Tag: Box Office

The Nut Job Box Office Prediction

While Disney’s Frozen continues to post impressive numbers after several weeks in release, another animated tale debuts Friday with The Nut Job. This is the first animated feature from Open Roads Films with the Weinstein Company picking up international distribution. Featuring the voices of Will Arnett, Brendan Fraser, Liam Neeson, and Katherine Heigl, the squirrel flick is certainly nowhere near the stratosphere of any Pixar or Disney product or anything like the Despicable Me series.

Still, family audiences could be on the lookout for something new as Frozen has been out for quite a while now. Having said that, this is certainly on the B team of animated movies and I wouldn’t expect anything too high. Anything over $25 million for the four day MLK weekend would be surprising. I expect it to follow the pattern of another “B team” animated entry – last year’s Escape from Planet Earth. That film earned $15.8 million over the three day portion of 2013’s President’s Day weekend and $21.1 million for the four day holiday time frame. That seems like a fairly reasonable range for The Nut Job, but I will predict this falls a bit under that.

The Nut Job opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)

For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/jack-ryan-shadow-recruit-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Ride Along, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/ride-along-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Devil’s Due, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/devils-due-box-office-prediction/

Devil’s Due Box Office Prediction

The found footage horror flick Devil’s Due delivers itself unto theaters this Friday. When looking at horror titles released in January, there’s plenty of them to look at for comparisons sake.

Two years ago, The Devil Inside (a similarly themed movie) hauled in an incredible $33.7 million in its debut. There’s also genre pics that opened over the same MLK holiday weekend: in 2009, My Blood Valentine 3D opened to $24.1 million over the four-day and just last year, Mama premiered to a terrific $32.1 million over that time frame. Another similar title, 2009’s The Unborn, debuted to $20.8 million in January.

Then there’s the flipside. Just last weekend, found footage sequel Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones debuted to a less than expected $18.3 million. Audiences may be tiring of being fed the same movie over and over again and Devil’s Due looks like it might fall under that category. Horror films are notoriously difficult to predict. Devil’s Due has the potential to reach the heights of The Devil Inside or Mama, but I don’t believe it will. The film could also tank and struggle to reach double digits. I think it will perform similar to yet another January horror flick from 2011 – The Rite, which made $14.7 million for its opening. I am predicting a mid teens debut for the three-day and higher teens for the four-day.

Devil’s Due opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday-to-Monday)

For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/jack-ryan-shadow-recruit-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Ride Along, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/ride-along-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Nut Job, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/the-nut-job-box-office-prediction/

Ride Along Box Office Prediction

Ice Cube and Kevin Hart team up for the action comedy Ride Along, out Friday. Both performers have had a history of solid box office returns. Just two years ago, Hart headlined Think Like a Man, which debuted in April 2012 to an astonishing $33.6 million opening. Ice Cube has seen his Barbershop pictures and family titles like Are There We Yet? and sequel Are We Done Yet? all debut in the mid teen to low 20s range.

The range for how Ride Along could perform is pretty wide. I wouldn’t be too surprised if it approached an opening around $30 million for the four-day MLK weekend. However, the amount of competition out there that includes Lone Survivor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and Devil’s Due might bring those numbers below that. A more likely scenario in my mind is a three-day debut in the high teens with a four-day holiday gross in the low 20s. It is worth noting, though, that these actors have had larger than expected premieres before, so you never know.

Ride Along opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million (Friday-to-Monday)

For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/jack-ryan-shadow-recruit-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Devil’s Due, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/devils-due-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Nut Job, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/the-nut-job-box-office-prediction/

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Box Office Prediction

After nearly twelve years away from the screen, the character of CIA agent Jack Ryan returns with the fourth actor playing the role in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, out Friday. We’ve had Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck in the part and now it’s Chris Pine’s turn.

Based on the works of the late Tom Clancy, Shadow Recruit is the first Ryan pic not specifically based on one of his books. Kenneth Branagh, who most recently directed the first Thor movie, is behind the camera. Kevin Costner and Keira Knightley costar. As mentioned, it’s been since May 2002 when Affleck starred in The Sum of All Fears. This franchise has been rather consistent in its grosses. Here’s a rundown:

1990: The Hunt for Red October – opening: $17.1 million. Total domestic gross: $122 million.

1992: Patriot Games – opening: $18.5 million. Total domestic gross: $83.3 million.

1994: Clear and Present Danger – opening: $20.3 million. Total domestic gross: $122.1 million.

2002: The Sum of All Fears – opening: $31.1 million. Total domestic gross: $118.9 million.

Shadow Recruit was originally scheduled to debut over Christmas but was pushed back to January by Paramount when The Wolf of Wall Street was delayed to the holiday weekend. It will be interesting to see how the long gap between Ryan features affects its gross. While the previous entries have been solid grossers, I don’t really feel that there was a big clamoring for another installment. When the Bourne franchise shuffled the deck and put Jeremy Renner in the role with Matt Damon out, it opened with a solid $38 million in 2012. Yet that was far below what previous Bourne flicks had accomplished. And that franchise was more current with audiences as well. Recruit probably won’t reach the heights of what Bourne did two years ago. Chris Pine likely doesn’t have the star power to guarantee a huge opening. His other franchise, Star Trek, already has a built-in audience.

And then there’s the competition factor, which is significant. Lone Survivor just had the second biggest January opening of all time and it should continue to play well in its sophomore weekend. Recruit is going after the same crowd that Survivor appeals to. And there’s also Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job all opening which cater to African-American, horror, and family audiences, respectively.

Add all that up and I expect Recruit to have a respectable though unspectacular debut over the four day MLK weekend.

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)

For my prediction on Ride Along, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/ride-along-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Devil’s Due, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/devils-due-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Nut Job, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/the-nut-job-box-office-prediction/

August: Osage County Box Office Prediction

Opening tomorrow in approximately 900 theaters is August: Osage County, which is based on a Pulitzer Prize winning play and features a cast of acting heavyweights. For many months, John Wells’ drama/comedy from the Weinstein Company was looked at as a potential Oscar favorite. While it stands a remote shot at a Best Picture nomination, reviews have been mixed and it currently stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Stars Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts stand better chances at Academy Award nominations. County‘s co-stars include Ewan McGregor, Chris Cooper, Abigail Breslin, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, and Margo Martindale in this tale of a dysfunctional family and their secrets.

The picture has one thing in its favor: while Lone Survivor and The Legend of Hercules are more geared toward male viewers, this is hoping to bring out females. It has more things not in its favor: Oscar hopeful Her is also expanding this weekend and could nab a larger portion of the female crowd. It’s only opening on approximately 900 screens, which will diminish its gross. And, most importantly, the awards buzz never reached anywhere near the level that the studio was hoping for.

Add all that up and I expect August: Osage County to post an OK but rather unimpressive debut in its expansion.

August: Osage County opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

Blogger’s Note: Followers of this site may know that my box office predictions for the following weekend’s films are always posted on the prior Sunday. August: Osage County is an exception because it wasn’t until today that I knew approximately how many theaters the picture was debuting in. My normal Sunday predictions will continue to be the always preferred method.

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

 

Box Office Predictions: January 10-12

The second weekend of 2014 brings three new wide release offerings for your consideration – the war drama Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg, Renny Harlin’s The Legend of Hercules, and Spike Jonze’s critically acclaimed Her with Joaquin Phoenix. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Lone Survivor should fairly easily open at #1. The Legend of Hercules could completely bomb, but I’m giving it enough credit to reach double digits at the three spot. Her likely won’t reach double digits.

Last weekend’s champ Frozen should slip to second while I am predicting holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will battle Her for slots 4-6.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend box office:

1. Lone Survivor

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

3. The Legend of Hercules

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Her

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Blogger’s note: For the past several months, I’ve been doing box office results analysis every Sunday. Starting next week, I will be combining the results from the previous weekend with this here weekly predictions post for the next weekend which comes every Monday. The main reason: I’m usually busy Sunday doing my predictions posts for the next week’s newcomers, which will continue without interruption. Secondly, the final box office numbers come in Monday so I can more accurately update how I performed. Until next time, my friends!

Her Box Office Prediction

Combining comedy with science fiction and drama and romance in a critically-acclaimed awards contender? That means Spike Jonze is back in theaters and his fourth feature Her is released wide this Friday. Jonze was a prominent music video director who broke through with 1999’s Being John Malkovich and went on to helm 2002’s Adaptation and 2009’s Where the Wild Things Are.

Her stars Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara, and the voice of Scarlett Johannson. It’s being touted as an Oscar contender and I am currently predicting both the picture and Jonze receive nominations. Her is a favorite of critics with a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

How this translates into box office success is a question mark. Opening in approximately 1700 theaters, one must wonder if many casual moviegoers will look at this as more of an art house picture and skip it. On the positive side, it could appeal to a female audience whereas the weekend’s other newcomers Lone Survivor and The Legend of Hercules are marketing toward the male crowd. With a relatively low number of screens (Lone Survivor will debut on about one thousand more), Her could flirt with a double digits opening. I suspect, however, that it will fall a bit under that.

Her opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

The Legend of Hercules Box Office Prediction

Last year it was dueling White House in danger movies and in 2014, there are two Hercules pics and it begins Friday with The Legend of Hercules, Renny Harlin’s effort starring Kellan Lutz. In July comes Hercules: The Thracian Wars from director Brett Ratner and starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

The Legend of Hercules is highly likely to be the least successful of the pair. Lutz is mostly known for his role in the Twilight franchise and recently for possibly being Miley Cyrus’s boyfriend. He is not a known box office commodity and shouldn’t bring in moviegoers like The Rock probably will. With a reported $70 million budget, The Legend of Hercules is surely looking for a debut above $20 million, but I don’t see it happening. It doesn’t help that Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg opens against it and that picture is competing for essentially the same audience.

Perhaps this first Hercules of 2014 could surprise with a healthy gross, but I suspect it’ll struggle to get much past double digits.

The Legend of Hercules opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Lone Survivor Box Office Prediction

Peter Berg’s war drama Lone Survivor starring Mark Wahlberg hits theaters this Friday and it will attempt to reach solid box office numbers like Zero Dark Thirty did in this same weekend just last year.

The picture focuses on a true-life tale of U.S. Navy SEALS during a mission in Afghanistan with Wahlberg leading a cast that includes Emile Hirsch, Eric Bana, and Taylor Kitsch. It was released in limited format in December to qualify for Oscar consideration and while reviews have been mostly positive (67% on Rotten Tomatoes), it appears unlikely to receive nominations.

As mentioned, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty opened on this very weekend a year ago and performed well with a $24.4 million debut. That film had a couple of things in its favor that Survivor does not: it was considered a major awards contender and it focused on a mission that audiences were extremely familiar with – the hunt for Bin Laden.

On the other hand, unlike Zero Dark, this has a big star headlining it whose action-related pics generally open well. In fact, on this same weekend two years ago, Wahlberg’s Contraband made $28.5 million over its four-day debut (it was Martin Luther King weekend that year). Last year, both Pain and Gain and 2 Guns managed to post openings north of $20 million.

There will be competition for male audiences with The Legend of Hercules, but I expect this to win out. My prediction reflects a feeling that it’ll debut a bit below Zero Dark Thirty, though not by much. Anything below $20 million would be a bit disappointing and this could go as big as high 20s. I’m sticking with low 20s though.

Lone Survivor opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: Jan 3-5

A significant portion of the country was frozen this weekend so it’s fitting that Disney’s Frozen took the top spot at the box office. What’s interesting is that it took six weeks for the animated hit to reach #1 and it did it due to a less than expected debut for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Frozen grossed $20.7 million, above my $19 million estimate and it’s earned $297 million since late November. A final tally of $350 million looks reachable.

This meant The Marked Ones, the fifth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, had to settle for second with $18.2 million, well below my $26.8M estimate. The series appears to be running out of steam and you have to wonder if some potential moviegoers on the East Coast and in the Midwest were too scared to leave their house to venture out and watch a scary movie.

Falling to third after three weeks at #1 was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. It grossed $16.2 million. My prediction? $16.2 million! Gold star! The Tolkien tale has hauled in $229 million in four weeks.

Holding up better than I figured in its second weekend was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It earned $13.4 million, outpacing my $11M prediction. The very R rated pic has made $63 million so far and looks poised to pass the century mark at some point.

Wall Street narrowly beat out American Hustle, which was fifth in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13.1M projection. Gold star #2! Hustle has made an impressive $88 million in three weeks of wide release.

Placing sixth in weekend three was Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with $11.1 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Ron Burgundy and friends crossed the century mark as its gross stands at $109 million.

And there’s your weekend results! Be sure to check the blog later today for predictions on next weekend’s newcomers – Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules, and Her.