Tag: I’m Not Ashamed

Box Office Predictions: October 28-30

For the previous two weekends at the box office, we’ve seen a total of seven features roll out in wide release. As the final frame of October is upon us, we just have one to close the month out – Inferno. This is the third teaming of director Ron Howard with Tom Hanks in adapting Dan Brown’s Robert Langdon novels to the screen. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inferno Box Office Prediction

While Inferno should have no trouble debuting at #1, just how much it makes is a legit question. I’ve got it pegged at just over $30M, though my blog readers tend to disagree with 64% saying my prediction is Too High. 23% think I’m Just About Right with 13% believing I’m Too Low.

As for holdovers, Boo! A Madea Halloween had a much larger than anticipated debut last weekend (more on that below). Similar Madea titles that opened in the same range dropped about 60% in their second weekend. Could Halloween dip a bit lower since, you know, this is Halloween weekend coming up? Perhaps, but probably not by much.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back should lose close to half its audience. Same for Ouija. The Accountant in weekend #3 has been experiencing good worth of mouth and its drop may not be quite as pronounced (I have it leaping over Evil).

And with that – the top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Inferno

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Ouija: Origin of Evil

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 48%)

Box Office Results (October 21-23)

In an unexpected box office twist, Tyler Perry outpaced Tom Cruise this weekend as Boo! A Madea Halloween scored a terrific debut with $28.5 million, more than double my meager $12.5M estimate. This marks the third highest debut for a Madea titled pic and ensures this character will be having other holiday fun (Thanksgiving’s probably next) into the future.

It was expected to top the charts, but Madea blocked that as Jack Reacher: Never Go Back debuted in second with $22.8 million (just below my $23.9M estimate). The Tom Cruise sequel suffered from middling reviews and it was following up a predecessor that isn’t exactly beloved. It should struggle to make the $80M earned by the first Reacher and it probably won’t.

Ouija: Origin of Evil didn’t scare up as much business as its predecessor, taking in $14 million for third place (I predicted $15.2M). With a lackluster C Cinemascore grade (same as the first one), it should fade fast, but may not have too calamitous a drop next weekend due to the Halloween holiday.

With all the newbies premiering, The Accountant slipped to fourth with $13.6 million. My prediction? $13.6M! At least I got something right this weekend! Its total stands at $47M.

The Girl on the Train was fifth with $7.1 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The thriller has grossed $58M in three weeks.

The Zack Galifianakis led comedy Keeping Up with Joneses had to settle for seventh place with a poor $5.4 million, well below my $10.1M forecast. It actually performed worse than the star’s comedy from earlier this month, Masterminds. 

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 21-23

It’s a particularly crowded weekend at the box office with four new wide releases hitting the multiplexes and another in semi-wide release. We have Tom Cruise’s action sequel Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, horror prequel Ouija: Origin of Evil, and the Zach Galifianakis led comedy (his second this month) Keeping Up with the Joneses. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/11/jack-reacher-never-go-back-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/12/boo-a-madea-halloween-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/12/ouija-origin-of-evil-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/12/keeping-up-with-the-joneses-box-office-prediction/

To add to the clutter, there’s also the faith-based drama I’m Not Ashamed, which debuts on around 500 screens. I’ve got it pegged at $2 million for its start.

So how will all this shake out? Well, it’s probable that the four newbies will all land in the top 5. I have Reacher rather easily winning the weekend with Ouija as the runner-up. The Accountant (which had a solid debut in the top spot this past weekend) could fall to third with Boo! and Joneses rounding out the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers see my picks for the newcomers:

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back: 50% Too Low, 41% Just About Right, 9% Too High

Ouija: Origin of Evil: 46% Just About Right, 27%, Too High, 27% Too Low

Boo! A Madea Halloween: 33% Too High, 33% Too Low, 33% Just About Right (how about that?!?!)

Keeping Up with the Joneses: 46% Too Low, 39% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Truth be told, this weekend is pretty unpredictable with all the fresh product coming our way. Let’s see what happens, but here’s how I have the top 5:

1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Predicted Gross: $23.9 million

2. Ouija: Origin of Evil

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

3. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Keeping Up with the Joneses

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (October 14-16)

The numbers were quite good for Ben Affleck’s The Accountant as it scored a #1 opening with $24.7 million, easily topping my $17.6M prediction. Even though reviews were quite mixed, audiences liked what they saw it scored an A Cinemascore grade.

The Girl on the Train dipped to second in its sophomore weekend with a 50% drop to $12.2 million (a bit under my $13.4M projection). The Emily Blunt thriller has taken in $46 million thus far.

The stand-up comedy concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now? debuted in third with a decent $11.7 million, not quite matching my $13.5M estimate.

Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children was fourth with $8.9 million (I said $8.2M) to bring its tally to $65 million. Deepwater Horizon rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.8M) and it’s made $49 million.

Last (and least), Max Steel was met with a massive shrug from audience as it opened in 11th place with $2.1 million. I went a bit higher with $3.8M. Look for this one On Demand quite soon.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…