Tag: Illumination Entertainment

April 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my Big George Foreman estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should have a fourth and final weekend atop the charts before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 kicks off May and the summer cinematic season. Coming-of-age dramedy Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and boxing biopic Big George Foreman also the newbies entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction
Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

The revolving door at #2 should belong to Margaret, based on the 1970 Judy Blume bestseller. While a gross approaching $20 million is feasible, I’ll say mid teens is where it lands. It will bank on strong holds in its subsequent frames.

As for Big George Foreman, it might find itself in a close race with the second weekend of Evil Dead Rise for third position. I have Rise falling in the low to mid 60s (similar to the 2013 predecessor Evil Dead). If that occurs, it might win a close decision vs. Foreman.

Mario should have no trouble dominating once again and a mid 30s dip would give it just under $40 million in that fourth outing.

Finally, I have holdover John Wick: Chapter 4 in fifth. That slot could go to Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant or Air, though I have Keanu and company experiencing the smallest decline.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $39.4 million

2. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. Big George Foreman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

As anticipated, it was a three-peat for The Super Mario Bros. Movie as it collected another $59.9 million in coinage. Blasting beyond my $54.8 million prediction, Illumination’s animated juggernaut has amassed $436 million domestically.

Evil Dead Rise proved there’s no horror fatigue for audiences following recent efforts Scream VI, The Pope’s Exorcist, and Renfield. The fifth pic in the franchise opened with an impressive $24.5 million, elevating past my $16.7 million take. That’s just a shade behind what 2013’s Dead ($25.7 million) kicked off with.

Afghanistan War drama Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal couldn’t fill its theaters with a middling $6.3 million. It did premiere a tad ahead of my $5.6 million forecast, but that’s still an unimpressive result.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was fourth with $5.8 million compared to my $4.7 million projection with $168 million in the coffers.

Fifth place belonged to Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves with $5.5 million (I said $4.3 million) as the franchise hopeful is straining to reach nine digits at $82 million.

Air was sixth with $5.4 million in the third weekend – in line with my $4.6 million guesstimate. Total is $41 million.

Plummeting from 2nd to 7th is The Pope’s Exorcist, falling victim to the power of Evil Dead . Down 62% in its sophomore frame with $3.4 million, I was more generous at $4.6 million. The ten-day tally is $15 million.

The story is similar for Renfield, down 59% in weekend #2 with $3.2 million (I went with $3.9 million). The tepid two-week total is $13 million.

Finally, Beau Is Afraid with Joaquin Phoenix (generating wildly divergent reactions) played well in very limited NY/LA showings last weekend. Yet it stumbled in wider release. The multi-genre odyssey made $2.7 million on just under 1000 screens. I was higher at $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

And in the meantime, listen to my box office thoughts on your favorite podcast platform by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation!

April 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.

As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.

Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.

Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historical drama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.

Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.

So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.8 million

2. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. The Pope’s Exoricst

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Air

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

**7. Beau is Afraid

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

9. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.

Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.

Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.

Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.

Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.

I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).

April 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Renfield Box Office Prediction
The Pope’s Exorcist Box Office Prediction
Suzume Box Office Prediction

Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.

Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).

The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.

Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.

Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $74.9 million

2. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Air

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Suzume

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. The Pope’s Exorcist

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.

John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.

Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.

Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.

Finally, faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.

Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!

Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

The Super Mario Bros. Movie is out tomorrow and looks to rule the Easter holiday frame. While big money is about to flow through the pipeline, reviews are more of the mixed variety. The Illumination Entertainment animated production of the Nintendo property sits at 56% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is the 13th feature from the studio. Of the previous dozen, only one (2013’s Despicable Me 2) has managed a Best Animated Feature mention. Illumination’s titles generate coins, but not nominations. That doesn’t look to change with Mario and Luigi’s new adventure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction
Air Box Office Prediction

It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.

Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

3. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

4. Air

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. His Only Son

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.

Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo2V5CQMuJw&t=15s

Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.

Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).

Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

Universal and Illumination hopes The Super Mario Bros. Movie earns a lot of coinage when it debuts Wednesday, April 5th. The animated adaptation of the wildly influential and popular Nintendo game (and numerous spin-offs) comes from the Teen Titans! Go team of Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic. Chris Pratt and Charlie Day voice the iconic Mario and Luigi with Anya Taylor-Joy as the Princess. Other performers behind the mic include Jack Black, Keegan Michael-Key, Seth Rogen, Fred Armisen, Sebastian Maniscalco, and Charles Martinet (who voiced the plumbers in the original 80s game).

Given how huge this property has been for decades, the lack of cinematic treatments is a little surprising. Nintendo, however, is leery of licensing for adaptations. That might have something to do with 1993’s Super Mario Bros,, the live-action version with Bob Hoskins, John Leguizamo, and Dennis Hopper that critics scorched. It bombed upon arrival that summer when the Jurassic dinosaurs ruled the season.

It’s probably a safe assumption that Illumination won’t drop the ball with the moneymaking potential of this franchise. They’ve repeatedly proven their moneymaking abilities with the Despicable Me and Sing series and more.

Arriving over the five-day Easter holiday, Mario should capitalize on youngsters being out of school and the adults who owned the various iterations of the game attending. This is one “kid’s pic” where many of the parents will be cool with tagging along.

Over the Wednesday to Sunday frame, I believe $100 million plus could be in the pipeline. It might even get to nine digits over the traditional weekend.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Air prediction, click here:

Air Box Office Prediction

July 15-17 Box Office Predictions

A trio of new titles populate the mid-July box office though Thor is unlikely to be dethroned in his second frame. We have rural drama Where the Crawdads Sing (based on the bestseller), animated martial arts family comedy Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and the 1950s set dramedy Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Where the Crawdads Sing Box Office Prediction

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Box Office Prediction

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Box Office Prediction

Despite solid reviews thus far, Paris won’t reach the top five and top ten could even be tricky. Part of that is due to its smallish output on roughly 900 screens. My estimate is $2.3 million.

The wild card could be Crawdads. The novel is recent (it was the top selling book of 2019) and has its ardent fans. A debut of over $20 million is possible and it could reach the runner-up position. I’m putting it a bit under that and that should mean third place.

As for Paws, my projection of just over $10 million would put it in a dead heat with Top Gun: Maverick in its 8th weekend. If anything, I could see my guesstimate for the animated pic being revised down.

Thor: Love and Thunder hammered out the third largest opening of 2022 (more on that below). Yet the B+ Cinemascore average (low for the MCU) could mean a hefty sophomore dip. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the same grade and tumbled 67%. A low mid 60s drop for the Asgardian king should mean a $50-55 million range.

Minions: The Rise of Gru should remain in second (unless Crawdads impresses) with a third weekend take of between $20-25 million.

Here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Thor: Love and Thunder

Predicted Gross: $50.2 million

2. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Predicted Gross: $23.1 million

3. Where the Crawdads Sing

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

4. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

5. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

Box Office Results (July 8-10)

Thor: Love and Thunder easily set a personal best among the four Chris Hemsworth led pics with $144.1 million, besting predecessor Ragnarok by over $20 million. While a rock solid start, it’s on the lower end of expectations and I said $155.7 million. Out of the 29 MCU blockbusters, it ranks 12th as far as beginnings.

Minions: The Rise of Gru slipped to second with $46.1 million, just shy of my $48.8 million prediction. The Illumination smash is up to $210 million already.

Top Gun: Maverick was third with $15.5 million and I was more generous with $18.5 million. Tom Cruise’s phenomenon is flying high with $597 million.

Elvis was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11.6 million) as the biopic has taken in  a sturdy $91 million.

Jurassic World: Dominion rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I went with $9.1 million. Total is $350 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Box Office Prediction

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank from Paramount and Nickelodeon hopes to bite into the family audience market when it opens July 15th. The animated martial arts comedy takes its inspiration from the classic 1974 Western spoof Blazing Saddles. Rob Minkoff (a former Disney vet who co-directed 1994’s The Lion King) helms along with Mark Koetsier. The voice cast includes Michael Cera, Ricky Gervais, Michelle Yeoh, Samuel L. Jackson, George Takei, Aasif Mandvi, Djimon Hounsou, Gabriel Iglesias, and Mr. Mel Brooks himself.

Originally titled Blazing Samurai, Legend arrives two weeks after Illumination’s massive Minions: The Rise of Gru and two weeks before DC League of Super-Pets. This isn’t based on known IP and I suspect it may get lost in the summer shuffle.

Even lower tier animated offerings can over perform, but I’m putting this barely over double digits for a quiet start.

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my Where the Crawdads Sing prediction, click here:

Where the Crawdads Sing Box Office Prediction

For my Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris prediction, click here:

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Minions: The Rise of Gru

Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.

Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.

2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.

Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Minions: The Rise of Gru Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M

Illumination and Universal Pictures should light up the Fourth of July weekend at the box office with Minions: The Rise of Gru. The sequel to the 2015 spinoff prequel and the fifth overall entry in the Despicable Me franchise, Kyle Balda directs with Steve Carell returning to voice the title character. Other performers in the booth include Pierre Coffin, Taraji P. Henson, Michelle Yeoh, RZA, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Lucy Lawless, Dolph Lundgren, Danny Trejo, Russell Brand, Julie Andrews, and Alan Arkin. How’s that for eclectic? I’m pretty sure this marks the first collaboration between Van Damme and Andrews.

This series has proved to be a financial windfall for its studio. All four previous pics have made over $250 million domestically. Minions took in $115 million out of the gate seven summers back with $336 million overall. Immediate predecessor Despicable Me 3 from 2017, while still a hit, wasn’t as high. It premiered with $72 million and ended up with $264 million.

Three years was previously the longest wait between films. The five year gap is a bit risky as some of its fans are simply older. We’ve also seen a very recent example of an animated disappointment with Pixar’s Lightyear. 

That said, I suspect Gru will rise to the occasion with a four-day holiday haul in the $75-85 million range. I’m starting out on the lower end of that scale, but my estimate could go up in the days ahead.

Minions: The Rise of Gru opening weekend prediction: $86.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)