Disney hopes to bring audiences in next weekend with the true life disaster pic The Finest Hours, but I have a feeling that choppy waters could be ahead. The 1950s set tale of a Coast Guard rescue mission comes with a reported $80 million budget and stars Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Ben Foster, and Eric Bana. Craig Gillespie, who last worked with the Mouse Factory on the commercially disappointing Million Dollar Arm, is behind the camera.
The studio probably hopes that Hours can appeal to adult viewers looking for an old fasioned adventure film, but trailers and TV spots haven’t been too impressive. Early reviews have been pretty underwhelming to boot. I believe this may struggle to even reach double digits, but I’ll predict it clocks in just past that for a letdown of a debut.
The Finest Hours opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
2011’s Horrible Bosses was a better than average raunchy comedy that will most be remembered for showing a whole new side to Jennifer Aniston, which assisted in achieving some shock value. It helped that it was headlined by three highly talented comedic leads – Jason’s Bateman and Sudeikis and Charlie Day. When it turned into a surprise blockbuster with a $117 million domestic gross, the bosses at Warner Bros decided we needed a sequel.
We didn’t.
Horrible Bosses 2 contains only hints of what the original a reasonable success. The sequel pines to remind us of what we dug about its predecessor. Kevin Spacey and Jamie Foxx reprise their roles but their parts aren’t as humorous as the first go round. Aniston is back, but that aforementioned shock value is long gone. The three leads have an undeniable chemistry which again isn’t as strong as when they were dealing with their original nefarious employers.
It’s actually Chris Pine who turns in the most unexpectedly winning performance. Captain Kirk hasn’t had much opportunity to show his comedy skills and he has them. He plays the spoiled son of a rich investor (a totally wasted Christoph Waltz) who bilks our trio out of their new business venture called The Shower Buddy (not really worth explaining). He is really the only new and worthy addition to the proceedings. The rest is primarily stale sex jokes. Lots of them.
The contrived plot (you can bet a sequel for this was never planned) involves the leads setting up a scheme to kidnap Pine. Their plans necessitate conspiring with their old foes Spacey and Foxx and Aniston because star power is key. Yet those three contributed a lot to the 2011 pic and the same cannot be said now.
Even a less than desirable follow up is bound to have laugh inducing moments with this cast. The ratio isn’t horrible, but it’s not impressive either.
Walt Disney’s Christmas gift to moviegoers is Into the Woods, the adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Broadway smash musical fantasy. From Oscar winning Chicago director Rob Marshall, Woods features an all-star cast that includes Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt, Chris Pine, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden.
Woods has been well publicized and should be primed to connect with audiences over the holiday break. Reviews have been mostly strong and it sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar buzz, particularly for Streep in the Supporting Actress race. It’s debuting on approximately 2200 screens which isn’t near the 3000 plus that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken is scheduled for, so that could slightly hinder its potential out of the gate.
Nevertheless with its strong brand name, Disney marketing, and recognizable stars, Woods should get off to a solid start with Christmas ticket buyers.
Into the Woods box office prediction: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
The Turkey Day box office frame showcases a sequel to a well regarded comedy that came out three and a half years ago as Horrible Bosses 2 opens Wednesday. Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, and Charlie Day are back along with returnees Jennifer Aniston, Jamie Foxx, and Kevin Spacey. Newbies Christoph Waltz and Chris Pine join the fray as well.
In the summer of 2011, the original Bosses debuted to a robust $28 million on its way to a $117M domestic take. Those grosses were strong enough to warrant this sequel. Reviews have not been on its side as it currently holds a tepid 11% on Rotten Tomatoes (compared to its predecessor’s 69% rating). However, its opening weekend should be somewhat critic proof before lackluster word of mouth could cause large drop-offs in future weekends. After all, bad reviews didn’t hurt Dumb and Dumber To one bit.
I’ll predict Horrible Bosses 2 opens with just about what the first did for its Friday to Sunday frame while inching close to $40M for the five-day frame.
Horrible Bosses 2 opening weekend prediction: $28.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $38.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Penguins of Madagascar prediction, click here:
Looking over the landscape of movies over the past decade, it’s almost as if someone got Batman, Superman, Spiderman, The Incredible Hulk, James Bond, Jason Bourne, and others in a room together circa rougly 2004. And in their best Oprah voice, they exclaimed “YOU get a reboot! YOU get a reboot! YOU get a reboot! EVERYONE GETS A REBOOT!!!”
And so it continues with the character of Jack Ryan which casts Chris Pine (the rebooted Captain Kirk himself) as the fourth actor to play the role after Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck (soon to be rebooted Batman). Based on the works of Tom Clancy, this franchise got rolling in 1990 with The Hunt for Red October (Baldwin), continued with Ford in 1992’s Patriot Games and 1994’s Clear and Present Danger, and then onto 2003’s The Sum of All Fears with Affleck.
Like Sum of All Fears, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit is yet another origin story of the character and how he got involved in the CIA in the first place. Affleck’s origin story worked in part due to its arrival less than two years after the events of September 11. The terrorist attack scenes involving Baltimore hit close to home after the tragic real-life events in New York City, Washington D.C., and rural Pennsylvania. In this reboot, it’s the event of 9/11 itself that influences Jack to his military and eventual CIA service.
We open with Jack as a student abroad when 9/11 occurs and this leads him to enlist in the military and an eventual injury sustained while serving in Afghanistan. His stateside rehab puts him in contact with a med student (Keira Knightley) who will become his fiancee and also with a CIA official (Kevin Costner) who’s on a recruiting (SHADOW RECRUITING!) mission. Costner’s casting as the wily veteran mentor was interesting to me in the sense that I bet the actor was probably offered the role of Ryan when Hunt for Red October was being developed (just an educated guess).
Costner recruits Ryan to go deep undercover as a Wall Street analyst whose main job is to keep an eye out for terrorist financial transactions. Jack discovers a plot to crash the U.S. financial market and perhaps carry out even more dastradly attacks on the homeland. This nefarious plot is led by a Russian baddie portrayed by the film’s director himeslf, Kenneth Branagh.
There’s a nifty sequence in Shadow Recruit where Jack and his fiancee must team up at a dinner meeting to trick Branagh’s villainous character. This portion is well-constructed and sufficiently suspenseful. Unfortunately, the remainder of the picture feels awfully familiar and unremarkable. The truth is that it’s easy to see why audiences were ambivalent about this franchise reboot and why it only earned a middling $50 million stateside.
Like The Amazing Spider-Man in 2012, Shadow Recruit feels unnecessary. Also like that film, it’s an easy enough viewing experience and has its moments but that’s not quite enough to justify its existence. We’ve seen Batman and James Bond rebooted to terrific results in recent years. This reboot is one that is mildly entertaining but easily forgotten.
After nearly twelve years away from the screen, the character of CIA agent Jack Ryan returns with the fourth actor playing the role in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, out Friday. We’ve had Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck in the part and now it’s Chris Pine’s turn.
Based on the works of the late Tom Clancy, Shadow Recruit is the first Ryan pic not specifically based on one of his books. Kenneth Branagh, who most recently directed the first Thor movie, is behind the camera. Kevin Costner and Keira Knightley costar. As mentioned, it’s been since May 2002 when Affleck starred in The Sum of All Fears. This franchise has been rather consistent in its grosses. Here’s a rundown:
1990: The Hunt for Red October – opening: $17.1 million. Total domestic gross: $122 million.
1992: Patriot Games – opening: $18.5 million. Total domestic gross: $83.3 million.
1994: Clear and Present Danger – opening: $20.3 million. Total domestic gross: $122.1 million.
2002: The Sum of All Fears – opening: $31.1 million. Total domestic gross: $118.9 million.
Shadow Recruit was originally scheduled to debut over Christmas but was pushed back to January by Paramount when The Wolf of Wall Street was delayed to the holiday weekend. It will be interesting to see how the long gap between Ryan features affects its gross. While the previous entries have been solid grossers, I don’t really feel that there was a big clamoring for another installment. When the Bourne franchise shuffled the deck and put Jeremy Renner in the role with Matt Damon out, it opened with a solid $38 million in 2012. Yet that was far below what previous Bourne flicks had accomplished. And that franchise was more current with audiences as well. Recruit probably won’t reach the heights of what Bourne did two years ago. Chris Pine likely doesn’t have the star power to guarantee a huge opening. His other franchise, Star Trek, already has a built-in audience.
And then there’s the competition factor, which is significant. Lone Survivor just had the second biggest January opening of all time and it should continue to play well in its sophomore weekend. Recruit is going after the same crowd that Survivor appeals to. And there’s also Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job all opening which cater to African-American, horror, and family audiences, respectively.
Add all that up and I expect Recruit to have a respectable though unspectacular debut over the four day MLK weekend.
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
Before JJ Abrams moves onto making another beloved sci-fi franchise that begins with the word “Star”, the director is following up his massively successful restart of another beloved franchise with Star Trek Into Darkness, opening Thursday.
In the summer of 2009, Star Trek reinvigorated a slumping franchise to the tune of a $257 million domestic gross. The film’s reputation has only seemed to grow in the past four years. The sequel sees Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto return as Kirk and Spock and the marketing campaign has been heavy. With Iron Man 3 entering its third weekend, Darkness is poised to make a splashy #1 debut.
Against smaller expectations four years ago, Star Trek debuted to a very impressive $75 million in its first weekend. It would stand to reason that the sequel’s opening gross will be bigger. Plus it opens on Thursday, so the four-day gross alone as opposed to the original’s three should be greater.
The question is: just how much bigger will it open? While audiences certainly liked what they saw in 2009, it’s a legitimate point to wonder just how many new viewers will turn out the first weekend. The Trekkie fan base certainly grew with Abrams taking over the series and it exposed many younger moviegoers to Captain Kirk’s world.
While I believe the Friday to Sunday portion of Darkness‘s take will exceed $75 million, it may not exceed it by a whole lot, especially with the Thursday debut when die-hard Trekkies will rush out to see it.
So – what’s the ceiling here? I’d say $120 million is not unreasonable for the four-day take. Once again, I’m tempted to go there. Yet, ultimately, I believe a Friday to Sunday take in the mid-80s in addition to a high teens to low twenties Thursday gross is more possible.
In just two years, JJ Abrams will direct the breathlessly awaited seventh episode of the Star Wars franchise. He should definitely be coming off a sizable hit with Star Trek Into Darkness as he begins work on that picture in England.
Star Trek Into Darkness opening weekend (including Thursday) prediction: $106.2 million
On Wednesday, I’ll predict the weekend’s Top Five which includes the second frame of The Great Gatsby and Tony Stark’s third weekend.
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