Tag: Domhnall Gleeson

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction

It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).

Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.

We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.

For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.

So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.

We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.

None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.

Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.

Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.

What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million

For my Sisters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

For my Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

Ex Machina Movie Review

Alex Garland’s Ex Machina shares similar themes of romance with an artificial intelligence being to that of Spike Jonze’s Her. Oh, but the tone is quite different. This low budget sci-fi feature announces a director with a visual style not unlike Kubrick and one suspects we’ll be seeing lots more from Garland in the future. We’ve seen similar material before, but never presented in the manner it is here and that makes Ex Machina an exciting experience.

The pic gets right into the plot as computer programmer Caleb (Domhnall Gleeson) is selected by his boss Nathan (Oscar Isaac) to travel to his gorgeous remote estate. Nathan is the founder and CEO of Bluebook, the largest search engine site in the world. Caleb is unsure of why he’s given this assignment but soon finds out that is to judge whether Nathan’s AI design Ava (Alicia Vikander) passes the Turing test. In other words, Caleb is to determine whether Ava passes for a human.

We witness their interaction through a series of sessions, with the eccentric, alcoholic, and probably dangerous Nathan monitoring their every moment of conversation. Almost. Intermittent periods of power blackouts allow Caleb and Ava to speak more frankly and Caleb soon discovers than Nathan’s intentions could be more sinister than he’s leading his employee to believe. As their sessions grow, Caleb develops an attraction for Ava and she becomes more and more human to him. She reciprocates his feelings.

The themes of the human race dealing with artificial intelligence in a sexual way are, once again, becoming a more common theme in cinema. Where Ex Machina succeeds is generating considerable tension in the dynamic between its two test subjects (there’s never much doubt Caleb is being tested too) and Nathan. Some of the movie’s most significant developments occur in the blackout periods generated by lost power and by Nathan’s love of hard liquor. We are constantly second guessing Nathan’s motives and soon begin to question Ava’s.

Isaac is given the juicy role here and he delivers another terrific performance once again. Gleeson is the straight man who convincingly plays the truly strange new world he’s found himself in. Yet Ex Machina hinges on the work of Vikander, who excels at creating this manufactured woman who quickly tugs at Caleb’s emotions.

There is no doubt that Garland is a real talent and he delivers a tight and often claustrophobic universe to let his three main players interact in (the only other major supporting player is Sonoyo Mizuno as Nathan’s non English speaking housemaid). With each subsequent session, the suspense escalates and we’re never quite sure where it’s all leading up to. When it does, the ending feels a tad predictable but also feels appropriate. This is not the sci-fi experience we’ve grown used to with an over reliance of effects. They’re here, but Ex Machina earns its worthiness from a director who confidently knows how to tell this story.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Brooklyn

When John Crowley’s period piece immigration drama Brooklyn premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year, it quickly vaulted itself into the world of Oscar buzz. This holds especially true for its star Saoirse Ronan, who plays a 1950s Irish woman who travels to that titled burrow and finds romance with an Italian (Emory Cohen, whose performance is also receiving kudos). Domnhall Gleeson and Jim Broadbent are among the costars but it’s the other female cast member, Julie Walters, who’s also meriting Academy nod talk in the Supporting Actress race.

If Ronan were to find herself in the Actress mix, it would be her first recognition in that category, though she did pick up a Supporting Actress nomination for 2007’s Atonement. The pic appears to be somewhat similar in plot to Jim Sheridan’s 2003 acclaimed In America, which received nods for Screenplay, Actress (Samantha Morton) and Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou).

Early reviews are glowing (it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and Brooklyn appears likely at this juncture to be a player in the Best Picture derby with Ronan seeming like a lock. The film premieres stateside on November 6.

Ex Machina Box Office Prediction

A legitimate wild card this weekend at the box office could be Ex Machina, a British science fiction tale that’s been on the receiving end of positive reviews and impressive per screen averages in limited release. It opens nationwide Friday, though I’ve yet to see a screen count which makes a prediction a little more complicated. Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac are among the cast in the directorial debut of Alex Garland, writer of 28 Days Later and Dredd.

The critically acclaimed feature (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes) made nearly $800,000 on just 39 screens last weekend for a sparkling $20k per screen average. That could bode well for filmgoers looking for a more serious sci fi offering before the summer onslaught begins with Avengers next weekend.

Again, without a screen count, it’s a tricky projection but I’ll estimate Ex Machina finds its way into the top five.

Ex Machina opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

Unbroken Box Office Prediction

At one time, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken was looked at as a potential juggernaut for Oscar season. Based on the 2010 Laura Hillenbrand bestseller focused on the life of Olympic medalist Louis Zamperini during World War II, the picture seemed tailor made for awards attention. Reviews have changed that dynamic drastically. It sits at only 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and has been subject to numerous negative reviews.

Unbroken still has a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination, though a win is out of the question. This will likely alter its box office take when it opens Christmas Day. Starring Jack O’Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, and Miyavi, the film should still be poised for relatively respectable results out of the gate.

The source material is well-known and it could fit the bill for adult moviegoers looking for something this holiday weekend (Into the Woods should do that too). Its performance should actually be quite similar to Woods premiere out of the gate.

Unbroken opening weekend prediction:

$20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Into the Woods prediction, click here: https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here: https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Imitation Game, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/the-imitation-game-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Big Eyes, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Unbroken

In the 2014 Oscar race, one major question has been out there for several months: where will Unbroken fit in? It’s based on a huge bestseller by Lauren Hillenbrand. It’s directed by Angelina Jolie. The screenplay was written by Joel and Ethan Coen. The true story of Olympic track star Louis Zamperini, who was stranded in the Pacific and then held captive at Japanese POW camps during World War II, seems right up Oscar’s alley. Conventional wisdom is that if Unbroken was a critical darling, it would be a force to be reckoned with during awards season.

Today marked the day when reviews trickled out. The verdict? Mixed. Very mixed. It currently sits at just 50% on Rotten Tomatoes (a number that will probably rise). Industry Bible Variety wasn’t impressed. Add that up and I’ll make a declarative statement I couldn’t make until now:

Unbroken is not going to win Best Picture.

Whether it gets nominated is another story. It could still be a big hit at the box office, which wouldn’t hurt. And its source material is well-regarded which could sway voters to at least include it among the eight to ten likely Best Picture nominees. It’s no guarantee anymore, but I’ll still predict Unbroken manages a nod.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion in the Director race is now very questionable. She would appear behind Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Ava DuVernay (Selma), and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), as well as other potentials like Christopher Nolan (Interstellar), David Fincher (Gone Girl), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and Rob Marshall (Into the Woods). She could still sneak in, but it won’t be as easy as once thought.

The Best Actor race is seen as four-way competition between Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything), and David Oyelowo (Selma). Jack O’Connell, who plays Zamperini, is receiving positive notices and could nab the fifth slot, but his serious competition includes Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year), Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), and Bradley Cooper (American Sniper).

I have included Japanese singer Miyavi in my Supporting Actor predictions over the past couple of months. He plays the role of a sadistic Japanese army sergeant and I still believe he stands the best shot at a nomination (reviews have singled him out).

Luckily for Unbroken, the Best Adapted Screenplay race is pretty weak this year and it could still earn recognition for the Coen Brothers screenplay.

However, beyond its seemingly now non-existent chances of a Picture win, Unbroken is unlikely to win any of the categories mentioned above. What a difference a day makes.