August 12-14 Box Office Predictions

There’s a trio of pics debuting or expanding this weekend, but they could all find themselves outside of the top five. A24’s slasher comedy Bodies Bodies Bodies hopes to build on its impressive NY/LA limited release while the Diane Keaton comedy Mack & Rita and survival thriller Fall premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Bodies Bodies Bodies Box Office Prediction

Mack & Rita Box Office Prediction

Fall Box Office Prediction

Both Bodies and Fall are expected to hit around 1200 screens. That’s low and limits their range. Let’s start with Fall as its lack of promotion could find it failing to even make $1 million. I’m projecting $872,000 and that obviously leaves it well outside the high five (and ten for that matter).

Bodies is a bit tougher to figure out. In six venues in our nation’s two largest cities, it took in a robust per screen average of nearly $40k. Yet as I mentioned in my individual post, I’m skeptical that this plays well in the middle of the country. My $4.4 million estimate also leaves it on the outside looking in.

Mack & Rita also seems to be suffering from lack of awareness. I’m only going with $2.6 million as this should come and go in multiplexes quickly.

With the newcomers out of the way, that leaves holdovers to talk about. Sony’s Bullet Train with Brad Pitt opened right on track with reasonable expectations (more on that below) and it should have no trouble remaining in the top spot again. With minimal competition, it could slide in the mid 40s in the best case scenario. That said, if you look at action titles of early August past, a drop in the low 50s to mid 50s seems just as likely. DC League of Super-Pets should stay in second… with a caveat.

If Top Gun: Maverick continues percentage drops in the teens (and there’s no reason to think it won’t), it should re-enter the top 5. Nope could drop out altogether with Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru battling it out for the 4 spot alongside Bodies Bodies Bodies. There’s even a chance Maverick could go from #6 to #2.

Here’s how I see the charts playing out and I’ll expand it to a top ten this time around:

1. Bullet Train

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

2. DC League of Super-Pets

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

3. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Thor: Love and Thunder

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. Bodies Bodies Bodies

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

7. Nope

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

8. Where the Crawdads Sing

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

9. Mack & Rita

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

10. Easter Sunday

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (August 5-7)

Bullet Train came in right where I thought it would with $30 million (my call  was $29.7 million). While it certainly didn’t exceed expectations, it’s a perfectly decent opening and its overseas grosses are solid. The B+ Cinemascore indicates a somewhat fair-weather reaction so it’s worth monitoring how it holds up. As mentioned, the lack of competition should help.

DC League of Super-Pets had a stiffer sophomore fall than I anticipated with $11 million compared to my $13.6 million take. The two-week total is a muted $44 million.

Nope saw a drop of over 50% once again with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.1 million prediction. The three-week tally is approaching nine digits at $97 million.

Thor: Love and Thunder was fourth at $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million) as the MCU sequel became the highest pic in the franchise by eclipsing 2017’s Ragnarok. Total is $316 million.

Minions: The Rise of Gru rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I went with $6.9 million) for a $334 million haul.

Finally, the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday struggled in its start in 8th place with $5.4 million, just under my $5.6 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Mack & Rita Box Office Prediction

Diane Keaton headlines the comedy Mack & Rita as the Gravitas Venture title hopes to bring in a female crowd in these late summer box office dog days. Out August 12th, costar Elizabeth Lail is magically transformed into her older self who is played by the legendary Oscar winner. Katie Aselton, who appeared in Keaton’s 2018 hit Book Club, directs and the supporting cast includes Taylour Paige, Simon Rex, Loretta Devine, and Wendie Malick.

The studio would love a Book Club size gross. It delivered just shy of $70 million and a sequel is coming in May 2023. That appears highly unlikely as Rita seems to be flying well under the radar. I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection. I suspect this will be lucky to earn what Keaton’s 2019 dud Poms accomplished which was $5.4 million out of the gate. This may earn about half of that figure.

Mack & Rita opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million

For my Bodies Bodies Bodies prediction, click here:

Bodies Bodies Bodies Box Office Prediction

For my Fall prediction, click here:

Fall Box Office Prediction

Poms Box Office Prediction

STX Entertainment is hoping an older female audience will turn out next weekend to cheer on Poms. The comedy is headlined by Diane Keaton as a recent retirement community resident who starts a cheerleading squad. Costars include Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Rhea Perlman, Celia Watson, Alisha Boe, and Bruce McGill. Zara Hayes directs.

The film is hopeful to become a counter programming option amidst lots of expensive summer blockbusters. However, competition for a female audience is there as The Hustle opens against it and Long Shot will be in its second weekend. By skewing a bit older with its target audience, Poms is looking to tap into Book Club money.

That movie opened last May to $13.5 million on roughly the same number of screens that this is. It legged out nicely to $68 million. I don’t have Poms jumping that high and I’m forecasting high single digits to low double digits as it hopes for small drops in the weekends ahead.

Poms opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Pokemon Detective Pikachu prediction, click here:

For my The Hustle prediction, click here:

For my Tolkien prediction, click here:

Book Club Box Office Prediction

Paramount is hoping to bring in an older female audience next Friday with the release of Book Club. The comedy casts the quartet of Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, and Mary Steenburgen as members of a reading group who become influenced by their latest selection, Fifty Shades of Grey. The pic marks the directorial debut of Bill Holderman and costars include Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, Richard Dreyfuss, Craig T. Nelson, and Alicia Silverstone.

As mentioned, this Club hopes to capitalize on an often underserved market. Yet there is at least one other title appealing to females as Life of the Party will be in its sophomore frame and possibly still in lower double digits.

I’ll estimate this manages high single digits to low double digits itself out of the gate as it’ll likely hope for smallish declines in subsequent frames.

Book Club opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Deadpool 2 prediction, click here:

For my Show Dogs prediction, click here:

For my Pope Francis: A Man of His Word prediction, click here:

Finding Dory Box Office Prediction

Thirteen years after the original made a major splash at the box office, Finding Dory hits theaters next weekend and looks to reinvigorate a somewhat slumping marketplace. The Disney/Pixar release is, of course, the sequel to 2003’s now classic Finding Nemo. Director Andrew Stanton is back, as are the voices of Ellen DeGeneres and Albert Brooks. Plenty of other familiar faces make their voices heard here – Diane Keaton, Bill Hader, Idris Elba, Eugene Levy, Kate McKinnon, Ty Burrell, Ed O’Neill, and Dominic West among them.

The summer of 2016 has seen a host of sequels not matching up to their originals. Some of them have been family programming, like Alice Through the Looking Glass and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.

It is highly likely that Dory will not suffer the same fate. In fact, the real question seems to be whether or not this will score Pixar’s largest opening weekend in its now 21 year history. That honor currently belongs to another sequel, 2010’s Toy Story 3, which debuted with $110.3 million. Dory is currently said to be tracking a bit above that. I believe it will surpass that number, but probably not by much (though with the sequelitis occurring recently, I do feel a touch of nervousness with this prediction). Still, if anything can break through – it’s this.

In order for it to score the second biggest animated premiere in history, it’d need to top the $115.7 million earned by last summer’s Minions. To get to #1, Dory would have to swim past the $121.6 million gross of Shrek the Third from 2007. It’s possible that it could achieve either one of those records.

I’ll predict Dory falls below Shrek and just above Minions to earn the #2 animated debut stateside and also set the Pixar record. That would go a long ways toward washing the bad taste out of the Mouse Factory’s mouths for Looking Glass and last fall’s The Good Dinosaur, which was the first Pixar title to lose money.

Finding Dory opening weekend prediction: $117.3 million

For my Central Intelligence prediction, click here:

Love the Coopers Box Office Prediction

The Christmas season hits the box office in mid November as the holiday themed  Love the Coopers opens next Friday. With an all-star cast including John Goodman, Diane Keaton, Marisa Tomei, Olivia Wilde, Ed Helms, Anthony Mackie, June Squibb, Amanda Seyfried, and Alan Arkin, the family affair will look to cash in with audiences looking for some Xmas cheer.

Its prospects are a bit sketchy. Trailers and TV spots for Coopers have done little to make it look like another run of the mill big ensemble experience. Its best hope is to bring in a female audience looking for a diversion from James Bond, which should still be performing like gang busters in weekend #2.

That might be enough to help it reach double digits, though I don’t believe that’s guaranteed. I could actually see this debuting in line with The Family Stone, a similarly themed comedy which opened 10 years ago. Solid word of mouth could push it to perform in subsequent weekends yet that remains to be seen.

Love the Coopers opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million

For my The 33 prediction, click here:

For my My All-American prediction, click here:

And So It Goes Box Office Prediction

Director Rob Reiner attempts a summer movie season counterprogramming move with And So It Goes, opening Friday. The romantic comedy stars Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton and the pic will try to bring in an adult audience burnt out on would-be blockbusters populating the marketplace.

I’m not so sure it’ll succeed. Early reviews have been mixed and the advertising campaign has been low-key. And So It Goes would love to bring in the numbers of Hope Springs with Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones, which opened two summers ago to a $14 million opening weekend gross. I don’t believe this will reach those heights. Premiering on a relatively low 1800 screens, I’m forecasting that this won’t quite reach double digits and should be available for home viewing in the near future.

And So It Goes opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million

For my Lucy prediction, click here:

For my Hercules prediction, click here:

This Day in Movie History: January 5

Director Alfonso Cuaron may be getting all sorts of deserved attention for his visual mastery in Gravity, but it was seven years ago today in Movie History that his previous feature Children of Men opened wide domestically. In many ways, Children of Men is just as much a visionary achievement for the director. Starring Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Michael Caine, and current Best Actor frontrunner Chiwetel Ejiofer, this futuristic thriller was easily one of the best films of 2006. While it was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Production Design, it was robbed of a Best Picture nomination. Men only managed a just OK $35 million at the box office, but Cuaron would more than make up for it in 2013 with his Sandra Bullock space picture.

As for birthdays, Robert Duvall is 83. One of the finest actors in his generation, Duvall’s resume includes To Kill a Mockingbird, the original True Grit, the first two Godfather films, MASH, The Conversation, Network, Tender Mercies, The Natural, Colors, “Lonesome Dove”, Days of Thunder, A Civil Action, Get Low, and many more. He’s been nominated six times for an Oscar and won in 1983 for his role in Tender Mercies.

Diane Keaton is 68 today. Like Duvall, she too appeared in Coppola’s Godfather films (all three, unlike her costar). She’s also known for her collaborations with Woody Allen which brought her an Oscar in 1977 for Annie Hall. Other notable films with Woody: Sleeper, Love and Death, Manhattan, and Manhattan Murder Mystery. Further high-profile pictures featuring Ms. Keaton: Looking for Mr. Goodbar, Reds, Baby Boom, Father of the Bride and its sequel, The First Wives Club, Marvin’s Room, and Something’s Gotta Give. She’s been nominated three other times for an Oscar other than her winning role for Hall.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the birthday performers – well pretty simple. Duvall and Keaton starred together in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II.

And that’s today – January 5 – in Movie History!