Box Office Predictions: December 9-11

In the weekend before Rogue One and then a slew of Christmas releases populate the multiplexes, we have two pics opening in wide release: holiday comedy Office Christmas Party and Jessica Chastain political drama Miss Sloane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/30/office-christmas-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/02/miss-sloane-box-office-prediction/

Actually, there’s a third film scheduled to come out in wide (or semi-wide) release and that’s Tom Ford’s thriller Nocturnal Animals with Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal. The problem is that I don’t have a screen count on it at press time, so predicting its number is a bit of guesswork. I’ll say it manages $2.3M. However, when its count is released, I reserve to right to change that estimate.

Back to the newbies with theater counts. Office Christmas Party may benefit from being the only comedy out there (Bad Santa 2 has come and gone) and with its recognizable cast, I’ve got it pegged to manage a #2 opening, just behind Moana‘s third weekend.

Fantastic Beasts should slip to third with holdovers Arrival and Allied filling out the top five, with Sloane very close behind.

Here’s how I have the top 6 projected for this weekend:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Office Christmas Party

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Miss Sloane

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend is typically a pretty sleepy one at the box office and 2016 was no different.

Disney’s Moana easily held the top spot for the second weekend in a row grossing $28.2 million (on pace with my $28.8M projection). The animated hit has amassed $119M thus far.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held the #2 position with $18.1 million, a bit under my $20.9M prediction for an overall gross of $183M.

Other holdovers held up quite well over the weekend. Arrival was third with $7.2 million (above my $5.9M estimate) for a $73M total. Allied was fourth with $7 million (I said $5.9M for it as well). It’s grossed $28M. Doctor Strange was fifth with $6.6 million (I said $6.1M). The Marvel property stands at $215M.

Last and least, horror pic Incarnate landed in ninth with a blah $2.5 million, though it did manage to just outpace my $1.7M forecast.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Check out the blog tomorrow when my Rogue One: A Star Wars Story box office prediction is posted. Until then…

Miss Sloane Box Office Prediction

Audiences get a chance to get acquainted with Miss Sloane when it opens wide next weekend. The political drama stars Jessica Chastain as an influential DC lobbyist who takes on the powerful gun lobby. John Madden (director of Shakespeare in Love and the two Marigold Hotel pics) is behind the camera with a supporting cast that includes Mark Strong, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Michael Stuhlbarg, Alison Pill, Jake Lacy, John Lithgow and Sam Waterston.

Sloane is getting a bit of attention due to Chastain’s performance. Reviews have singled out her work and she may be in line for an Oscar nomination (though that is a highly competitive race this year and she could be on the outside looking in). That said, critical reaction has been mixed and it stands at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Political movies always face an uphill struggle with moviegoers and this may especially hold true in a year where the subject is everywhere around us.

Debuting on approximately 1600 screens, Sloane may just get to mid single digits.

Miss Sloane opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million

For my Office Christmas Party prediction, click here:

Office Christmas Party Box Office Prediction

Office Christmas Party Box Office Prediction

Comedic holiday hijinks ensue next weekend as Office Christmas Party RSVP’s into theaters. The R rated pic features a cast of familiar faces including Jason Bateman, Jennifer Aniston, Olivia Munn, T.J. Miller, Jillian Bell, Courtney B. Vance, Rob Corddry, Vanessa Bayer, Matt Walsh and Kate McKinnon. Josh Gordon and Will Speck handle directorial duties and their previous effort was 2010’s The Switch, which featured Bateman and Aniston.

The Paramount release could benefit from both its cast and the fact that drunken and wild work XMas bashes are something many can relate to. Party comes from a story originated by Jon Lucas and Scott Moore, who wrote The Hangover. It also has no competition in the second weekend of December in its genre.

I’ll predict a decent number of moviegoers attend this Party to the tune of a mid to high teens debut.

Office Christmas Party opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million

For my Miss Sloane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/02/miss-sloane-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: December 2-4

The first weekend of December will be filled by Thanksgiving leftovers as only one newbie debuts this weekend: supernatural horror pic Incarnate starring Aaron Eckhart. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/24/incarnate-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m expecting Incarnate to bomb with just a $1.7 million opening, meaning it shouldn’t come close to the top 5.

When it comes to holdovers, Disney’s Moana should easily top the charts in its second weekend. I’m estimating it will lose close to half its opening frame audience. Fantastic Beasts should hold the runner-up spot.

The real drama could be for #3 as I expect Doctor Strange, Allied, and Arrival to each make about the same amount. The post Thanksgiving weekend usually sees pretty large declines for returning product and I expect this year to be no different.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (November 25-27)

As anticipated, Disney ruled the Turkey Day holiday frame as their acclaimed animated title Moana was #1. It grossed $56.6 million over Friday to Sunday (right on target with my $56.4M estimate) and $82 million since its Wednesday roll-out (topping my $77.2M projection). Look for the ‘toon to play well over the next month.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them displayed a far better hold than I gave it credit for at second with $45 million as opposed to my $34.9M prediction. The J.K. Rowling would-be franchise has taken in $156M thus far.

Marvel’s Doctor Strange was third with $13.7 million, in line with my $14M prediction to bring its haul to $205M.

The Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard World War II romantic thriller Allied suffered a ho-hum 4th place showing. It made $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $17.7 million since its Wednesday bow, coming in under my respective forecasts of $14.2M and $21.1M.

Arrival displayed a strong hold in its third frame at #5 with $11.4 million (above my $8.6M prediction) for a $62M total.

Trolls came in sixth with $10.6 million (I went a little higher at $12.7M) for $135M overall.

Audiences greeted Bad Santa 2 with little enthusiasm as it debuted in seventh place to just $6.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $9.1 million since Wednesday, a bit below my guesstimates of $8.1M and $10.8M.

Almost Christmas was eighth with $5.6 million (I said $4.7M) for a $34M haul.

Mel Gibson’s directorial comeback Hacksaw Ridge was ninth with $5.5 million (I said $5.1M) to bring its pleasing earnings to $52M.

I incorrectly had The Edge of Seventeen outside of the top ten in its second weekend. It earned $2.9 million to bring its small gross just over $10M.

That’s because I gave too much credit to Warren Beatty’s return to the big screen in Rules Don’t Apply. The pic debuted with an extremely disappointing $1.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $2.1 million since Wednesday. That’s good for just 12th place and well shy of my $4.8M and $6.3M prognoses.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

Incarnate Box Office Prediction

The first weekend of December is typically a very light frame for new product and 2016 is no different as horror flick Incarnate is the only new offering. From Blumhouse Tilt (a studio that makes their pics cheap and fast), the exorcism tale stars Aaron Eckhart. It’s been a busy year for the lead actor, as he’s already appeared in supporting roles this fall with hit Sully and flop Bleed for This. Brad Peyton (who made last summer’s San Andreas) is behind the camera and costars include Carice van Houtem and Catalina Sandino Moreno.

Despite a release in European territories last summer, Incarnate has sat on the shelf waiting for U.S. distribution. That’s usually not a sign of confidence from the studio and neither is its dumping ground release date. This should follow the pattern of many other first weekend of December premieres and post extremely low numbers.

Incarnate opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

Box Office Predictions: November 25-27

It’s Turkey Day weekend at the 2016 box office and there’s four new titles debuting in wide release: Disney’s latest animated creation Moana, Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard WWII thriller Allied, raunchy sequel Bad Santa 2, and Warren Beatty’s long in the making Rules Don’t Apply. You can stuff yourself on my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/moana-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/allied-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/bad-santa-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/rules-dont-apply-box-office-prediction/

All 4 releases debut Wednesday to capitalize on the holiday weekend, so my estimates reflect both a three-day and five-day forecast on them.

Moana should rather easily debut on top, especially with the less than expected returns of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over this past weekend (more on that below).

I’m slating Allied for a third place showing, but if it comes in with less than my estimate, it could battle both Doctor Strange and Trolls for the 3-5 spots. It’s worth noting that holdovers on Thanksgiving weekend typically experience smaller than usual declines. While I’ve got Beasts losing over half its audience in its sophomore frame, I have Strange, Trolls, and Arrival losing crowd shares in the low-high 20s percentile range.

That means I’ve got Bad Santa 2 premiering at #7 with Rules Don’t Apply in ninth place between Hacksaw Ridge and Almost Christmas.

Here’s how the blog readers view my predictions on the newbies:

Moana – 55% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 7% Too High

Allied – 52% Just About Right, 30% Too Low, 18% Too High

Bad Santa 2 – 58% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 11% Too High

Rules Don’t Apply – 64% Just About Right, 18% Too High, 18% Too Low

Any way you look at it… this will be one fascinating weekend to watch and here’s how my top ten looks:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $34.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Allied

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 21%)

5. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 27%)

6. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 29%)

7. Bad Santa 2

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 23%)

9. Rules Don’t Apply

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

10. Almost Christmas

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (November 18-20)

It was a weekend where all four new releases came in below expectations… some far more drastically than others.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned $74.4 million to begin a planned five film franchise. This number is on the lower end of expectations and under my $83.1M projection. This is certainly no disaster for Warner Bros, but a gross closer to $90M was probably their hope. That said, expect the J.K. Rowling series to keep rolling.

Doctor Strange fell to second with $17.7 million (below my $21.5M estimate) for a three-week tally of $181M.

Trolls was third with $17.4 million (I was a bit higher with $19.7M) for a gross of $116M thus far.

In its second weekend, Arrival was fourth with $12.1 million, a bit under my $13.6M estimate for a $43M total.

I incorrectly had Almost Christmas outside the top five, but it was fifth with $7.2 million for a $25M overall gross.

And… then there’s the other fresh product that came over the weekend. Audiences weren’t interested. Despite critical acclaim, the coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen sputtered with $4.7 million in seventh place, less than half of my $10.9M prediction.

The news was worse for boxing drama Bleed for This, KO’d in 8th place with just $2.3 million (less than half my $5.8M prognosis).

Which brings us to Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Ugh. I somehow estimated it would make $9.2 million. Yet its lukewarm critical reaction and tampered down buzz (it was once thought of to be a potential awards factor) absolutely destroyed it. Walk was DOA in 14th place with an atrocious $901,000. So… oops!

And there you have it, my friends! Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! Until next time…

Rules Don’t Apply Box Office Prediction

There’s directors and actors who take time between projects and then there’s those that really do. Warren Beatty belongs in that category and Rules Don’t Apply (out Thanksgiving weekend) marks his first turn behind the camera in 18 years and first time in front of the camera in over 15 years.

The legendary star is notoriously slow-paced when it comes to perfecting his works and Apply was actually wrapped for the most part about two and a half years ago. The old school Hollywood tale set in the 1950s casts Beatty as famed reclusive billionaire Howard Hughes with a romantic plot between costars Lily Collins and Alden Ehrenreich (soon to be the next Han Solo in that Star Wars spin-off). The supporting cast is filled with familiar faces that include Warren’s wife Annette Bening, Matthew Broderick, Alec Baldwin, Ed Harris, Oliver Platt, Haley Bennett, Candice Bergen, Steve Coogan, and Dabney Coleman.

As mentioned, the last pic Beatty directed was 1998’s Bulworth, which made $26 million. His last appearance in any film was 2001’s Town & Country, which faltered with just $6.7 million. Reviews have been mixed and it sits at 62% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

Rules Don’t Apply could face a tough time breaking out in any way. The critical notices have taken it out of the running as a true Oscar contender. Adult moviegoers may be preoccupied with Allied, which opens against it. That leads me to a belief that this could only manage mid single digits for both the three-day and five-day weekend.

Rules Don’t Apply opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Moana prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/moana-box-office-prediction/

For my Allied prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/allied-box-office-prediction/

For my Bad Santa 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/bad-santa-2-box-office-prediction/

Bad Santa 2 Box Office Prediction

Thirteen years after its predecessor opened over the Turkey Day weekend, Billy Bob Thornton’s booze fueled holiday cheer returns in Bad Santa 2. The original has hit cult status, but it’s worth noting that it did quite well in its initial theatrical run. In 2003, it debuted to $12.2 million over the Friday to Sunday holiday frame and $16.8 million counting its Wednesday and Thursday grosses. It eventually earned $60M domestic.

Mark Waters (maker of hits like Freaky Friday and Mean Girls) takes over directorial duties from Terry Zwigoff. Thornton is back in the title role alongside returnees Tony Cox and Brett Kelly, in addition to Kathy Bates and Christina Hendricks.

2016 has seen a consistent pattern of long gestating sequels not matching the grosses of the first. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bad Santa 2 followed the same trajectory. Reviews so far have been mixed to negative. I’ll predict this doesn’t match what we saw 13 years ago and struggles to top low to mid double digits for its five-day.

Bad Santa 2 opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Moana prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/moana-box-office-prediction/

For my Allied prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/allied-box-office-prediction/

For my Rules Don’t Apply prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/rules-dont-apply-box-office-prediction/

Allied Box Office Prediction

Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard join forces in the World War II set romantic thriller Allied, out next week over the Thanksgiving frame. Robert Zemeckis, who’s made plenty of hits but misfired with last year’s The Walk, handles directorial responsibilities and the supporting cast includes Lizzy Caplan, Jared Harris, and Matthew Goode.

Paramount Pictures is hoping that adult crowds will turn out over the holiday weekend. It must be noted that Mr. Pitt has obviously been the subject of much press over the last few months due to his separation from Angelina Jolie. How that plays into box office dollars is an unknown. The star’s filmography is not short of WWII era titles, as he headlined both Inglourious Basterds and Fury (which made $120M and $85M, respectively).

Whether Allied gets to that level could be a question mark, but solid reviews would certainly help (there’s none at press time). I’ll say this debuts to mid teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with low 20s a realistic estimate for the five-day gross. That could eventually get it to Fury level, though Basterds numbers would be a reach.

Allied opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Moana prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/moana-box-office-prediction/

For my Bad Santa 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/bad-santa-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Rules Don’t Apply prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/rules-dont-apply-box-office-prediction/

Moana Box Office Prediction

Disney’s back at it again over Thanksgiving weekend as their animated adventure Moana hits screens. The musical fantasy comes from directors John Musker and Ron Clements, the duo responsible for now classics The Little Mermaid and Aladdin. Lin-Manuel Miranda (who started a little Broadway show called Hamilton) co-writes songs and voice over work is provided by Auli’i Cravalho (as the title character) and Dwayne Johnson.

Reviews for the pic have been quite solid so far – it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and Moana looks to continue what has been a record-breaking year for the Mouse Factory. It was over Turkey Day in 2015 that the studio experienced a rare animated misfire when The Good Dinosaur debuted to a middling $39 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $55 million for the five-day frame.

With stronger critical notices and Disney on a hot streak, Moana looks poised to improve upon that performance rather significantly. I’ll peg this at mid 50s and mid to high 70s for the respective 3 and 5 day grosses.

Moana opening weekend prediction: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)