The wildly unpredictable career of David Gordon Green stays wildly unpredictable with Nutcrackers, a family dramedy that opened the Toronto Film Festival yesterday. Mr. Green first captured the admiration of critics with the 2000 indie George Washington. He eventually moved onto stoner comedies like Pineapple Express and Your Highness and then some well-regarded grounded dramas like Joe and Stronger. As of late, he’s made sequels to horror classics in the newest Halloween trilogy and The Exorcist: Believer.
His latest is another genre u-turn with Ben Stiller as a career man who travels to Ohio to care for his four orphaned nephews. It marks Stiller’s first headlining role since The Meyerowitz Stories in 2017. Linda Cardellini, Tim Heidecker, and Edi Patterson costar.
Last year, TIFF’s premiere picture The Boy and the Heron started an Oscar journey that culminated in a Best Animated Feature victory. Obviously Nutcrackers won’t be eligible for that race. However, its chances of making any others are about as realistic. The Metacritic score is a ho-hum 55 at press time. That’s not going to lead to awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s not just priests exorcising the demonic spirits in The Exorcist: Believer, a direct sequel to the iconic horror phenomenon from a half century ago. There’s more inclusivity when it comes to the number of faith leaders involved. We have two subjects undergoing the eventual rituals via two teenage girls. David Gordon Green recently redid the Halloween franchise with three pictures that underwhelmed this viewer. He hopes to start a fresh trilogy with Believer. Despite more characters doing the casting out and doubling those being possessed, this relaunch is far from bewitching. Instead it’s a sullen and poorly edited genre exercise that could’ve passed (or failed) as any knockoff of the original. If it weren’t for Ellen Burstyn briefly returning to her Oscar nominated role, slapping The Exorcist moniker on it seems egregious. I suppose it still does. The sixth one is not the devilish charm. Neither were the second, third, fourth, or fifth though pretending they don’t exist doesn’t help.
A prologue shows us the tragic birth of Angela (Lidya Jewett). Her father Victor (Leslie Odom Jr.) is doing photography work in Haiti with his very expectant wife. An earthquake severely injures her to the point where Victor must choose whether she or his unborn daughter live. Thirteen years later, Victor and Angela are living a seemingly normal existence in Georgia. Yet when Angela and her friend Katherine (Olivia O’Neill) try to summon the spirit of her departed mother, they end up disappearing for three days and then returning. If you don’t get the symbolism behind that, the sometimes unintentionally funny screenplay will explain it slowly and obviously.
Slowly is an appropriate word for the first half as Angela and Katherine aren’t exactly themselves upon reemergence. Believer seems to forget that so many Exorcist regurgitations have been foisted upon us. Some have worked. Just none in the official canon (though The Exorcist III has its loopy delights). We know where this is headed and Green’s restart plods along in the known directions. Except for one violent outburst, Burstyn’s return is largely forgettable and a little pointless.
The interfaith participation in saving the girls is a slightly new wrinkle. By the third act, the Catholics are sitting it out and a hodgepodge of would be saviors step in to fill the void. This includes Ann Dowd as Victor’s neighbor (who takes over for the priest because she wanted to be a nun), a Hoodoo practicer, a Baptist, and a Pentecostal preacher. If these characters had walked into a bar, maybe a more lively movie would’ve resulted. Instead they walk into a procedure we’ve seen time and again. A double exorcism does not double the thrills. This was shocking and shockingly well-made (not to mention scary as hell) in 1973. Now it’s unsurprisingly bland.
As the mom of a school shooter preparing to meet with family members of the departed, Judy Greer stars in Michael Shannon’s directorial debut Eric Larue. Brett Neveu adapts his own play with a supporting cast including Paul Sparks, Alison Pill, Tracy Letts, and Alexander Skarsgård. It premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and is seeking domestic distribution for later this year.
Reviews for the picture itself are a mixed bag with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the critical reaction compares it to 2021’s similarly themed Mass. That film received more acclaim and came up empty at the Oscars.
The story should be the same for Larue with one possible exception. Greer is generating career best notices. She’s one of those performers that you’ll recognize from many projects on the big and small screen. The lengthy list includes Adaptation, 13 Going on 30, The Village, 27 Dresses, The Descendants, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Halloween and sequel Halloween Kills.
Normally I’d say that Larue might be too minor a project for Greer to contend for Best Actress attention. However, Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nom a few months back for To Leslie at least has me wondering. Greer is well-respected with two decades of character actor work. I wouldn’t count on her getting in, but the right campaign could change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Studios usually don’t roll out movies that they think will scare up huge box office dollars on Halloween weekend and that holds true for 2022. We have the supernatural horror tale Prey for the Devil and the expansions of Till and Tár (both with likely Best Actress Oscar contenders in Danielle Deadwyler and Cate Blanchett, respectively). You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Devil may round up the most business of the newcomers, but my mid single digits forecast would put it in fourth place behind a trio of holdovers. My take on Till could put it in fifth or sixth position based on how Halloween Ends holds after its massive sophomore frame plummet (more on that below). As for Tár, it’s slated for approximately 1000 venues and my $1.8 million projection leaves it outside of the top five or six.
The top 3 should remain the same with Black Adam having no trouble topping the charts for a second weekend. How far it falls is a better question. With a so-so B+ Cinemascore grade, I foresee a slightly higher dip than the 54% that Shazam! experienced in 2019. If it approaches closer to 60%, a gross in the upper 20s would be the result.
Ticket to Paradise with George Clooney and Julia Roberts slightly surpassed expectations and it should hold well with a 35-40% decrease. The runaway hit Smile should be the fright fest of choice in third place as it continues its meager declines.
And with that, my top 6 take for the spooky close out session of October:
1. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
2. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
3. Smile
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. Prey for the Devil
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. Halloween Ends
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. Till
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (October 21-23)
The DCEU’s Black Adam, with Dwayne Johnson seemingly everywhere promoting it, opened in line with most prognostications at $67 million. That’s a bit above my $64.7 million take and in line with the studio’s Aquaman from 2018. It’s safe to say we haven’t seen the last of the character. As mentioned, this should easily repeat in 1st position this weekend (and the weekend after until Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hits).
Rom com Ticket to Paradise capitalized on its star power for $16.5 million, bettering my prediction of $13.7 million. That’s a needed boost for a genre that’s been struggling in recent years and an older crowd turned out to make the multiplex trek.
Smile continued to make Paramount happy with $8.4 million, a shade below my $9.5 million estimate. At $84 million after four weeks, the low budget pic is barreling toward $100 million domestically.
Halloween Ends went from 1st to 4th with a momentous 80% reduction. At $8 million, the final showdown between Laurie Strode and Michael Myers didn’t match my $10.4 million projection. The two-week total is $54 million as it will fall quite a bit short of the $92 million that predecessor Halloween Kills made.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $5.2 million) and $28 million overall.
Dwayne Johnson lends his star power to the DC Extended Universe in Black Adam and there’s the megawatt combo of George Clooney and Julia Roberts in the rom com Ticket to Paradise. They are the weekend’s new offerings and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
While Adam is unlikely to approach the $100 million plus starts of other DCEU efforts, it should easily rock the charts with a gross in the mid 60s.
The two spot could be more of a battle. However, I’m guessing the Clooney/Roberts team-up (while it would’ve been more potent 20 years ago) should nab the runner-up position.
With a C+ Cinemascore grade, Halloween Kills couldn’t keep up with its two predecessors Halloween (2018) and Halloween Kills (2021). Last October, Kills plummeted 70% in its sophomore outing. I expect Ends may even get slashed a tad more. There’s even a possibility its second weekend could place behind the fourth frame of Smile, but I doubt it.
Finally, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile should round out the top five and here’s how I see it looking:
1. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $64.7 million
2. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Halloween Ends
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
4. Smile
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (October 14-16)
Coming in nearly $10 million below the last tussle of Laurie Strode and Michael Myers was Halloween Ends with $40 million (under my take of $47.6 million). The budget is low so profitability isn’t an issue. Yet it will take the current (and final?) trilogy out on a low note.
Smile continued its impressive holds in second place with $12.5 million, just ahead of my $11.8 million estimate. The horror hit (which is likely starting its own franchise) has amassed $71 million in three weeks.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was third with $7.3 million (on target with my $7.2 million call). The family friendly musical stands at a middling $22 million after 10 days of release.
The Woman King was fourth with $3.7 million (I said $4.1 million) for $59 million overall.
Lastly, Amsterdam (as expected) fell a precipitous 57% in its sophomore weekend to $2.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $3 million. The big budget flop has taken in only $11 million.
One of the most violent moments in Halloween Ends involves an actual record (as in the vinyl variety) skipping and it’s one of the cooler parts of this trilogy ender. There’s also many instances where a record skipping sound effect would’ve been appropriate. As in – what in the world is this movie doing?!?!
Our final pairing of Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) and Michael Myers after almost four and a half decades features some bewilderingly bad decisions. The odd choices that don’t work stack up higher than the body count. On the plus side, I at least found its unpredictable nature to be more intriguing than most of what occurred in predecessor Halloween Kills. Does that make it better? Probably not. It means neither were of much quality and 2018’s starter was just OK too. That could be the legacy of the 11th, 12th, and 13th overall franchise entries.
In Haddonfield, Illinois in 2019, there were tragedies on the spooky holiday not related to Mr. Myers. Corey (Rohan Campbell) is babysitting a young boy when their game of hide and seek takes an unplanned head banging turn. Though accidental in nature, Corey is looked upon as a pariah by the townspeople four years later. He does find a sympathetic figure in Allyson (Andi Matichak), granddaughter of Laurie who is accustomed to grief. Their blossoming romance concerns Grandma, who notices something is off with Corey in a way that reminds her of her tormentor (who’s been AWOL).
This previous paragraph could beg your question: why is a dude who accidentally offed a kid and his strange relationship with Allyson getting so much attention? Well, it’s what Halloween Ends is about for quite a while. On that level, there are problems. First and foremost, any character development of Allyson from the first two features is slashed as she inexplicably falls for Corey in about five minutes. I’m not asking for realism in this genre, but this romance is a badly developed one.
Myers is often a supporting player in Ends along with Laurie (though she has more to do than her bedridden hospital appearance in Kills). Instead we have the potential Natural Born Killers like union of Corey/Allyson and the former dealing with boring high school bullies and his domineering mother. What we expect from a Halloween flick, eh??
Truth be told, my interest piqued a little when I realized David Gordon Green and his three cowriters (including Danny McBride) were going off the rails. The diversionary tactics mostly stall. By the time we get to the showdown between Laurie and Myers, it seems almost anticlimactic. Even though this trilogy ignores everything after 1978’s brilliant original, we’ve kinda been there and done that with 1998’s Halloween: H2O.
Curtis brings the tough survivor attitude that we’ve witnessed before and it helps in the final act. Campbell truly is the lead character and his performance is shaky at best. I’m not sure I buy the “ends” part of the title though Laurie and Michael’s saga does appear to have reached its conclusion. Maybe The Shape will take another form someday in the reboot/requel/prequel or whatever term comes next. The mediocrity of this three-arch journey dies here.
Horror should rule the box office with Halloween Ends debuting and Smile continuing its impressive run. Jamie Lee Curtis’s alleged final battle with Michael Myers is the only new release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Predecessor Halloween Kills from last year made considerably less out of the gate than its predecessor from 2018. Even with a simultaneous release on Peacock (same as Kills), I will give Ends a start in the mid to high 40s. That’s on pace with Kills.
Smile should easily hold the #2 spot after a very sturdy hold in its sophomore outing (more on that below). Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (after a unimpressive opening) may experience a high 30s second weekend fall while The Woman King and bomb Amsterdam round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it:
1. Halloween Ends
Predicted Gross: $47.6 million
2. Smile
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
4. The Woman King
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. Amsterdam
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (October 7-9)
I expected Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile to take a bigger bite out of the charts and open in first place. That didn’t occur as the family friendly musical took in $11.4 million for second place. This is well below my prediction of $17.6 million.
That’s because Smile had a remarkable hold (especially for its genre) at $18.4 million. I was lower at $13.3 million. The low budget Paramount scare fest has amassed $50 million in ten days and looks like a solid contender to make nine digits domestically.
Despite the star power of Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and many more, David O. Russell’s critically lambasted Amsterdam was a dud with $6.4 million, under my $8.4 million take. Look for this see a drop in the mid 50s (at least) and sink fast.
The Woman King was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $4.7 million) and it’s reached $54 million total.
Don’t Worry Darling rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I was right there with $3.4 million) for $38 million overall.
The culmination of this iteration of Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) battling Michael Myers arrives on October 14th with Halloween Ends. Said to be Curtis’s final appearance in the 44-year-old franchise (though I’m sure Myers will manage to return in some form), David Gordon Green is back directing along with cowriter Danny McBride. It comes a year after Halloween Kills and four years behind Halloween which began the trilogy. It’s the 13th overall entry in the series overall. Costars include James Jude Courtney and OG Nick Castle doubling up again as the iconic slasher, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and Kyle Richards.
2018’s Halloween was a juggernaut with a $76 million opening and $159 million eventual domestic haul. Kills still killed, but to a lesser degree with a $49 million start and $92 million overall take. Like its predecessor, Ends will be simultaneously available on Peacock.
In addition to the streaming option that could siphon away viewers, horror fans have had plenty to enjoy lately (Barbarian and Smile for example). That said, there’s obviously a built-in base here.
I do expect diminishing returns though not close to the disparity between 2018 and 2021. Mid to high 40s is where I see it and considering the reported $20 million budget, that’s a profitable cut for Universal.
Halloween Ends opening weekend prediction: $47.6 million
The eyes of box office prognosticators will be focused on the second frame for Marvel’s Eternals. It should have no trouble repeating in the top spot, but its drop could be significant following mixed audience and critical reactions. We do have some newcomers: Clifford the Big Red Dog and potential Oscar favorite Belfast from Kenneth Branagh (debuting on roughly 600 screens). You can find peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Clifford is getting a jump on the weekend by opening Wednesday (with early previews Tuesday). That could be a shrewd move considering kiddos are off on Thursday for Veterans Day. It should firmly plant itself in the #2 spot after Eternals.
As for Belfast, the awards chatter should help it achieve a decent per theater average. It will look to play steadily for weeks over the Oscar season. My $2.3 million estimate leaves it outside the top five.
Back to Eternals. The B Cinemascore grade is rather troubling for its sophomore outing (most MCU titles get an A). With audiences clearly not digging it in the way they typically greet the studio’s material, a drop in the low to even high 60s seems where this is headed.
Holdovers Dune, No Time to Die, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage should fill the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it going down:
1. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
2. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Dune
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (November 5-7)
The shaky WOM for Eternals undoubtedly impacted its earnings as the Chloe Zhao effort took in $71.2 million, under my $77.8 million projection. That would be a fantastic debut for almost anything not MCU related. However, Eternals premiere is the smallest for Marvel since 2015’s Ant-Man. As mentioned, it could be headed for a precipitous drop in weekend #2.
Dune slipped to second after two weeks on top with $7.7 million (I said $7.2 million). The sci-fi epic has amassed $84 million in three weeks.
No Time to Die held up very well for third in its fifth go-round at $6 million – higher than my $4.8 million take. Total is $143 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage hit the four spot at $4.4 million compared to my $3.8 million projection. It’s nearing the double century mark with $197 million.
Ron’s Gone Wrong, which I was wrong about staying in the top five, was fifth at $3.5 million for a two-week total of $17 million.
The French Dispatch from Wes Anderson expanded its screen count and made $2.5 million for sixth place with $8 million overall.
Halloween Kills fell hard with its namesake holiday having passed. The $2.3 million gross for seventh (I was more generous at $3 million) brought the earnings to $84 million.
Finally, the Princess Diana biopic Spencer with Kristen Stewart couldn’t reach my prognosis. Starting out in nearly 1000 venues, the $2.1 million haul was just over half of my $4.1 million prediction. It will hope that Oscar buzz for its lead will contribute to small declines in coming days.
Blogger’s Note (11/03): I’ve seen some unconfirmed data indicating Spencer will open on just under 1000 screens. If that holds true, I’m revising my estimate from $4.6M to $4.1M.
Blogger’s Update (11/02): Even though I don’t have a theater count at press time, I am factoring in the opening of Spencer to my estimates. My detailed prediction for it is here:
My $4.6M projection puts it in the top five so it’s now a top 6 for the weekend ahead!
The third of four 2021 Marvel Cinematic Universe titles hits this weekend (thanks to some COVID delays) with Chloe Zhao’s Eternals. It’s eagerly awaited, but it also faces some unusual challenges for the MCU. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The buzz for Eternals is mixed in a way that its studio isn’t accustomed to. Sitting at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, the pic has the lowest RT score of the 26 MCU entries dating back to 2008. That has caused me to revise my estimate down just a touch, but I still believe mid to high 70s is the probable haul.
Unsurprisingly, Eternals is the only wide release as November dawns. Dune, after two weeks on top, may lose around 50-55% of its audience for second place with No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage providing a sequel heavy presence in the rest of the top five.
My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, after being the top newcomer this past weekend, should drop precipitously around 70% (like its predecessor) and fall outside the high five flicks.
With that, here’s how I see it looking:
1. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $77.8 million
2. Dune
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
3. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Spencer
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
6. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (October 29-31)
I supersized my normal estimates with a top ten due to the prevalence of newbies over the Halloween frame. All but one, as I predicted, fell outside the top five.
As anticipated, Dune reigned supreme in its sophomore outing. However, it fell more than I figured. The $15.4 million take didn’t match my $18.5 million and the two-week tally is $69 million.
Other holdovers held a bit sturdier than I thought they would. Halloween Kills was second with $8.7 million compared to my $6.1 million projection and it’s up to $85 million with the century mark in view.
No Time to Die was third with $7.7 million (I said $6.3 million) and Mr. Bond has reached $133 million.
My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission was the best performing newbie at $6.4 million, on pace with my $6.1 million prediction.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage rounded out the top five with $5.7 million, on pace with my forecast of $5.6 million. Total is $190 million as it approaches double century territory.
Antlers debuted in sixth with a mediocre $4.2 million. It did surpass my take of $3.2 million.
Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho started out in seventh with just $4.1 million, not matching my $5.2 million estimate.
Ron’s Gone Wrong was eighth in weekend #2 at $3.7 million (I went with $4.1 million) as the animated feature has drawn in only $12 million.
The Addams Family 2 followed in ninth with $3 million and I was close at $3.3 million for $52 million overall.
Finally, Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch expanded to nearly 800 screens and took tenth at $2.6 million. I was more hopeful with $3.8 million.
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