Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million
Ryan Reynolds hangs up the Deadpool costume for a bit in order to lend his voice to another hoped for franchise when PokemonDetectivePikachu debuts next weekend. Based on a 2016 video game, the Pokémon series has been thriving for nearly a quarter century in various iterations on Nintendo and on the big screen. Rob Letterman, who was behind the camera on Gulliver’sTravels and Goosebumps, directs. A mix of live-action and animation, the supporting cast includes Justice Smith, Kathryn Newton, Suki Waterhouse, Ken Watanabe, and Bill Nighy.
Warner Bros is certainly hoping a slew of follow-up features are in the cards. A sequel has already been commissioned. With Reynolds in the lead and the popularity of the source material, the studio might find itself in luck. Estimates for the opening weekend gross are wide-ranging – everywhere from $50 million to over $100 million. If it falls on the lower end of that spectrum, it may not top the box office due to the third weekend of the record-breaking Avengers: Endgame.
In 1999, Pokemon: TheFirstMovie opened to $31 million and ended up with $85 million. Sequel Pokemon: TheMovie2000 couldn’t replicate that success with a $19 million start and $43 overall gross. By 2001, the series had run out of gas when Pokemon3: TheMovie opened to $8 million and petered out at $17 million.
Expectations are different this time around. I’ll say Pikachu (The Movie) has an opening in the middle of its huge range and that’s about $10-15 million under what the first movie accomplished overall 20 years ago.
PokemonDetectivePikachu opening weekend prediction: $64.8 million
R.L. Stine’s bestselling series of books gets its sequel next weekend as Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween scares its way into multiplexes. This is the follow-up to the 2015 original that managed a $23.6 million opening and $80 million overall gross. Ari Sandel takes over directorial duties with a cast including Wendi McLendon-Covey, Madison Iseman, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Ken Jeong, and Chris Parnell. Jack Black does reprise his role as Stine, though it’s unclear whether it’s more of a cameo this time around.
The release date close to the holiday it’s named after should help and there’s also little in the way of direct family competition as The House with a Clock in Its Walls (starring Black) is winding down. Venom will be in its second weekend of release, however.
I’ll predict this doesn’t quite manage to match the earnings of its predecessor and it may come in with about 25% less. That would give the second helping of Goosebumps a debut in the high teens.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween opening weekend prediction: $17.3 million
Nearly a quarter century after the wildly popular R.L. Stine’s children’s books were first published, Goosebumps finally makes its way to the silver screen. After dozens of the novels and a TV show, it’s a bit surprising it took so long to get this adaptation off the ground. Tim Burton was attached to helm in the late 90s when Goosebumps was considerably more popular.
Yet here we are and the long gestating Goosebumps has arrived with a simple and sometimes clever concept. Jack Black plays Mr. Stine himself, who lives in a quiet Delaware town with his teenage daughter Hannah (Odeya Rush). When new kid in town Zach (Dylan Minnette) arrives from New York City, he strikes up a friendship with next door neighbor Hannah while Dad strenuously disapproves and doesn’t even want him crossing the fence to visit. We soon find out why. It turns out that Stine’s original manuscripts for his works are locked down and if they’re opened, the many monsters he wrote about escape. This, of course, occurs. For fans of the series, this means a treasure trove of familiar creatures including zombies and werewolves and giant insects and so forth. Leading them is Slappy the Ventriloquist Dummy (don’t call him a dummy though), voiced by Black. It also means a lot of CGI that is decent, but nothing special.
While Tim Burton didn’t direct (Rob Letterman did), this sure sounds like one of his pictures with its Danny Elfman score. Black seems to be having a good time and hams it up a bit. Other performances are adequate (though Minnette is a bit bland). The exception is Jillian Bell as Zach’s love seeking aunt. She seems to stand out lately in everything she does. Amy Ryan has little to do as his mom and Ryan Lee has a couple funny moments as his girl crazy new best bud.
Kids should eat this up and there’s enough fun to keep the adults from checking out. Goosebumps eventually wears a little thin and runs out of interesting situations to put all these dastardly creations (a ho hum sequence with a werewolf terrorizing a mostly empty supermarket doesn’t really cut it). Lovers of these books that have sold 400 million copies have waited quite a while to see Stine’s imagination on the big screen. The results are neither frighteningly good or howlingly bad.
Three new movies populate the marketplace this weekend: Christmas comedy Love the Coopers, true life Chilean mining disaster pic The 33, and football drama My All-American. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I find it highly unlikely that any of them will challenge the box office domination of Spectre or The Peanuts Movie, which will both be entering their sophomore frames. In fact, while I see Coopers and The 33 battling for the third spot and My All-American opening outside the top five, the real drama could be between Bond vs. Snoopy for the #1 position.
That’s because Spectre opened below most expectations, including my own. The last two Bond flicks (Quantum of Solace and Skyfall) experienced 60 and 53 percent second week drops, respectively, and I anticipate this one sliding somewhere in between those two figures.
The Peanuts Movie should not dip near as precipitously in its follow-up frame. I believe it will lose around a third of its audience and my prediction has it within very close striking distance to 007.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian should round out the top five. My $3.8 million estimate for My All-American will likely put it at the #8 spot behind Goosebumps and Bridge of Spies.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 35%)
3. Love the Coopers
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The 33
Predicted Gross: $10 million
5. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)
Box Office Results (November 6-8)
While it’s been setting records overseas, Daniel Craig’s fourth Bond pic Spectre didn’t quite match expectations while still giving the franchise its second best start in history. With its mixed reviews, the film took in $70.4 million, well below my $91.3M forecast. The previous entry, the acclaimed Skyfall, still easily maintains its status as largest opener domestically with its $88M from three years. Spectre opened closer to 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which earned $67M.
The Peanuts Movie opened right in line with expectations with an encouraging $44.2 million, on pace with my $43.4M forecast. With its solid A Cinemascore grade, look for this to start a new family franchise and perform well in the coming weeks.
The rest of the top five was filled with holdovers as The Martian was third with $9 million (ahead of my $7.7M prediction) for a total of $196M. Goosebumps took fourth with $6.8 million (in line with my $6M projection) for an overall $66M gross. Bridge of Spies was fifth with $5.8 million (which is exactly what I predicted… pat on back). It’s made $54M so far.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The box office doldrums over the past couple of weeks should thankfully come to an end with November’s arrival and the release of two very high profile releases: 24th James Bond pic Spectre and Charlie Brown and company returning in the 3D animated The Peanuts Movie. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As you’ll see, I have Spectre actually debuting slightly bigger than previous entry Skyfall, though it’s worth noting that some prognosticators have it earning a bit less. We shall see.
The Peanuts Movie should also get off to a sterling start and I expect it to play well into the Thanksgiving season.
The remainder of the top five should be filled with holdover table scraps as the two newbies should dominate the frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $91.3 million
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $43.4 million
3. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a very quiet Halloween weekend at the multiplexes, The Martian retained its #1 spot for the fourth weekend in five frames with $11.7 million (in range with my $10.8M projection) for a total of $183M. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon collaboration is just the third movie of 2015 to manage a first place showing for 4 weeks (joining American Sniper and Furious 7). Its impressive reign will certainly come to an end with 007 and Snoopy coming in.
Staying in second was Goosebumps with $9.8 million (a bit under my $11.2M estimate) for a solid three week tally of $56M.
Bridge of Spies continued to hold up well from week to week with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.9M projection and its total stands at $45M.
Spots four and five belonged to holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five. Hotel Transylvania 2 was fourth with $5.8 million ($156M total gross) and Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter was fifth with $5.1 million for a weak two weekend total of just $19M.
That’s because the three newcomers that opened all posted less than expected results. Bradley Cooper’s Burnt was sixth with just $5 million, below my $8.9M estimate and represents two flops in a row for the actor after this summer’s Aloha.
Sandra Bullock’s critically panned Our Brand Is Crisis gave the actress the worst wide opening of her career with $3.2 million for eighth place, well below my $7.8M prediction.
And, finally, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse was dead on arrival for a 12th place showing of $1.8 million, under my $4.2M forecast.
This trio of newcomers represents more October flops in a month full of them, including Steve Jobs, The Last Witch Hunter, Pan, Jem and the Holograms, Rock the Kasbah, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, and Crimson Peak.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.
**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million
As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.
And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:
Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
2. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. Burnt
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Our Brand Is Crisis
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.
Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.
Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.
The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.
Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.
In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.
The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.
Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.
Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.
That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.
And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…
It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.
I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.
As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.
And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:
Steve Jobs
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. The Last Witch Hunter
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
4. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
7. Rock the Kasbah
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
8. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
9. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jem and the Holograms
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.
The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.
Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.
Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.
Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.
Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.
Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.
As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.
And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
4. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
6. Pan
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)
As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).
Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.
Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.
Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.
That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.
Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Based on the well known series of children’s books by R.L. Stine, the family friendly Goosebumps opens in theaters next weekend, hoping to bring in a sizable kid crowd. The film is directed by Rob Letterman and Jack Black, who teamed up in 2010 for Gulliver’s Travels, which failed at the box office to the tune of $42 million.
This time around, they appear to have fairly positive word of mouth on their side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score and a sequel possibly in the works. It also doesn’t hurt that its release date is close to Halloween. Family audiences turned out big time for Hotel Transylvania 2, however, so whether there’s a major clamor for scarily themed entertainment remains to be seen.
I could envision this opening to around the same number that Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day made last October: $18.3 million. I’ll say Goosebumps just tops that for a respectable start and we’ll see how it plays in future weekends.
Goosebumps opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million
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