Tag: Box Office

Box Office Results: June 14-16

It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a terrific box office prediction by yours truly!

Yes, I will pat myself on the back this weekend because the radar was clicking with Man of Steel. While most prognosticators went with between $80-$100 million, I boldly predicted the Superman reboot would gross $124.3 million. Estimates put it at $125.1 million. Gold star!

Zack Snyder’s Steel got mixed reviews, but its A- Cinemascore grade indicates audiences were pleased with what they saw.

I did go a bit high on the all-star comedy This is The End. It earned $20.5 million over the weekend and $32.8 million over its five-day take (it opened Wednesday). My estimates were $25.2M and $38.6M, respectively. Still, that’s a pretty solid opening – especially considering it cost only $32M to make.

The rest of the top five: Now You See Me was third was $10.3M (I guessed $11.5M), Fast and Furious 6 was fourth with $9.4M (I said $10.5M), and The Purge had an enormous drop in its second weekend with $8.2M (I said $13.2M).

That’s all for now folks! I’ll have predictions for both of next weekend’s openers, Monsters University and World War Z, up on the blog very soon!

This Is The End Box Office Prediction

It seems like every summer, there’s a breakout R-rated comedy or two that hits it big at the box office. Wedding Crashers. Knocked Up. Superbad. The Hangover. Bridesmaids. Horrible Bosses. Ted.

This Is the End has the potential to be 2013’s contender in the category. It features a who’s who of contemporary comedic starts playing themselves as the apocalypse nears. We’ve got Seth Rogen and James Franco. Danny McBride and Jonah Hill. Michael Cera and Jay Baruchel. And many more – even Emma Watson and Rihanna are in the house!

Early reviews for End have been very positive and it apparently delivers on its clever premise. The trailers have been quite funny. So… how big could it open?

This is a tough one and its release date is a factor. End opens on Wednesday, so my prediction will reflect my five-day estimate. There is no doubt in my mind that the Wednesday opening is due to a certain superhero flick opening Friday. This allows End two days of grosses without Superman in competition. I made my prediction for Man of Steel yesterday on the blog and that post can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/man-of-steel-box-office-prediction/

Man of Steel absolutely provides direct competition for This Is the End. They are both going after a similar demographic. If End were able to bring in $45 million or over for the five-day, that should be considered a major victory. I’m not convinced it goes that high, though it’s certainly possible. As much as I’ve enjoyed the film’s marketing campaign, I truly wonder whether its concept may seem a little insider-ish for some moviegoers. For instance, I’m not sure it has the broad appeal of last summer’s Ted, which opened to $54 million (that’s a three-day gross). And with Superman in the way, there might be some viewers who simply choose to make that film their weekend entertainment.

Still, This Is the End should have a solid debut and, based on early critical reaction, could have nice legs in the coming weeks.

This Is the End opening prediction (five-day gross): $38.6 million

That’s all for now! On Wednesday, I’ll have my predictions for the Top Five of the weekend.

Man of Steel Box Office Prediction

As we enter a new week, one question will be bothering box office prognosticators like me: How big will Man of Steel open?

Zack Snyder’s take on the Superman story seems to have a lot going for it. For starters, the trailers for it have been terrific. Audience awareness of the film is through the roof. And… well, it’s Superman for goodness sake!

However, the Man of Steel’s track record at the box office underwent an interest journey just seven summers ago. Bryan Singer’s Superman Returns was supposed to be the beginning of a new Supes franchise. It didn’t work out that way. While the picture grossed a solid $84 million in its first five days, moviegoers and critics weren’t impressed with what they saw. Returns went on to gross $200 million domestically, less than its huge budget. The film was considered a box office disappointment.

Warner Bros. went back to the drawing board, bringing in 300 and Watchmen director Snyder. Relative unknown (but not for long) Henry Cavill is Superman/Clark Kent. While the lead may not be a big name, Man of Steel‘s supporting cast is populated with recognizable stars – Amy Adams, Michael Shannon, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane, Laurence Fishburne and Russell Crowe.

Folks seem to be excited about Man of Steel. Those effective trailers have been a plus. As I consider its opening weekend possibilities, the question seems to be: will it gross over $100 million the first weekend or not?

I believe it will. Frankly, anything below nine figures might be considered a letdown. It does come with a reported $225 million budget, after all. When the sixth Fast and Furious earns $120 million over four days, it stands to reason that Man of Steel could make similar bank in three. Somewhere in the $120M range seems like the best bet. There’s also the distinct possibility that it makes upwards of that number. Anything around $140 million and we’re talking Top Ten openings of all time. I’m skeptical it’ll reach that high and I’m more inclined to go a bit lower. However, as the week rolls along and anticipation grows, this could turn out to be a low ball figure.

With that, here’s my best guess:

Man of Steel opening weekend prediction: $124.3 million

We’ll see what happens! Tomorrow on the blog – my prediction for the week’s other newcomer, the all-star comedy This is the End.

The Internship Box Office Prediction

Eight long summers ago, Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson struck box office gold with Wedding Crashers, which was the surprise hit of the season with $209 million domestically. Since then, the two actors have seen more flops than hits. Fred Claus? You, Me, and Dupree? The Dilemma? Drillbit Taylor? Hall Pass? The Watch?

You get the idea. So it makes perfect sense that the two stars would team up again to recapture some box office magic. The Internship features Vince and Owen as obsolete salesmen who are forced to start over at Google headquarters. It costars Rose Byrne, John Goodman, and maybe even a surprise actor or two…

The question is: will the reunion of these actors be enough to guarantee solid box office returns? My feeling is – if so, the marketing campaign surrounding the picture is not doing it any favors. I simply haven’t found the trailers to be very funny at all. Some of the humor displayed in the previews looks curiously outdated. And I find the decision of a PG-13 rating to be possibly troubling – Wedding Crashers, after all, is known for its R rated humor.

When The Internship was first announced, there may have been a feeling of excitement about the two leads teaming up again. That anticipation seems to have dissipated. There’s also what I feel will be a real competition for the top spot this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge seems to be running an effective marketing campaign and its numbers could be strong. My prediction post for that will be up either later tonight or tomorrow.

The Internship is an excellent example of a movie that could easily over or under perform. We could see a $30 million opening weekend. We could see a $12 million opening weekend. I think Vaughn and Wilson reunited is most likely to equal a high teens or low-twenties opening weekend.

The Internship opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

Box Office Results: May 31-June 2

It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking. 

This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.

We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.

This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.

And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.

Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).

RECAP

Fast and Furious 6

Gross: $35.1 million. Todd’s Prediction: $36 million.

Now You See Me

Gross: $29.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $14.2 million.

After Earth

Gross: $27.5 million. Todd’s Prediction: $39.1 million.

Epic

Gross: $16.6 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.7 million.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Gross: $16.7 million. Todd’s Prediction: $18.5 million.

The Hangover Part III

Gross: $16.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.1 million.

So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!