestically and it probably will fall short. Opening over the long Presidents Day weekend, I think it should manage a mid to high 20s debut with possibly a fairly steep decline the following weekend.

The Great Wall opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million

For my Fist Fight prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/fist-fight-box-office-prediction/

For my A Cure for Wellness prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/a-cure-for-wellness-box-office-prediction/

2016 SAG Awards Predictions

The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: La La Land, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.

We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture 

Nominees: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Moonlight

Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if La La doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck

Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman

Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion)

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali

Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for Nocturnal Animals, isn’t present here.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis

Analysis: Another exact match with Oscar and I expect the same result – a win for Ms. Davis. Anything else would be a surprise.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange, Hacksaw Ridge, Jason Bourne, Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.

And there you have it! Happy watching tonight…

The Accountant Movie Review

Gavin O’Connor’s The Accountant is, on one hand, an often routine Jason Bourne style thriller with lots of decent fights. It even stars Mr. Bourne’s buddy Ben Affleck. On the other hand, Bill Dubuque’s screenplay contains some plot elements that left me shocked it was green lit. I don’t necessarily mean that in a negative way. You just don’t see action flicks where the central character is an autistic math whiz who mows down bad guys everyday. Said script also comes with a generous heaping of plot holes and meandering subplots.

Affleck is Chris Wolff, suburban number cruncher by day who moonlights for criminal empires catching embezzlers for his real work. He gets paid in cash at times, but also with cool stuff like original Action Comics (appropriate for the newest Caped Crusader) and Picasso paintings. When Chris takes a seemingly legit job auditing a robotics company, he uncovers some questionable practices. Anna Kendrick is one of the business’s employees assisting him.

The myth of Chris and his exploits have caught the attention of a Treasury agent (J.K. Simmons) looking to nab him. He’s about to retire because of course he is, so he blackmails a fellow agent with a shady past (Cynthia Addai-Robinson) to join his mission. Jon Bernthal is a hit man whose motivations you’ll spot from a mile away, which by the way is about the distance where Chris can hit any target.

We’re also given flashback sequences detailing the title character’s childhood. It begins in 1989 as Chris’s parents are struggling to deal with his diagnosis. Mom leaves. Dad’s solution is to toughen him up, along with their other son. His military background helps turn the boys into badasses.

Does this all sound just slightly weird? Oh it is. The Accountant is loaded with a lot of plot and much of it ends up making little sense. It’s also written with an earnestness and directed with a soberness more than it warrants. This could have worked (maybe – just maybe) if the creative forces and actors just went all in on its B movie goofy as hell material.

Our lead actor plays this about as stone-faced and humorless as he can muster. No performances really stand out among the supporting players, though John Lithgow is always a welcome sight as he plays a corporate meanie. The talented Kendrick is thoroughly wasted.

I was more bemused by The Accountant than entertained by it. I’ll give it a small amount of credit for attempting to inject something different into an otherwise ordinary genre pic. Still, like The Joker said in a franchise Affleck is now part of: Why So Serious?? You may ask that at times along with “Are You Serious?”

** (out of four)

 

Box Office Predictions: September 2-5

The 2016 fall movie kicks off in muted fashion (per usual) with two new entries debuting: sci-fi thriller Morgan and period piece romantic drama The Light Between Oceans. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/morgan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/the-light-between-oceans-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting either to make much of a splash and I’m predicting Light will just outshine Morgan for the #3 spot. Labor Day weekend has shown in past years that holdovers often don’t lose much of their audience from the previous weekend. In fact, in many cases, its percentage can increase a bit.

This will probably not hold true for current #1 Don’t Breathe, which had a smashing weekend out of the gate (more on that below). Like most horror titles. it should lose a fairly hefty percentage of its opening weekend crowd. Yet it’s likely to remain #1, unless one of the newbies surpasses expectations or Suicide Squad holds even better than forecast. Kubo and the Two Strings likely will round out the top five, though Pete’s Dragon may challenge it for that spot.

As for my blog poll on the two newcomers – 45% believe my Morgan estimate is Just About Right with 39% saying it’s Too High and 16% saying Too Low. With The Light Between Oceans, 40% think it’s Too High, 33% Just About Right, and 27% Too Low.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the holiday weekend that includes Friday to Sunday and Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $13 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.9 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Light Between Oceans

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Morgan

Predicted Gross: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $8 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 26-28)

Low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe continued a solid season for the genre with a fantastic $26.4 million debut (over double my meager $12.4M projection). The critically heralded project, with a reported budget of only $9.9 million, opened beyond even the rosiest of expectations, ousting Suicide Squad from its three-week reign at #1.

Squad dropped to second with $12.2 million (a bit ahead of my $10.6M estimate) for a four-week tally of $283M.

Animated Kubo and the Two Strings actually rose a spot to #3 with $7.8 million in its sophomore frame (in line with $7.5M prediction) for a ten day gross of $24M. A much different animated tale, Sausage Party, was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.6M) for a $79M tally.

Opening softly in fifth was the Jason Statham sequel Mechanic: Resurrection with $7.4 million (a bit under my $8.5M forecast).

Following closely behind in sixth was Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, also with $7.4 million (I said $6.6M) for a $54M haul.

War Dogs slipped from third to seventh in its second weekend with $7 million (I said $7.4M) for a $27M overall gross.

Bad Moms continued its impressive run in eight place with $5.5 million (I said $5.4M) for a $95M total. Jason Bourne was ninth with $5.1 million ($4.6M prediction here) for a gross of $149M. Ben-Hur continued its disastrous run in 10th with $4.5 million (a bit below my $5.2M estimate) for a total of only $19M.

There were a pair of limited releases – one that opened OK and the other not so much. Southside with You, dramatizing the first date of first couple Barack and Michelle Obama, managed $2.8 million on 813 screens for 14th place (it’ll expand a bit wider this weekend). Boxing drama Hands of Stone stumbled with just $1.7 million (below my $3.2M projection) on 810 screens for 16th place.

And finally – on this sad day for movie fans – a little of the incomparable Mr. Gene Wilder from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. May he rest in peace.

Box Office Predictions: August 19-21

As the summer movie season beings to close out, three new titles open Friday and they could all experience similar grosses. They are the big-budget Ben-Hur remake, animated fantasy Kubo and the Two Strings, and Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/ben-hur-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/war-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/kubo-and-the-two-strings-box-office-prediction/

The difference in predictions between the trio of newcomers is a scant $3.6 million. I have Kubo edging out the others with Ben-Hur closely behind and War Dogs a bit further down.

As for where my loyal blog readers see my predictions: 53% currently feel my Kubo estimate is Just About Right with 30% saying Too High and 17% saying Too Low. 43% say Just About Right on Ben-Hur with 30% saying Too High and 27% saying Too Low. Those numbers for Hur show the unpredictability as to what it might accomplish or not accomplish. As for War Dogs, a whopping 61% think I’m Too Low with 39% saying Just About Right. A whole ZERO percent think I’m Too High on it.

Suicide Squad experienced a hefty decline in its sophomore frame. It shouldn’t be quite as big in its third weekend, but I still estimate it losing in the mid-50s. That should still keep at #1, unless one of the newcomers tops my forecast (which is certainly possible).

The story of this past weekend was the huge opening of Sausage Party (more on that below). I have it losing just over half its audience in weekend #2. Then there’s Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, which experienced a disappointing debut. Its “A” Cinemascore grade could mean a fairly soft decline, unless Kubo takes a nice portion of its family audience away (also possible). If it drops 40% or more, that would put Pete and his green friend in sixth place.

Bottom line: this is one unpredictable weekend where the grosses could be tightly bunched together. Here’s my top 6 predictions on how I believe it will play out:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Ben-Hur

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

5. War Dogs

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

6. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (August 12-14)

As expected, Suicide Squad dropped precipitously in its second weekend but managed to stay atop the box office rather easily with $43.5 million (a touch below my $45.7M prediction) for a total of $222 million. Its 67% dip isn’t quite as pronounced as Batman v Superman‘s 69%, but consider that the Caped Crusader/Man of Steel battle earned $33M more out of the gate than Harley Quinn and company.

The real fiesta was happening over at Columbia Pictures as Seth Rogen’s critically acclaimed raunchy animated Sausage Party produced a gross of $34.2 million. This was on the absolute highest end of expectations (as I totally underestimated it with $19.4M). Making its $30 million budget back in one weekend, expect a sequel to this and some other R rated ‘toons heading your way in the future.

Pete’s Dragon did not bring (or breathe, if you will) the kind of fire normally reserved for Disney live-action remakes. It opened in third with a muted $21.5 million (under my $29.8M estimate), despite solid reviews and its studio pedigree. Family audiences have had plenty to see this summer and the fact that this property was based on one of Disney’s lesser known properties clearly hurt.

Jason Bourne held nicely in weekend 3 with $13.8 million (ahead of my $11.4M forecast) for a total of $127M. Holding even better was Bad Moms in its third frame with $11.3 million (above my $9.3M prognosis) for a very good $71M.

Finally, Meryl Streep’s Florence Foster Jenkins debuted in 8th place with a quiet $6.6 million (I went a bit higher with $8.2M). Interestingly, that’s the exact same figure that Streep’s Ricki and the Flash opened with a year ago.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 12-14

Three new pics enter the marketplace in the second weekend of August as Disney’s live-action remake Pete’s Dragon, Seth Rogen’s raunchy animated Sausage Party, and Meryl Streep biopic Florence Foster Jenkins debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/petes-dragon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/sausage-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/florence-foster-jenkins-box-office-prediction/

None, in my view, will earn enough to dethrone Suicide Squad from a second weekend atop the charts. If Pete’s Dragon over performs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could place first, but my sub $30M forecast makes that scenario unlikely to me. The big question is how far will Squad fall in its sophomore frame after a record premiere (more on that below). I don’t believe it’ll dip quite as far as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year (69%), though it could be close and in the mid 60s.

As for Sausage Party, I look for it to almost reach $20M for a third place showing (solid considering its reported $30M budget). Truth be told, this Party is a bit of a wild card. I could see it doing $25M or $15M so I pretty much split the difference.

I’ll predict Mila Kunis and company have the smallest drop this weekend and that could put Bad Moms in a race with Jason Bourne (both in their third weekends) for the #4 position (though I’ll give Mr. Damon the edge by a couple million). As for Bad Singer Florence Foster Jenkins, its relatively low 1500 screen count has me putting it in sixth.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $45.7 million

2. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

As far as where my readers currently think I am with predictions on the newcomers:

A hefty 69% think I’m Too Low on Pete’s Dragon, 24% think Just About Right, and just 7% Too High

56% think I’m Too Low on Sausage Party, 23% Too High, 21% Just About Right

Florence Foster Jenkins: 54% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Box Office Results (August 5-7)

Suicide Squad easily broke the August opening weekend record (by nearly $40 million) as it earned $133.6 million. The DC comics adaptation was subject to mostly negative reviews. Mine was more mixed and you can read it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/05/suicide-squad-movie-review/

Squad did not quite match my goal of $144.3M that I had it at. The biggest worry from Warner Bros could be how far it drops in weekend 2, as discussed above. Its large dip from Friday to Saturday could be a sign of things to come.

Jason Bourne fell to second in weekend #2, tumbling further than I anticipated with a gross of $22.4 million compared to my $27.1M forecast. The fifth entry in the franchise has earned $103M so far.

Bad Moms experienced a nice hold for third at $14 million (above my $12.1M projection) for a two-week total of $50M.

The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $11.5 million (slightly above my $10.6M estimate) for a whopping total of $319M.

Star Trek Beyond rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.8M) for a tally of $127M.

Finally, the level of anticipation for a horribly reviewed Kevin Spacey cat reincarnation movie was under my guess. Nine Lives debuted in sixth with $6.2 million and under my generous $9.8M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 5-7

The first weekend of August at theaters brings us two new films. One is among the most eagerly anticipated movies of the summer. The other finds Kevin Spacey reincarnated into the body of a cat.

They are Suicide Squad, the DC Comics gathering of super villains (including Will Smith, Margot Robbie, and Jared Leto as The Joker) that looks to be a box office juggernaut and Nine Lives, the aforementioned Spacey/kitty cat pic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/26/suicide-squad-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/26/nine-lives-box-office-prediction/

Warner Bros. has to be feeling pretty confident with their Squad goals. My prediction for it puts it at the 15th highest domestic opening of all time and it has a legit chance at ruling the box office charts for the entire month of August.

As for Nine Lives, I’m predicting it falls just under double digits for a sixth place showing. As for holdovers, Jason Bourne will likely lose more than half its audience in weekend #2 while the drop for Bad Moms may not be quite as pronounced. Moms may stay put at third with Star Trek Beyond slipping to fourth and The Secret Life of Pets rounding out the top five (though those two could swap spots).

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $144.3 million

2. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $27.1 million

3. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Nine Lives

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

**At press time, here are the results for my poll on the newbies:

Suicide Squad

52% believe my prediction is “Just About Right”

37% believe my prediction is “Too High”

11% believe my prediction is “Too Low”

Nine Lives

43% believe my prediction is “Just About Right”

37% believe my prediction is “Too High”

20% believe my prediction is “Too Low”

Box Office Results (July 29-31)

Matt Damon’s return as Jason Bourne brought audiences in to the tune of $59.2 million – a solid opening that didn’t match my estimate of $67.6M. While the star’s last turn as the title hero in 2007 performed better with $69M out of the gate, this is still a hefty enough debut to warrant further franchise entries.

Star Trek Beyond fell precipitously in its sophomore frame with $24.7 million for second, under my $28.5M prediction for a two-week take of $106M. The third Trek pic in this particular franchise will easily be the lowest grosser thus far and puts into question its viability going forward (and… beyond).

Bad Moms had a good start in third with $23.8 million, a bit below my $26M projection. As mentioned above, it may not fall too hard next weekend to remain in third.

The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $18.9 million (above my $16.4M forecast) for a $296M total. A less successful animated feature – Ice Age: Collision Course – was fifth in weekend 2 with $10.9 million (I said $10.1M) for an overall gross of $42 million. Sleeper horror hit Lights Out was sixth, earning $10.8 million in its second weekend (I said $10.6M). It has also made $42 million so far. Ghostbusters was seventh in its third weekend with $10.1 million (a touch under my $11.2M projection) for a $106M total.

YA tech thriller Nerve performed fairly well in an 8th place debut with $9.4 million over the traditional weekend and $15.4 million since its Wednesday roll out – slightly below my respective estimates of $10.8M and $16.3M.

Rounding out the top ten: Finding Dory in ninth with $4.3 million (I said $4.5M) for a $469M haul and The Legend of Tarzan in tenth with $2.4 million (I was over with $3.6M) for a $121M total.

Outside the top ten, Woody Allen’s Cafe Society expanded nationwide and placed 12th with $2.3 million. I said $2.3M! So we’ll end on that high note!

That’s all for now – until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 29-31

**Blogger’s Note: Mid-week numbers for NERVE has significantly upgraded my estimate to $10.8M for Friday to Sunday and $16.3M for Wednesday to Sunday. These changes are reflected in the breakdown for the top 10 below. – TT

***Blogger’s note 2 (07/28/16) Cafe Society opening on less screens that I anticipated. My $3.8M Estimate now revised down to $2.3M, outside of top ten.

The final weekend of July comes at us with three new debuts: Matt Damon’s return as Jason Bourne, raunchy comedy Bad Moms, and techno thriller Nerve. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/jason-bourne-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/bad-moms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/nerve-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Mr. Bourne should have no trouble ruling the charts and I have the fifth franchise entry (and first with Damon in nearly a decade) falling just short of the series high debut of $69 million for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum. 

It’s after that where things get a little more interesting. The battle for second place could be a close one as I have Bad Moms posting a very solid debut that may put it in close proximity to the second weekend of current champ Star Trek Beyond. 

As for the rest of the top five, The Secret Life of Pets should easily hold the fourth spot while a three-way battle for #5 should be fought between Ghostbusters, Lights Out, and Ice Age: Collision Course (all of which posted similar grosses this past weekend). I’m estimating Ghostbusters will have the smallest decline of the trio and manage to stay put at the five spot.

Then there’s Nerve, which opens Wednesday. I’m not expecting much out of it – so much so that I’m placing it ninth after Finding Dory in 8th.

AND we have another title that count enter the top ten this weekend as Woody Allen’s Cafe Society expands nationwide. It’s been performing well in limited release and could have a decent roll out elsewhere. There’s no theater count yet, which makes this estimate a bit tricky – but if it opens on around 900 screens (par for the course for Woody pics), I’ll put it at $3.8 million. That would be good for 10th place just ahead of The Legend of Tarzan. 

So we shall expand my typical top 5 predictions and go with a top 10 for this weekend:

  1. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $67.6 million

2. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $26 million

4. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

6. Nerve

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. Lights Out

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

8. Ice Age: Collision Course

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

10. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (July 22-24)

As expected, Star Trek Beyond easily topped the box office with $59.2 million, reaching beyond my $53.4M prediction. Both its predecessors in the current iteration of the franchise made over $70M for their starts, but this is still a respectable showing and should be enough to see the series chugging along.

The Secret Life of Pets slipped to second after two weeks on top with $29.6 million, above my $24.9M projection. The smash hit animated feature has amassed $260M so far and surprised all by accomplishing more in weekend 3 than Ice Age: Collision Course in weekend 1 (more on that below).

Perhaps the brightest spot of the weekend belonged to third place Lights Out, the critically acclaimed micro budgeted horror flick which earned $21.6 million. That’s a quadrupling of its $5 million price tag and a doubling of my meager $10.2 million projection. Good reviews and James Wan’s participation clearly helped.

The aforementioned Ice Age: Collision Course proved to be a franchise on thin ice as family audiences mostly rejected it. It grossed $21.3 million for fourth place (below my $28.3M estimate) for an embarrassing franchise low by a lot – the previous low was the 2002 original’s $46.3M. Ouch.

Ghostbusters rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $21 million (just above my $19.8M forecast) for an $86 million total.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…