Tag: Free State of Jones

McConaughey: Everything’s Not Alright Alright

When this blog started in the fall of 2012, Matthew McConaughey was coming off a solid two-year period which saw him headline the surprise legal drama hit The Lincoln Lawyer and attract rave reviews for his supporting role in Magic Mike.

Yet 2013 elevated the actor to a whole new stratosphere. His work in the acclaimed indie pic Mud garnered Oscar chatter. He had a memorable cameo alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It ironically turned out that McConaughey’s scene partner in that film was his biggest competition for an Oscar. Dallas Buyers Club would see the Texan playing Ron Woodruff, a real life AIDS patient in the 1980s. McConaughey’s work was praised and he took home the gold statue. His luck streak continued into the following year starring in Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, which stands as his largest grossing live-action feature.

Since then? Well, let’s just say the McConaissance has been interrupted. Or borrowing his most famous catchphrase from 1993’s Dazed and Confused – it’s not Alright Alright.

This weekend, his stoner comedy The Beach Bum tanked at the box office. Its approximate $1.8 million opening is the worst release of the actor’s career. And it follows a pattern of now seven live-action duds (he did provide voice work in the animated pics Sing and Kubo and the Two Strings). And to give a modicum of credit, he did skip the subpar sequel Magic Mike XXL.

At least Nicolas Cage had a string of action hits after his Oscar before delving into VOD territory. McConaughey hasn’t been so fortunate and he quickly needs a critical or commercial success to redeem things. His list of recent material is an unsuccessful and largely forgettable one. In three years, we’ve had:

  • Free State of Jones, his summer 2016 Civil War drama that took in $20 million domestically against a $50 million budget. Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 46%.
  • The Sea of Trees from later that summer. The drama wasn’t even released wide and didn’t make a million dollars (13% RT score).
  • True life crime drama Gold in January 2017. 42% RT. $14 million gross stateside.
  • The Dark Tower in summer 2017. The critically maligned Stephen King adaptation had a 16% RT rating and immediately ended the possibility of a franchise with earnings of $50 million.
  • Another based on actual events crime drama from last fall – White Boy Rick. 58% RT and $24 million gross.
  • Noir thriller Serenity from earlier this year. Barely promoted, it made an embarrassing $8 million total with a 23% RT score.

And now The Beach Bum, which won’t reach $10 million domestically either. It’s time for McConaughey’s people to find him some better stuff. His most memorable appearances lately have been in car commercials. If they can’t manage to do so, there’s always 2013.

Serenity Box Office Prediction

Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway lend their star power to the thriller Serenity, out next weekend. The pic was originally slated for a fall 2018 release before its delay to January, which can often serve as a dumping ground for certain titles. Steven Knight directs with Diane Lane, Jason Clarke, Djimon Hounsou, and Jeremy Strong in the supporting cast.

The studio seems to be treating this as an afterthought. Marketing has been pretty slim. While McConaughey has had some hits since his Oscar win five years ago, there’s been some flops including Free State of Jones, Gold, and White Boy Rick. Hathaway has a better track record as of late, but I’m not convinced her participation will help matters.

Serenity has a $25 million budget, so at least its potential losses shouldn’t be too significant. Like the trio of previous McConaughey titles, I don’t have this hitting double digits.

Serenity opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Kid Who Would Be King prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/16/the-kid-who-would-be-king-box-office-prediction/

Ocean’s 8 Box Office Prediction

A franchise is reborn with a twist when Ocean’s 8 lands in theaters next weekend. It’s been over a decade since the Ocean’s 11-13 heist sagas with George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and a bunch of other famous faces being directed by Steven Soderbergh. Each entry made a little less at the box office as they went along, but they all opened between $35-$40 million. Soderbergh just produces here with Gary Ross taking over the directorial duties. He’s had hits such as Seabiscuit and The Hunger Games, but his most recent was the Matthew McConaughey flop Free State of Jones. 

The aforementioned twist is that it’s the ladies getting in on the thievery this time around. Sandra Bullock plays the sister of Clooney’s character from the first trilogy and she’s the mastermind of a crew that includes Cate Blanchett, Mindy Kaling, Sarah Paulson, Rihanna, Helena Bonham Carter, and Awkwafina. Anne Hathaway is the target of the score with James Corden, Dakota Fanning, and host of celebrity cameos included among the cast.

Ocean’s 8 looks to bring in a sizable female audience and their male counterparts may not mind coming along for the ride. The high-profile cast, especially Bullock, certainly doesn’t hurt and this stands a real shot at having the highest Ocean’s debut of all. That’s not guaranteed as I could see the low bar being in the low 30s. That would fall under the previous low of $36 million by Ocean’s Thirteen in 2007.

However, I’m leaning more towards a high 30s to possibly mid 40s roll out for Sandra and company. I’ll estimate it somewhere in between.

Ocean’s 8 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my Hereditary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hereditary-box-office-prediction/

For my Hotel Artemis prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hotel-artemis-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Sing and Kubo and the Two Strings

Much attention has been paid on this blog to the Best Actress race at the 2016 Oscars and deservedly so as it figures to be the most competitive it’s been in some time. Yet there’s another category that’ll be fun to watch. This year has been a banner one for animated features. In some years, it’s a bit of a challenge to think of five worthy of inclusion. In 2016, it’ll be fascinating to see what’s left out.

Two contenders have an odd thing in common: Matthew McConaughey. The 2013 Best Actor winner for Dallas Buyers Club has his voice featured in both Kubo and the Two Strings and Sing, which has screened in Toronto and will be out statewide in time for Christmas. Animated McConaughey has, in fact, had a much stronger year than the Lincoln Lawyer in human form. His summer Civil War drama Free State of Jones was a critical and commercial flop. Late last month, he starred in Gus Van Sant’s drama The Sea of Trees. It also received scorn from reviewers and has grossed a truly embarrassing $20,000 in its limited release. Perhaps this December’s Gold will turn things around for him.

Back to his cartoon version. Kubo opened last month to decent box office numbers (it’s made $40 million domestically thus far). Critics went wild for it though and its RT score stands at 97%. Though there’s other animated material that will gross far more than it, its inclusion for a nomination looks solid.

One of those movies that’ll probably far outgross it is Sing. The 3D computer animated musical comes from the company behind the Despicable Me franchise. In addition to McConaughey, it feature the voices of Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Seth MacFarlane, and John C. Reilly. Early reaction from Toronto is positive and suggests it’ll be a major holiday hit.

Yet its chances at an Animated Feature nod appear murkier due to the aforementioned heavy competition. Let’s briefly run the rest of the contenders down. There’s Disney’s spring juggernaut Zootopia. It’s in. There’s Disney’s Moana, their November offering from the team behind The Little Mermaid and Aladdin. Most prognosticators, including myself, are reserving a slot for it. The foreign title The Red Turtle opened to raves at Cannes. Japanese entry Miss Hokusai looks to be a factor. And there’s mega-hits like Finding Dory and The Secret Life of Pets to think about. Finally, how about Sausage Party?

All in all, this is one of the most exciting races to follow in 2016 and who knew the stoner guy from Dazed and Confused would be right in the thick of it?

http://youtu.be/Y7uGHY-t80I

http://youtu.be/p4-6qJzeb3A

 

 

Box Office Predictions: July 1-4

The Fourth of July weekend is here at the box office as three new titles make their debuts over the four day frame: Steven Spielberg’s The BFG, horror three-quel The Purge: Election Year, and adventure pic The Legend of Tarzan. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-bfg-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-purge-election-year-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-legend-of-tarzan-box-office-prediction/

While I have all three earning over $20 million over the long weekend, I don’t expect any of them will manage to top the third weekend of Finding Dory. My estimates reflect a belief that BFG will have a so-so opening, Purge a fairly healthy one albeit under its predecessors, and Tarzan a rather disastrous one.

As for Independence Day: Resurgence in its sophomore weekend, one might think it could hold up well due to… you know, it being Independence Day weekend. I’m not so sure. It had a very lackluster roll out (more on that below) and its weak B Cinemascore grade indicates a rough road ahead.

And with that, my top five predictions (including three and four day projections) for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Friday to Monday)

2. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.8 million (Friday to Monday)

5. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JUNE 24-26)

Finding Dory had no problem whatsoever swimming atop the charts as it grossed $72.9 million in weekend #2, just above my $69.8M projection. The Pixar smash has earned $286 million thus far.

20 years ago, Independence Day ruled the summer of 1996. Its long gestating sequel Resurgence? Not so much as it premiered to just $41 million, way below my $63.5M estimate. Here is yet another summer example of a sequel performing well below expectations and this one classifies as a bonafide bomb.

Central Intelligence held up well in its sophomore weekend with $18.2 million for third, ahead of my $15.2M prediction for a two week total of $69 million.

Blake Lively had a nice weekend as her shark tale The Shallows came in well above expectations at #4 with $16.8 million – lapping my $10.4M forecast. Considering its budget is just a reported $17 million, this is a nice size hit for Mrs. Deadpool.

The Conjuring 2 was fifth with $7.7 million for an $86 million tally. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because the news was not so good for Matthew McConaughey as his critically panned Civil War drama Free State of Jones stalled with $7.5 million in sixth, under my $12.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 24-26

Three new releases populate the final weekend in June as Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows all debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/independence-day-resurgence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/free-state-of-jones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/the-shallows-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get Free State and The Shallows out the way first, as I expect both to open in the low double digits and likely place fourth and fifth. I look for Central Intelligence to lose over half its opening audience, which should place it firmly in third.

The real battle could be for the top spot between current champ Finding Dory and Resurgence. I’m anticipating that Dory won’t quite drop 50%, which gives it the edge in my view.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $69.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $63.5 million

3. Central Intelligence

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Free State of Jones

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. The Shallows

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

Box Office Results (June 17-19)

The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t the only ones making history this weekend as Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had the largest animated debut in box office history with $135 million. This easily swam past my $127.3M prediction and topped the $121 million previous record held by Shrek the Third. The sequel to the 2003 classic provided a much needed boost to a summer that is lagging behind the previous one.

Central Intelligence, as expected, had a sturdy second place debut with $35.5 million, comparable to my $34.1M projection. The debut is in line with recent premieres for costar Kevin Hart and having Dwayne Johnson at his side didn’t hurt.

Holdovers in their sophomore frames held the three-five spots. All experienced precipitous  declines and all came in below my estimates. The Conjuring 2 was third with $14.8 million (I said $20.3M) for a $71 million total. Now You See Me 2 was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $12.5M) for a gross of $41 million. Warcraft was fifth with $7.2 million (I said $8.9M). It’s made $38 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Free State of Jones Box Office Prediction

In a season of sequels and family entertainment, STX Entertainment is hoping adults will turn out for the Civil War drama Free State of Jones, out next weekend. Focused on the real-life story of a Southerner staging a rebellion against the Confederacy, Jones comes from director Gary Ross, known for Pleasantville, Seabiscuit, and the first Hunger Games pic. Matthew McConaughey stars with Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Keri Russell, and Brendan Gleeson among the supporting cast.

Jones was originally set for release in March prior to its summer push back. The reported $65 million production isn’t your typical summer fare and it may have made more sense with a spring (or especially fall) release date. The studio may be depending on counter programming to lure older audiences into the theaters. Strong reviews could help, but I’m not confident this will break through in a major way.

Even with its well-regarded leading man and accomplished director, I believe Free State of Jones will likely debut in the lower double digits and hope for small declines in further weekends.

Free State of Jones opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million

For my Independence Day: Resurgence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/independence-day-resurgence-box-office-prediction/

For my The Shallows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/the-shallows-box-office-prediction/

16 for ’16: Oscar Contenders

The Academy Awards honoring the best of 2015 aired just over a week ago. So what does that mean? Well, it means that it’s time for incredibly early Oscar speculation on the films and performers that could factor into next year’s ceremony.

This evening on the blog, I take a look at 16 pictures that may find themslves in contention a year from now. Obviously, this is about as premature as it gets and there will be LOTS more speculation as the year rolls along. Yet here’s a first look at 16 for ’16 Oscar potentials:

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Release Date: November 11

Ang Lee has directed four Best Picture nominees over the past two decades and received two wins for his direction (Brokeback Mountain, Life of Pi). This Iraq War themed drama (based on a well received novel) featuring newcomer Joe Alwyn and familiar faces Garrett Hedlund, Kristen Stewart, Vin Diesel, Steve Martin, and Chris Tucker is highly likely to receive some chatter.

The Birth of a Nation

Release Date: October 7

Focusing on the true story of the slave rebellion led by Nat Turner, this passion project from Nate Parker (who stars and directs) received glowing reviews out of the Sundance Film Festival and picked up an Oscar friendly release date.

Collateral Beauty

Release Date: December 16

The Devil Wears Prada director David Frankel helms this comedic drama with an all-star cast that includes Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Edward Norton, and Jonah Hill.

Finding Dory

Release Date: June 17

Pixar has found itself in the Best Picture mix before with both 2009’s Up and 2010’s Toy Story 3. This sequel to 2003’s beloved Finding Nemo may follow suit and it should at the least be a major contender in Best Animated Feature.

Florence Foster Jenkins

Release Date: TBD

Put Meryl Streep in anything and she might be a possibility for an Actress nomination. So it is with Stephen Frears’ comedy/drama, which casts the 19 times nominated and 3 time winning Streep as the opera singing title character.

The Founder

Release Date: August 5

Michael Keaton has found himself featured in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). Could it be a three-peat with this biopic, which finds Keaton as McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc? John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directs with Laura Dern costarring.

Free State of Jones

Release Date: May 13

2013 Best Actor winner Matthew McConaughey headlines this Civil War drama from Seabiscuit and Hunger Games director Gary Ross.

The Girl on the Train

Release Date: October 7

The Help‘s Tate Taylor directs this psychological thriller that could provide an Oscar friendly role for star Emily Blunt.

La La Land

Release Date:December 16

Damien Chazelle follows up his 2014 Oscar nominee Whiplash with this comedic musical drama starring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and J.K. Simmons.

Nocturnal Animals

Release Date: TBD

Fashion designer Tom Ford follows up his acclaimed 2009 debut A Single Man with this drama featuring Jake Gyllenhaal, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Michael Shannon.

Richard Pryor: Is It Something I Said?

Release Date: TBD

Lee Daniels directs this biopic of the legendary comedian with Mike Epps in the starring role and Oprah Winfrey and Eddie Murphy among the supporting cast.

Silence

Release Date: TBD

Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson headline this historical drama from Martin Scorsese, who has seen five out his last six movies nominated for the big prize.

Sully

Release Date: September 9

Clint Eastwood follows up his 2014 nominee American Sniper with the true life tale of the title character pilot who pulled off the “Miracle on the Hudson” (which I like better as a title, by the way). Tom Hanks is Sully with Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney backing him up.

A United Kingdom

Release Date: TBD

The period piece interracial romance features two stars who could be ripe for recognition – David Oyelowo and Rosamund Pike.

War Machine

Release Date: TBD

Release Date: This Afghanistan war comedy is likely to garner more attention than the last one, Tina Fey’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. Based on a bestselling novel, it stars Brad Pitt, Ben Kingsley, and Topher Grace.

The Zookeeper’s Wife

Release Date: TBD

This Holocaust themed drama (based on a bestseller) could be a factor in Picture and in Actress for Jessica Chastain’s lead role.

silencelalaland