Paramount seeks mega millions at the multiplex as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 arrives December 20th. Based on the hugely successful video games series from Sega, Jeff Fowler is in the director’s chair just as he was for the first two. Ben Schwartz returns to voice the title character with Jim Carrey back as the live-action main antagonist. Other faces behind the mic include Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Idris Elba, and Keanu Reeves while James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Krysten Ritter, Natasha Rothwell, and Shemar Moore are among the in front of camera participants.
Over President’s Day weekend in 2020, the first Sonic took in $70 million over the four-day holiday. It ended up with $149 million as its earnings were disrupted by the pandemic that followed shortly after. In April of 2022, the sequel made $72 million for its start and $190 million stateside.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging suggesting this is the strongest of the trio. Despite direct competition from Mufasa: The Lion King, this should be crowned box office ruler of the pre-Christmas frame. I believe this continues the upward trajectory of the franchise with a high 70s sprint to the number one spot.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening weekend prediction: $77.6 million
For my Mufasa: The Lion King prediction, click here:
To generously take a bowl is half super approach, Jerry Seinfeld’s Unfrosted features stand-up Kyle Dunnigan doing a pretty killer Walter Cronkite impression. His anchor recounts the news with trademark authority followed by darkly amusing off the air grumblings about his love life and alcoholism. Later on, Dunnigan follows up with an impressive Johnny Carson takeoff. There’s lots of comedians and comedic performers in the legendary Mr. Seinfeld’s directorial debut for Netflix. Most of them don’t get the chance to nail their brief screen time like Mr. Dunnigan. A lot of Unfrosted, a mostly fictional account of how Pop-Tarts came to be, consists of stale humor with too many subplots competing against one another.
Even 96 minutes feels long since there’s barely enough witty material for the 22 minutes Jerry used to work in. He plays Bob Cabana, a high level exec at Kellogg’s in 1963. This is one of those screenplays (by Seinfeld and his frequent collaborators Spike Feresten, Andy Robin, and Barry Marder) that constantly reminds us it’s set during that decade in increasingly lame ways. Along with his boss Edsel Kellogg III (Jim Gaffigan) and Melissa McCarthy’s NASA scientist turned cereal conglomerate employee, they are in a race to produce the best toasted pastry treat. In Battle Creek, Michigan, the combat lines are drawn with their rival Post led by socialite Marjorie Post (Amy Schumer). Such lines are not so subtly tied to another race – the space one – of that era.
Rhythms of Unfrosted becomes familiar in short order – a joke or two that work about a given subplot (like the correlation with the nation’s trip to the moon) that get overused swiftly. There’s bursts of inspiration like Dunnigan’s grousing. Bill Burr’s take on JFK is also a delight. Most of the time I wasn’t blown away by what else the overfilled screenplay had to say.
Since this is Seinfeld we’re talking about, there’s lots of funny people popping in for a day or two on the set. Hugh Grant is the very real Thurl Ravenscroft, a true Shakespearean thespian who voiced Tony the Tiger. The Kellogg gang recruits a hodgepodge of kitschy historical figures including fitness guru Jack LaLanne (James Marsden), Sea Monkeys maker and maybe Nazi Harold von Braunhut (Thomas Lennon), and Chef Boy Ardee (Bobby Moynihan) to develop the product. I could go on and on. Mixing all these talents together is bound to produce some amusing highlights and it does on occasion, but not nearly enough. Sometimes the satire totally misses like when it attempts to connect a mascot uprising to January 6th.
A lot of Unfrosted probably sounded better while Seinfeld and crew were discussing it over Zoom. Most of it might produce more guffaws if its Cronkite impersonator were handling the delivery.
You might be familiar with his TV work, but Jerry Seinfeld’s cinematic output is limited to the 2002 doc Comedian and 2007’s animated Bee Movie. He makes his directorial debut and stars in Unfrosted, which loosely tells the story of how Pop-Tarts came into our world. The cast is an impressive mix of comedic talents including Melissa McCarthy, Jim Gaffigan, Hugh Grant, Amy Schumer, and many more that are tagged in this write-up.
Premiering on Netflix this weekend, reviews are finally popping up. The late embargo is explained by the troubling 18% Rotten Tomatoes score. Indicating a rare misfire for the small screen legend, this big screen product origin tale (a popular of genre lately) was never seen as an Oscar player. Yet considering the talent onboard, Golden Globe possibilities in the Musical/Comedy derbies seemed possible. Those appear to be toast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On Sunday, Michael Keaton took part in a humorous bit with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito during the 96th Academy Awards. It was related to the fact that the Twins stars were both Batman villains. In the history of the Oscars, Keaton’s sole nod is for 2014’s Birdman. He stars in his second directorial feature Knox Goes Away, which hits theaters in limited fashion Friday.
Playing a hitman diagnosed with dementia, the thriller premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Costars include James Marsden, Al Pacino (who had his own viral moment at the Oscars three days ago), Marcia Gay Harden, and Suzy Nakamura. The jury’s verdict from Canada months ago and in recent days is split to negative with 50% on RT. It’s safe to assume this won’t mark Keaton’s second nomination in front of the camera or behind it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie arrives in theaters tomorrow and it’s the second animated feature based on the popular Nickelodeon series. Cal Brunker returns to direct with voice cast actors including Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Kim Kardashian, James Marsden, and Kristen Bell.
Initial reviews are encouraging with an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That score may go down, but it’s currently higher than the 80% earned by its 2021 predecessor. However, I don’t really see this contending for Best Animated Feature. The first PAW didn’t and there’s other sequels or reboots that could stand a better shot. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, for example, boasts a 96% RT meter. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget has yet to drop and it could emerge as a hopeful. With Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, and Elemental probably already in and Wish on deck, don’t count on these dogs to make it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount is hoping the kiddos are eager for a second cinematic helping of canine comedy as PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie hits theaters on September 29th. The animated sequel, based on a Canadian TV series that made its way stateside via Nickelodeon, has Cal Brunker returning to direct. The voice cast includes Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian and her children North West and Saint West, James Marsden, Kristin Bell, and Finn Lee-Epp.
PAW Patrol: The Movie arrived in theaters in August of 2021 during COVID challenges. It opened to a so-so $13 million and ended up taking in $40 million domestically. Without the barriers that its predecessor faced, this may end up earning about the same amount out of the gate and maybe a little more. Not mighty, but not a box office dog either.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million
Right before COVID changed the world as we knew it, 2020’s Sonic the Hedgehog hit big at the box office. Based on the Sega video game franchise, it amassed the largest opening yet for its genre with $58 million from Friday to Sunday and $70 million for the four-day President’s Day frame.
Just over two years later, the sequel is out April 8th. Jeff Fowler returns to direct with Ben Schwartz reprising his vocal stylings at the title character. Colleen O’Shaughnessey and Idris Elba also lend their words while the live-action cast includes Jim Carrey, James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Natasha Rothwell, Adam Pally, and Shemar Moore.
Budgeted at a reported $110 million, part 2 will hope to approach the $149 million earned domestically by the original. It should have no trouble opening in first place. With the short amount of time between entries, I believe it should manage a low 60s start.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 opening weekend prediction: $62.5 million
In February 2020, Sonic the Hedgehog (based on the popular Sega video game) was one of the last massive box office success stories before COVID shuttered theaters for months. Come Oscar time for the 93rd Academy Awards, one of the surprising omissions was Sonic being left off the shortlist for Best Visual Effects. After all, many of the tentpole projects for 2020 were pushed to 2021 or beyond (including Dune which won last weekend). Instead there were unexpected nominees such as Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan.
The new franchise will have another bite at the apple in 2022 with Sonic the Hedgehog 2, opening April 8th. Reviews are decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (a bit stronger than the original’s 63%). Yet if part 1 couldn’t manage to break into VE in a weaker year, I wouldn’t anticipate the sequel making the cut this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Boss Baby: Family Business looks to pacify little ones and their parents over the Independence Day weekend. The DreamWorks animated sequel follows up on the March 2017 pic which greatly over performed with its target audience. Alec Baldwin is back voicing the title character alongside James Marsden, Amy Sedaris, Ariana Greenblatt, Eva Longoria, Jimmy Kimmel, Lisa Kudrow, and Jeff Goldblum. Tom McGrath resumes directorial duties.
In the spring of 2017, The Boss Baby was projected to earn around $30 million for its start. However, it blew past those estimates with $50.2 million in its opening frame and eventually took in $175 million domestically. Several factors are likely to complicate that kind of debut for part II.
For one, some of the little viewers who flocked to see it are four years older now. COVID-19 is still somewhat limiting potential. This was originally slated for March before its pandemic related delay. Family Business is also hitting streamer Peacock on the same day and some may simply choose to hold their Baby viewing from the comfort of home. That said, Peacock is not anywhere in the spectator realm of the big boys like Netflix, Amazon, or HBO Max as of yet.
Estimates have this reaching approximately $20 million over the holiday. I’ll give it a slight Baby bump considering its predecessor easily managed to top forecasts.
The Boss Baby: Family Business opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note (02/12): My estimate has gone up significantly from $38.7 million to $51.8 million
Based on the Sega video game franchise that dates back nearly three decades, Sonic the Hedgehog premieres over the four-day Presidents Day frame next weekend. From first time director Jeff Fowler, the reported $95 million adventure comedy stars James Marsden, Jim Carrey, Tika Sumpter, and Ben Schwartz doing the motion capture work as the title character.
Movies based on video games have had a checkered box office history. This is a genre littered with disappointments from Super Mario Bros. to Double Dragon to Street Fighter to Assassin’s Creed. On the other hand, last summer’s Pokemon entry Detective Pikachu set a best ever opening for such pics with $54 million.
Sonic is certainly a known entity and family audiences could gravitate towards it now that Jumanji: The Next Level and (to a lesser extent) Dolittle are winding down. This is not expected to reach Pikachu levels, but a Friday to Monday haul in the high 30s to low 40s range is anticipated and likely.
Sonic the Hedgehog opening weekend prediction: $51.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 