A remake of a remake, MGM is hoping moviegoers want to do TheHustle next weekend. The pic updates the Steve Martin/Michael Caine comedy DirtyRottenScoundrels, which itself was a reworking of the 1964 Marlon Brando/David Niven effort BedtimeStory. Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson are the newest pair of con artists. The supporting cast includes Alex Sharp, Tim Blake Nelson, and Dean Norris. Chris Addison directs.
Hathaway hasn’t headlined a high-profile laugher since 2015’s TheIntern, which made $17 million for its start. Wilson, on the other hand, starred in Isn’tItRomantic earlier this year and that debuted at $14.2 million. I like that comp better and I’ll throw in another: 2015’s HotPursuit with Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It opened in mid May as well with $13.9 million.
That sounds about right here with a so-so low teens take.
TheHustle opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million
For my PokemonDetectivePikachu prediction, click here:
Reese Witherspoon is back in rom com territory when Home Again debuts in theaters next weekend. The Open Road Films release casts the actress as a single mom who allows three college age men to bunk at her place and hijinks and hopeful hilarity ensue. The pic marks the directorial debut of Hallie Meyers-Shyer (who also penned the screenplay), daughter of Nancy Meyers who’s made similar genre titles such as Something’s Gotta Give, The Holiday, It’s Complicated, and The Intern. Costars include Nat Wolff, Jon Rudnitsky, Pico Alexander, Michael Sheen, and Candice Bergen.
The film should have little trouble placing second on the charts after the box office juggernaut that is likely to be It. This could potentially serve as decent counter programming for female audiences who aren’t feeling the clown horror. That said, Witherspoon’s drawing power has waned a bit through the years and the actress is past the days when she experienced $30M+ openers like Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Her last headliner was the poorly reviewed Hot Pursuit, which debuted to just under $14M in the summer of 2015. She has gotten a bit of recent exposure with her Emmy nominated turn in the HBO miniseries Big Little Lies.
Besides It, it could help Home that there’s little in the way of competition. Due to that factor, I’ll say this manages to top single digits.
Home Again opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
The four day Memorial Day weekend at the box office promises to be a fascinating one as Disney’s Tomorrowland and horror reboot Poltergeist enter the marketplace in competition with holdover hits Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It could easily create a situation where all top five films over the holiday frame post numbers north of $25 million. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Tomorrowland and Poltergeist here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Tomorrowland will manage to top the charts, though it could face competition from Pitch Perfect 2. That musical comedy sequel performed way above expectations this weekend (more on that below) and depending on its drop, could contend for the #1 position, especially if Tomorrowland doesn’t meet projections. That said, I do have Pitch losing over half its audience due to its front loaded amazing start.
My estimate for Poltergeist is a bit on the low end compared to others and I have it debuting third. As for other holdovers, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Mad Max: Fury Road could find themselves in a close race for the four spot, but I’ll give the slight edge to Marvel’s heroes.
And with that, my top five predictions for the four day, Friday to Monday holiday weekend:
1. Tomorrowland
Predicted Gross: $44.6 million
2. Pitch Perfect 2
Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Poltergeist
Predicted Gross: $29.3 million
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
Predicted Gross: $25.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (May 15-17)
As mentioned above, Pitch Perfect 2 had a shockingly great opening with $69.2 million. This marks the largest opening ever for a musical and third biggest comedic debut in history. Even more impressively, it made more in its first three days than its 2012 predecessor made in its entire domestic run ($65M). Perfect soared above my $42M projection and you can rest assure a third edition will be forthcoming.
Mad Max: Fury Road had to settle for a second place start far behind Pitch, but its $45.4 million haul is nothing to be ashamed of. And neither, ladies and gentleman, was my prediction… $45.4M million! Gold star! This is a solid debut for a reboot of a franchise that had been dormant for thirty years and its international grosses have impressed as well.
Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped to third after two weeks on top with $38.8 million, just above my $36.8M prediction. The Marvel tale has amassed $372M so far. The Reese Witherspoon comedy flop Hot Pursuit was fourth with $5.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $7.2M estimate. The critically drubbed flick’s gross is at just $23M. Furious 7 was fifth with $3.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five (its overall is at $343M). I had holdover The Age of Adaline at fifth with $4.1 million, but it was seventh with $3.1M (current earnings: $37M).
And that’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your holiday weekend!
Summer 2015’s sequel and reboot mania kicks into high gear this weekend as the critically acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road (arriving thirty years after the last Max feature) and musical comedy Pitch Perfect 2 hit theaters. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Both should make quite an impact. Fury Road has been blessed with truly awesome trailers and TV spots and its current 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes inspires supreme confidence. Pitch Perfect 2 is the follow-up to a cult hit three years ago and it is also receiving favorable reviews and should capture a hefty young adult/female audience. I look for both to achieve openings north of $40 million.
That likely means Avengers: Age of Ultron will fall to third in its third weekend after two weeks on top, barring the unlikely scenario of the two newbies not meeting expectations. The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara flop Hot Pursuit should dip to fourth with The Age of Adaline rounding out the top five.
And with that, my predictions the weekend:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
Predicted Gross: $45.4 million
2. Pitch Perfect 2
Predicted Gross: $42 million
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Hot Pursuit
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. The Age of Adaline
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (May 8-10)
Avengers: Age of Ultron easily maintained its box office dominance, but its 59% drop-off in weekend #2 was a bit steeper than estimated. The Marvel sequel took in $77.7 million, below my $90.6M prediction. The ten day total stands at $313 million. While the numbers it’s accomplishing are gargantuan, this follow-up has no realistic shot of reaching the $623M achieved by the 2012 predecessor.
The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit was savaged by critics and audiences responded in kind with a weak $13.9 million debut, far below my $21.3M projection. Look for this dud to fade fast.
Leftovers populated the rest of the top five and they all experienced smaller dips that I estimated. The Age of Adaline was third with $5.8 million (I predicted $3.5M) and its total is at $31 million. Furious 7 took fourth with $5.4 million (I said $3.5M) for an overall haul of $338M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 rounded out the top five with $5.3 million (I predicted $3.2M) and its cume sits at $58M. Last and least… the Jack Black comedy rolled out on approximately 1000 screens and sputtered with a putrid $469,000 – not coming close to even my meager $1.7M projection.
That’ll do it for now, folks! Be sure to check this coming weekend for my Tomorrowland and Poltergeist predictions. As always, next Monday I’ll bring you full predictions and results from the coming weekend. Until then…
Only one new film is daring to even challenge the second weekend of the Avengers squad and that would be Hot Pursuit, the cop comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It will attempt to bring in the female crowd and you can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I have Pursuit getting off to a pretty decent start, nothing will stand in the way of Iron Man and company reigning supreme for two weeks in a row. The big question is how far Ultron falls in its second frame. Will it drop the 50% that its 2012 predecessor did or in the 58% range of Iron Man 3 in 2013? I’ve got it dropping somewhere in between, though closer to the former (more on Avengers opening weekend further down).
The rest of the top five should be littered with leftovers all making under $4 million. The Jack Black/James Marsden comedy The D Train is only opening on around 700 screens and I’ll predict $1.7 million for it, which would leave it outside the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Predicted Gross: $90.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Hot Pursuit
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
3. Furious 7
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. The Age of Adaline
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (May 1-3)
All prognosticators had one question when it came to Avengers: Age of Ultron: would it manage to have the largest domestic opening of all time and beat out the $207.4 million record of The Avengers? I predicted it would with an estimate of $212.7 million.
And I and many others were wrong and you probably have American Pharoah, Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquiao to thank. Ultron still performed gangbusters with $191.2 million, posting the second all-time domestic debut. Yet the sports bonanza that took place all day and night Saturday likely kept it from setting the record. Still – don’t expect to hear much complaining from Disney or Marvel.
Holdovers populated the rest of the top five with all pictures dropping further than I thought they would, due to Avengers and all the weekend activity. Furious 7 was second with $6.6 million (I said $9.6M) and it lifted its cume to $331M. The Age of Adaline took third in its second weekend with $6.2 million ($8M predicted here) and its ten day total is $23M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 was fourth with $5.8 million (I said $8.7M) and it’s made $51M at press time. Finally, Home was fifth with $3.4 million (my projection: $5.8M) and its total is $158M.
Looking to make the kind of loot that the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy entry made two summers ago, Hot Pursuit opens this Friday. The comedy stars Reese Witherspoon and Modern Family’s Sofia Vergara. Oscar winner Witherspoon is the bumbling cop protecting Vergara’s witness character.
Reviews have yet to surface and the trailers don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. There’s also the matter of Avengers: Age of Ultron’s sophomore weekend, in which it should continue to easily dominate. Still, Reese has had a pretty solid track record in this genre, with hits like Legally Blonde, Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Yet that luck didn’t extend to her last comedy, 2012’s This Means War, which opened to just $17 million and petered out at $54 million domestic.
Pursuit should manage to make more than that and I’ll estimate a fairly decent low 20s premiere.
Hot Pursuit opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million
The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.
In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.
Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.
The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.
Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.
2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow.
That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.
So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four.
Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.
As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!
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