Blogger’s Note (07/31): My estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million
Two of the most popular characters from the venerable FastandFurious franchise get their own spin-off (the first of the long running series) with Hobbs&Shaw next weekend. The action extravaganza comes with a reported $200 million budget and is headlined by the title characters respectively portrayed by Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham. David Leitch (co-director of JohnWick and sole director of AtomicBlonde and Deadpool2) is behind the camera. Costars include Idris Elba, Vanessa Kirby, and Helen Mirren (reprising her maternal role from 2017’s last entry TheFateoftheFurious).
Despite the absence of Vin Diesel and other actors associated with the franchise that started 18 years ago, Hobbs&Shaw is likely to perform similarly to other pics in the canon. The largest opening was accomplished in 2015 with Furious7 with a gross of $147 million. Tragically, part of the reason its start was significantly more than the others was due to the untimely death of Paul Walker and that picture representing his swan song. Follow-up FateoftheFurious two years later landed the second highest start of the eight features at $98 million.
This might fall a bit under those gaudy numbers and I think low to mid 80s is most feasible. That would put it in line or a just bit below the $86 million accomplished by FastFive in 2011.
Hobbs&Shaw opening weekend prediction: $72.6 million
He’s been an Oscar nominee for Milk, the star of Best Picture winner NoCountryforOldMen, a Man in Black for the third entry of that franchise, and (of course) the big brother in TheGoonies. And in 2018, Josh Brolin was unquestionably the king of the summer sequel, setting up roles that will continue for some time.
It all started with the summer season’s biggest blockbuster – Avengers: InfinityWar. As villainous Thanos, Brolin pretty much stole the show against the entire Marvel Cinematic Universe. A few weeks later, the actor starred alongside Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool2, which stands as the year’s fifth top earner. Sicario: DayoftheSoldado followed shortly after that with Brolin reprising his role as a CIA agent barking orders to Benicio del Toro. That follow-up managed to top the gross of its 2015 predecessor.
We can expect to see him in all three of these parts again. In summer 2019, Thanos will be back in Avengers: Endgame. He’s signed a four picture deal to be Cable in that cinematic universe. A third Sicario feature is planned.
In a career that kicked off over three decades ago alongside One-Eyed Willy and Sloth, Brolin established a trio of characters that we’ll likely see onscreen for the foreseeable future.
A day late, but my weekly Oscar predictions are up for your review! Enjoy…
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Vice (PR: 7)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
10. First Man (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
13. First Reformed (PR: 12)
14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Widows
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 10)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
3. Sam Ellliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. First Man (PR: 5)
8. Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
10. Widows (PR: 7)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Vice (PR: 4)
5. First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
8. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Private Life (PR: 7)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 6)
5. Capernaum (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
7. Girl (PR: 5)
8. Border (PR: 8)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Early Man (PR: 8)
8. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. RBG (PR: 4)
4. Free Solo (PR: 3)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Shirkers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 8)
10. Science Fair (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Green Book (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 5)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
10. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Widows
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Vice (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Widows
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Crazy Rich Asians(PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 3)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Roma (PR: 5)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
7. Colette (PR: 6)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool 2
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 5)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
8. Aquaman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
10. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)
7. Black Panther (PR: 9)
8. Isle of Dogs (PR: 6)
9. Colette (PR: 7)
10. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Widows
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
5. “Girl at the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
And that equates to the following films getting these numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, First Man
7 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman
4 Nominations
Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG
1 Nomination
The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Burning, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, RBG, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. First Reformed (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
7. Private Life (PR: 8)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 4)
5. Girl (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 5)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Border (PR: 7)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guilty
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
8. Early Man (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tito and the Birds
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 8)
8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
9. Science Fair (PR: 10)
10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amazing Grace
Best Film Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Black Panther (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 8)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
9. Green Book (PR: 7)
10. Widows (PR: 6)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 2)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Roma
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)
8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)
10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Gravity” from Free Solo
And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite, First Man
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Vice
4 Nominations
Green Book
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG
1 Nomination
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.
It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.
One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.
Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Wild Card – The Mule
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Alternate – Eighth Grade
Wild Card – Private Life
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress (Drama)
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Nick Robinson, Love, Simon
Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate – Smallfoot
Wild Card – The Grinch
Best Foreign Language Film
Cold War
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – Capernaum
Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch
Best Screenplay
A Star Is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – Green Book
Wild Card – First Reformed
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate – Widows
Wild Card – Suspiria
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
6 Nominations
The Favourite
5 Nominations
A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice
3 Nominations
Green Book
2 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians
1 Nomination
Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots
I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!
My extremely early Oscar predictions for 2018 bring us to something brand new and quite controversial. Yes, I’m talking the category that we will see for the first time at next year’s ceremony: Best Popular Film.
The announcement last month by the Academy of this new race was met with a whole lotta criticism. And even if you weren’t one of the voices on the negative side, the category has caused understandable confusion.
We still don’t know the criteria for a nomination here. Over $100 million at the box office? How wide was its release?
The Academy did clear up one big question. Movies nominated in this category can also be featured in the Best Picture race. It’s a legitimate question as to whether or not that will happen. For instance, AStarIsBorn could be primed for the big race. Yet it seems likely to cross the century mark. How about Incredibles2? It’s a shoo-in for a nod in Best Animated Feature, so will voters acknowledge it in both categories? For now, I’m saying no. Many prognosticators believe this could be the Academy’s way of honoring BlackPanther. We shall see.
Bottom line… plenty of uncertainty here, but here’s my first take on the first year of Best Popular Film.
Best Director and then Picture are up next! If you missed my estimates for the four acting races, you can find them here:
The basketball themed comedy Uncle Drew and crime thriller sequel Sicario: Day of the Soldado debut in theaters this weekend and they could battle it out for the third spot behind returning blockbusters Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newbies right here:
Of the two newcomers, I am giving Drew the slight edge over Sicario. I also believe that if one of them over performs my estimate, it will be the former. My low to mid teens projections on both means Jurassic and Incredibles should easily maintain their 1-2 slots on the charts.
Kingdom came in on the higher end of expectations this weekend (more on that below) and now we move to how far it will drop. Its predecessor dipped just 49% in its sophomore frame after its (at the time) record-breaking $208 million opening. Kingdom should fall farther and I foresee a mid-high 50s decline.
The percentage drop for Incredibles 2 was more pronounced than I projected in weekend #2 and that should subside a bit this weekend (I’ll say 46%).
The women of Ocean’s 8 should round out the top five. And with that, those 5 estimates for the frame ahead:
1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $62.1 million
2. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $42.8 million
3. Uncle Drew
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
4. Sicario: Day of the Soldado
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
5. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (June 22-24)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom easily ruled the box office grossing $148 million out of the gate. I was a bit lower at $140.4 million. The dino sequel, as mentioned, performed on the higher end of expectations while earning $60 million less for its start than Jurassic World in 2015. Its debut gives it the fourth largest in 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Incredibles 2.
Speaking of Incredibles 2, it fell to second with $80.3 million and didn’t reach my forecast of $94.9 million. Its two-week total sits at an incredible $349 million.
Ocean’s8 held up nicely in third with $11.5 million to bring its tally to a cool $100 million. I was a tad lower at $9.8 million.
Tag was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $7.7 million) for $30 million in two weeks.
Deadpool 2 took the five-spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to hit the triple century mark at $304 million.
Solo: A Star Wars Story was sixth at $4.5 million (I said $5.4 million) for $202 million overall.
There’s only one new wide release this weekend, but it’s a big one as Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stomps into multiplexes. The sequel to the 2015 record breaker hopes to hold onto a large chunk of its predecessor’s audience. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Jurassic World took in an astonishing $208 million three summers ago (which set the opening weekend record until Star Wars: The Force Awakens snatched it away six months later). Kingdom is not expected to match that performance. My estimate has decreased from an initial prediction of just over $155 million last week to just over $140 million.
Incredibles 2 broke its own records this past weekend by smashing the all-time animated feature debut (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, the sequel to the 2004 Pixar superhero tale has turned into quite the event film. How much it dips in weekend #2 is an intriguing question. Looking at past sequels from the studio, 2010’s Toy Story 3 and 2016’s Finding Dory (the previous animated record holder) both fell 46%. Last summer’s Cars 3, which was a rare Pixar disappointment, fell a steeper 55%. It’s a legit question as to how front loaded Incredibles 2 is and whether it had a must-see factor in weekend #1. That said, repeat business could be strong even with the considerable dino competition. I’ll project a 48% drop, similar to 2017’s Beauty and the Beast.
Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will surely dominate the charts this weekend as Ocean’s 8 and Tag should be third and fourth, respectively. The five-spot could be a battle between Solo and Deadpool 2 and I’ll give Han a slight edge. And with that, my top 6 predictions for the frame ahead:
1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $140.4 million
2. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $94.9 million
3. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Tag
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (June 15-17)
As mentioned, Incredibles 2 was indeed incredible this weekend as it obliterated the all-time animated feature record. The well-reviewed sequel took in $182.6 million, smashing the numbers of Finding Dory by nearly $50 million. That figure is good for the 8th largest domestic debut in history and that ranks third for 2018 (behind Marvel behemoths Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther). It, um, did a little better than my $138.1 million forecast… oops.
Ocean’s 8 was second in its sophomore outing with $18.9 million, coming in below my $21.2 million estimate. The heist caper has made $78 million thus far.
Newcomer comedy Tag was third with $14.9 million, faring slightly better than my $13.4 million projection. The Warner Bros pic performed right in line with expectations.
Solo: A Star Wars Story placed fourth with $10 million (above my $8.4 million prediction) for $193 million total.
Deadpool 2 rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) for $294 million overall.
Superfly debuted in sixth with $6.8 million and $9 million since its Wednesday roll out, managing to outpace my respective calls of $5.3 million and $7.2 million. I’d look for the crime remake to fade quickly.
Hereditary was seventh and it held up well for a horror release with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million) to bring its two-week earnings to $27 million.
Pixar should easily rule the weekend and it may do so in record-breaking fashion as Incredibles 2 debuts. We also have the openings of comedy Tag and action remake Superfly. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the three of them here:
The computer animated superhero sequel arrives nearly 14 years ago after The Incredibles, but anticipation appears sky-high as part 2 looks to set a personal best for the massively successful studio. In order to accomplish that, Incredibles 2 would need to outdo the $135 million achieved out of the gate by Finding Dory two summers ago. My estimate gets it there by just over $3 million.
Tag could potentially serve as decent counter programming, but I’m not quite sold that it breaks out in a significant way. My lower teens projection places it firmly in third behind the sophomore weekend of Ocean’s 8 (which I see losing close to half its audience in weekend #2).
The 4-7 slots could be interesting to watch. One question mark is how Hereditary performs. The horror pic was a hit with critics and easily set an opening weekend record for studio A24. However, its Cinemascore audience grade was a dismal D+. That could mean a hefty sophomore decline. On the other hand, A24’s The Witch was saddled with a C- Cinemascore score and dropped just 42% in its second outing. I have Hereditary dropping over 50% and that should put it in 6th and that would be ahead of Superfly (as my prediction for it has steadily declined since my original post last week). As a reminder, Superfly debuts on Wednesday. That means the 4-5 spots should belong to Solo and Deadpool 2 (and it could be a dead heat between them).
And with that, let’s make it a top 7 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $138.1 million
2. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. Tag
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
6. Hereditary
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. Superfly
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (June 8-10)
Ocean’s 8 got off to a healthy start and came in right in line with most expectations. The female led heist caper achieved the best debut of the franchise with $41.6 million. I was close with $42.6 million.
Solo: A Star Wars Story dropped to second with $15.7 million compared to my $14.3 million estimate. The three-week total is $176 million.
Deadpool 2 was third with $14.1 million (I said $13.2 million) to bring its four-week tally to $279 million.
Hereditary opened on the higher end of expectations in fourth with $13.5 million, topping my $10.2 million estimate. As mentioned, its negative audience reaction could serve as a hindrance for long-term viability.
Avengers: Infinity War rounded out the top 5 with $7.2 million (I said $6.7 million). The Marvel juggernaut is up to $655 million.
Adrift was sixth with $5.2 million and I was a touch higher at $6.1 million. The Shailene Woodley sailing drama has made $21 million in two weeks.
Finally, Hotel Artemis failed to generate many check-ins, opening in 8th place with $3.2 million (below my take of $5 million).
A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.
The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2.
Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.
As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Hereditary
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
5. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. Adrift
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 1-3)
All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.
Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.
Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).
Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.
Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.
Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.
Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:
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