Box Office Predictions: August 12-14

Three new pics enter the marketplace in the second weekend of August as Disney’s live-action remake Pete’s Dragon, Seth Rogen’s raunchy animated Sausage Party, and Meryl Streep biopic Florence Foster Jenkins debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/petes-dragon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/sausage-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/florence-foster-jenkins-box-office-prediction/

None, in my view, will earn enough to dethrone Suicide Squad from a second weekend atop the charts. If Pete’s Dragon over performs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could place first, but my sub $30M forecast makes that scenario unlikely to me. The big question is how far will Squad fall in its sophomore frame after a record premiere (more on that below). I don’t believe it’ll dip quite as far as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year (69%), though it could be close and in the mid 60s.

As for Sausage Party, I look for it to almost reach $20M for a third place showing (solid considering its reported $30M budget). Truth be told, this Party is a bit of a wild card. I could see it doing $25M or $15M so I pretty much split the difference.

I’ll predict Mila Kunis and company have the smallest drop this weekend and that could put Bad Moms in a race with Jason Bourne (both in their third weekends) for the #4 position (though I’ll give Mr. Damon the edge by a couple million). As for Bad Singer Florence Foster Jenkins, its relatively low 1500 screen count has me putting it in sixth.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $45.7 million

2. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

As far as where my readers currently think I am with predictions on the newcomers:

A hefty 69% think I’m Too Low on Pete’s Dragon, 24% think Just About Right, and just 7% Too High

56% think I’m Too Low on Sausage Party, 23% Too High, 21% Just About Right

Florence Foster Jenkins: 54% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Box Office Results (August 5-7)

Suicide Squad easily broke the August opening weekend record (by nearly $40 million) as it earned $133.6 million. The DC comics adaptation was subject to mostly negative reviews. Mine was more mixed and you can read it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/05/suicide-squad-movie-review/

Squad did not quite match my goal of $144.3M that I had it at. The biggest worry from Warner Bros could be how far it drops in weekend 2, as discussed above. Its large dip from Friday to Saturday could be a sign of things to come.

Jason Bourne fell to second in weekend #2, tumbling further than I anticipated with a gross of $22.4 million compared to my $27.1M forecast. The fifth entry in the franchise has earned $103M so far.

Bad Moms experienced a nice hold for third at $14 million (above my $12.1M projection) for a two-week total of $50M.

The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $11.5 million (slightly above my $10.6M estimate) for a whopping total of $319M.

Star Trek Beyond rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.8M) for a tally of $127M.

Finally, the level of anticipation for a horribly reviewed Kevin Spacey cat reincarnation movie was under my guess. Nine Lives debuted in sixth with $6.2 million and under my generous $9.8M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

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2 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: August 12-14

  1. Yo Todd!

    We’re getting closer to my favorite time of the year, the Awards Season! I can’t wait to start seeing some higher quality films, and not just popcorn entertainment.

    Pete’s Dragon – $28.6M
    Sausage Party – $31.1M
    Florence Foster Jenkins – $6.8M

    Good luck this week, buddy!

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