Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: August 31-September 3

The summer box office season officially draws to a close this Labor Day weekend and there’s five new releases to consider. They are the Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama Operation Finale, John Cho’s computer based thriller Searching, family sci-fi tale Kin, Gothic horror tale The Little Stranger and Mexican import Ya Veremos. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/operation-finale-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/searching-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/kin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/the-little-stranger-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/ya-veremos-box-office-prediction/

I don’t have any of them breaking the $10 million mark for the four-day holiday weekend. I have Finale faring the best, mostly due to the fact that it’s slated to open on about 700 more screens than the critically hailed Searching.

My $3.9 million estimate for Kin, $2.6 million projection for Stranger and $2.5 million forecast for Veremos leave them outside of the top five. And even my $7.1 million prediction for Searching leaves it on the outside looking in.

The Labor Day weekend typically means that holdovers will experience increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. There is, of course, an extra day of totals to consider so that doesn’t hurt. It is not uncommon to see percentage bumps anywhere from the mid teens to high 20s and I expect that will hold true once again.

That means Crazy Rich Asians should have no trouble at all holding the top spot for the third frame in a row. Giving it an increase in the low to mid twenties seems plausible and that could it mean hits over $30 million. I suspect The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, and Christopher Robin will also experience solid weekends.

The only holdover that may fall is The Happytime Murders, which had a pretty bad debut over the weekend (more on that below).

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the long Labor Day weekend:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $10 million

4. Operation Finale

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

5. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (August 24-26) 

Crazy Rich Asians had a magnificent hold in its sophomore weekend to easily remain #1. The comedy dropped just 6%, taking in $24.8 million (blasting past my $16.9 million estimate). The two-week total is $76 million.

The Meg was second with $12.8 million (I said $11.2 million). The shark tale crossed the century mark and stands at $105 million after three weeks.

The Happytime Murders proved American audiences were in no mood for randy puppets. The poorly reviewed pic was third with a putrid $9.5 million, falling under my $13.8 million forecast.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $8 million (ahead of my $6.8 million take). It’s edging close to $200 million with $193 million total.

Mile 22 rounded out the top five with $6.3 million (I said $7.5 million). The Mark Wahlberg action thriller has made a middling $25 million in its two weeks of release.

Finally, robot dog flick A.X.L. opened meekly in 10th position with $2.7 million. It did manage to edge past my $2.1 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 24-26

This weekend at the box office features a battle between two very different comedies for the #1 spot: the second weekend of critically acclaimed rom com Crazy Rich Asians and the debut of dirty puppet pic The Happytime Murders. We also have the family science fiction tale A.X.L. opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/the-happytime-murders-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/a-x-l-box-office-prediction/

If Asians falls in the mid 30s range, it might manage to edge out Melissa McCarthy’s Murders. My estimates indicate this should be the first weekend since early February where no picture makes over $20 million as the summer season slows down.

The Meg should fall to third place with action flicks Mile 22 and Mission: Impossible – Fallout in a race for the 4 spot (I give Mile an edge).

As for A.X.L., I’m not expecting much at all and my tiny $2.1 million forecast leaves it outside the top 5. And with that, here’s those top five projections for the weekend:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

2. The Happytime Murders

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Mile 22

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 17-19)

Riding a wave of positive buzz and anticipation from its bestseller source material, Crazy Rich Asians had a terrific start in first place with $26.5 million for the weekend (topping my $22.5 million prediction). When factoring in its Wednesday debut, the critically praised comedy has made $35.2 million and that’s a bit above my call of $33.4 million.

The Meg dropped to second with $21.1 million, in line with my $20.3 million projection for $83 million so far.

Mark Wahlberg’s Mile 22 was a disappointment with a third place premiere at $13.7 million. I was a touch higher at $16.7 million. This definitely ranks on the lower end of the star’s action debuts.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $11 million) for $181 million overall. The sixth franchise entry stands a decent shot at surpassing the $215 million made by Mission: Impossible II and becoming the series all-time domestic earner.

Alpha performed better than I figured with a fifth place start at $10.3 million. I was way lower at $5.2 million.

Christopher Robin was sixth with $8.8 million (I said $7.4 million) for $66 million. The Disney feature could come close to $100 million when all is said and done, but it may fall a little short.

BlacKkKlansman was 7th in its sophomore outing with $7.3 million (I said $7.1 million) for a total of $23 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 17-19

Blogger’s Note (08/14/18): On the eve of its opening, I’m upgrading my Crazy Rich Asians estimate to low 20s and mid 30s for the three and five-day. That now gives it the #1 spot.

A trio of newcomers attempt to bite into the unexpected huge performance of The Meg and it keep it from a second frame atop the charts. We have critically acclaimed rom com Crazy Rich Asians, Mark Wahlberg’s action thriller Mile 22, and Ice Age adventure Alpha. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/crazy-rich-asians-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/mile-22-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/alpha-box-office-prediction/

Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. I don’t expect much from Alpha at all and my $5.2 million projection leaves it outside of the top five.

Even if The Meg falls over 50% in its second frame, it could still maintain the top spot with a gross in the low 20s.

However, that’s if Crazy Rich Asians doesn’t manage those numbers. My estimate has steadily risen, but its Wednesday opening could prevent it from hitting #1 (I’ve got it awfully close). Mile 22 should place third in the mid teens for a so-so start.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout should drop to fourth. The five-spot could be interesting as I have Christopher Robin and BlacKkKlansman grossing roughly the same amount.

And with that, here’s my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

3. Mile 22

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

6. BlacKkKlansman

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 10-12)

The Meg turned out to have the quite the mega opening stateside with $45.4 million, doubling (yes DOUBLING) my meager $22.7 million estimate. Never bet against sharks apparently. The shark tale performed well overseas as well, which was needed considering its reported $150 million plus budget.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was runner-up with $19.3 million (a tad below my $21.3 million prediction) for $161 million in its three weeks of release.

Christopher Robin was third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.8 million estimate. The Disney pic has made $50 million in two weeks.

Critically reviled horror flick Slender Man was fourth, debuting to $11.3 million (a couple notches above my take of $9.1 million). Look for it (with a D- Cinemascore grade) to fade quickly.

Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, with terrific reviews and awards buzz, started out strong on just over 1500 screens in fifth with $10.8 million (I said $9.6 million).

Finally, Dog Days premiered to totally unimpressive numbers in just 12th place with $2.5 million. I gave it way too much credit at $5.1 million. Woof.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 3-5

Blogger’s Note II (08/02/18): I am revising Christopher Robin down to $29.6 million, meaning I’m now predicting Mission: Impossible – Fallout will take the top spot.

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): I am revising my estimate for Darkest Minds from $8.7 million down to $6.3 million, which leaves it outside the top five.

The month of August at the box office kicks off with three new releases attempting to dislodge Tom Cruise and his IMF agents from the top spot: Disney’s Christopher Robin, Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/christopher-robin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-spy-who-dumped-me-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-darkest-minds-box-office-prediction/

Paramount is celebrating the franchise best opening yet with Mission: Impossible – Fallout and I’m anticipating a second weekend drop in the mid 40s range. That should put it in an extremely tight battle with Winnie the Pooh and company, which I have premiering in the mid 30s (though it could go higher).

The #3 spot should go to Spy, which I have slated for a mid teens start. Both Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2 dipped more harshly in their sophomore frames than I estimated. Therefore my high double digits projection for The Darkest Mind could be enough for it to nab #4 (though it could be neck and neck with Mamma).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

3. The Spy Who Dumped Me

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (July 27-29) 

22 years after part 1, Tom Cruise achieved his highest opening in the Mission: Impossible franchise as Fallout took in $61.2 million (a touch below my $63.6 million estimate). Bolstered by terrific reviews, the sixth entry in the spy saga managed to outdo previous record holder Mission: Impossible II‘s $57 million way back in 2000. It’s safe to say Mr. Cruise is planning his stunts for a seventh pic.

Holdovers all experienced harsher declines that I figured. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again remained in second place with $15.1 million (I said $19.8 million) to bring its two-week tally to $70 million.

Last week’s champ The Equalizer 2 was third with $14 million compared to my $17.1 million projection. The Denzel Washington sequel fell a mighty 61% in its sophomore outing.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation was fourth with $12.2 million (I went with my $13.6 million). It’s earned $119 million overall.

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, despite positive critical reaction, had a lackluster beginning in fifth place with $10.4 million, well under my $16.4 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 27-29

Tom Cruise and his IMF forces are back in theaters for the sixth time as Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuts this weekend along with the superhero animated tale Teen Titans! Go To the Movies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/17/mission-impossible-fallout-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Fallout is getting some of the best reviews that the 22-year-old franchise has ever received and the Ethan Hunt adventure should easily top the charts with a low to mid 60s haul.

It’s the #2 spot that could be a little more interesting. In a bit of a surprise this past weekend, The Equalizer 2 edged by Mamma Mia! Here Go Again for the #1 position. However, Fallout provides more direct competition for Denzel and it’s likely that Mamma retains the runner-up position with Equalizer falling to third.

And that’s only if Teen Titans doesn’t manage to outperform my estimate. My forecast for it has dwindled over the last few days and my low teens expectation could put it in a close battle for fourth with the third weekend of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. 

Here’s how I see the top five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $63.6 million

2. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Teen Titans! Go To the Movies

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

Box Office Results (July 20-22) 

Denzel Washington continued to prove his box office potency as The Equalizer 2 was a surprise #1 over Mamma Mia with $36 million, easily outpacing my $26.8 million estimate. That tops the $34 million earned out of the gate by its predecessor. With the Mission competition coming up, I expect this to drop approximately 50%.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, despite failing to place first, opened right in line with expectations with a pleasing $34.9 million. That’s a bit higher than my $33.5 million estimate. As stated above, I expect it to maintain its #2 position this weekend.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped to third with $23.7 million in its sophomore frame for $91 million total. That’s on target with my $24.5 million prediction.

Ant-Man and the Wasp was fourth with $16.5 million (I said $15.2 million) to bring its tally to $165 million.

Incredibles 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The Pixar record breaker took in $11.8 million and it’s up to $557 million.

I mistakenly had Skyscraper in the top 5, but it was sixth with $11.3 million (a tad under my $12 million projection). The underwhelming Dwayne Johnson action pic has made $47 million.

Lastly, Unfriended: Dark Web couldn’t generate an audience with just $3.4 million (I went higher at $5.1 million). That said, the Blumhouse horror sequel reportedly only cost $1 million, so I’m sure the studio isn’t sweating it too much.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 20-22

In a summer season filled with them, we have our most sequel heavy weekend ahead of us as Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, The Equalizer 2, and Unfriended: Dark Web all debut on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/mamma-mia-here-we-go-again-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/the-equalizer-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/11/unfriended-dark-web-box-office-prediction/

Both Mamma and Equalizer will attempt to unseat current sequel champ Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation from the top spot. The former seems to have the edge, while Denzel Washington’s first sequel ever should place second. That puts Adam Sandler’s animated flick in third with Ant-Man and the Wasp and the underwhelming Skyscraper rounding out the top five.

The low theater count for Unfriended means my $5.1 million estimate leaves it lurking outside of the high five. Here is my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $33.5 million

2. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

3. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

5. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $12 million

Box Office Results (July 13-15)

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opened right in line with expectations at #1 with $44 million (I said $43.6 million). The third iteration of Adam Sandler and his monster friends could see a slightly larger decline in weekend #2 than its predecessors due to summer competition. They respectively fell 36% and 31% and I’ve got this pegged around 44%.

Ant-Man and the Wasp dropped to second in its sophomore frame and was swatted a bit harder than I figured at $29 million compared to my $33.4 million prediction. The MCU sequel stands at $133 million currently.

Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper opened below expectations in third with $24.9 million, well under my $33.2 million projection. Mixed reviews and (perhaps) a bit of overexposure for the star could have hurt it a bit.

Incredibles 2 was fourth with $16.2 million (I was close at $16.6 million) for a grand total of $535 million.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was right behind in fifth with $16.1 million (higher than my $14.2 million forecast) for $363 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: July 13-15

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Dwayne Johnson’s action pic Skyscraper debut this weekend in what could be an interesting battle for #1 and especially #2 at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/hotel-transylvania-3-summer-vacation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/skyscraper-box-office-prediction/

My low 40s estimate for Transylvania puts it in the pole position to top the charts. However, if it were to come in under expectations  and not reach the numbers of its predecessors, the door could be open for Ant-Man and the Wasp (in its sophomore frame) or Skyscraper to be a spoiler. It’s dangerous to underestimate the drawing potency of Johnson, but my low 30s projection for his latest puts Skyscraper in a razor-thin battle for #2 with Marvel’s latest.

Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom should be 4th and 5th.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top 5:

1. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million

3. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $33.2 million

4. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

Box Office Results (July 6-8) 

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is 20 for 20 as far as #1 openers as Ant-Man and the Wasp buzzed in with $75.8 million, falling under my $86.4 million projection. That debut is on the lower end of expectations for the sequel and ranks 16th out of 20 for MCU openers. That said, it still managed to gross nearly $20 million more than its 2015 predecessor for its start. I expect it to fall in the mid 50s in weekend #2, creating a photo finish with Skyscraper for the runner-up spot to Transylvania. 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom fell to second after two weeks on top with $28.6 million (I was close at $28.2 million) to brings it tally to $333 million.

Incredibles 2 was close behind in third with $28.4 million (I said $27.8 million) as the Pixar phenom crossed the $500 million mark at $503 million. In just four weeks, it is already the studio’s largest earner surpassing Finding Dory. 

The First Purge was fourth and continued the franchise’s run of high grosses compared to their low budgets. The Blumhouse horror pic took in $17.3 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend compared to my $22.8 million estimate. It opened on Wednesday and has taken in $31.2 million for the five-day overall. I was much closer on that figure with my $31.4 million prediction.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado took quite a hit in its second weekend. It was fifth after dropping 60% to $7.6 million (I was higher with $10.1 million). It’s total is $35 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 6-8

The first full weekend of July kicks off with the release of a sequel and a prequel: Marvel’s Ant–Man and the Wasp and Blumhouse’s The First Purge. You can peruse my detailed predictions on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/26/ant-man-and-the-wasp-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/27/the-first-purge-box-office-prediction/

The return of Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly in the MCU’s 20th offering should easily dominate the charts. I have Ant–Man achieving the MCU’s 14th largest haul with a mid 80s premiere.

As for The First Purge, the prequel and fourth series entry in six summers debuts on Wednesday. This has been a sturdy franchise and each subsequent feature has actually managed to out gross the previous one. I foresee a low to mid 20s three-day traditional weekend gross and low 30s for the five-day total. That forecast places the fourth Purge in fourth.

That could be a battle for the two spot as I see Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 experiencing similar earnings in their third and fourth weekends, respectively.

And in keeping with the all sequels/prequels theme, Sicario: Day of the Soldado should round out the top five. Here are my projections for the high-five:

1. Ant–Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $86.4 million

2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

3. Incredibles 2 

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

4. The First Purge

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $31.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (June 29-July 1)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had no trouble ruling the box office for a second weekend with $60.9 million in receipts (in line with my $62.1 million estimate). The dino sequel’s ten-day tally stands at $265 million.

Incredibles 2 continued its remarkable run in second with $46.4 million (I was lower at $42.8 million) for $440 million overall. The Pixar sequel is already the 2nd highest grossing picture from the studio and it should shortly surpass the $486 million earned by Finding Dory to become #1.

The good news for sequels kept on coming as Sicario: Day of the Soldado performed on the very high-end of expectations with $19 million, well exceeding my $13.8 million prediction.

Basketball comedy Uncle Drew opened in fourth with $15.2 million, just below my $16.4 million estimate. This debut was pretty much right in line with its tracking.

Ocean’s 8 rounded out the top five and continued its meager decline from week to week. It grossed $8.3 million (topping my $7 million projection) for $115 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 29-July 1

The basketball themed comedy Uncle Drew and crime thriller sequel Sicario: Day of the Soldado debut in theaters this weekend and they could battle it out for the third spot behind returning blockbusters Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newbies right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/uncle-drew-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/sicario-day-of-the-soldado-box-office-prediction/

Of the two newcomers, I am giving Drew the slight edge over Sicario. I also believe that if one of them over performs my estimate, it will be the former. My low to mid teens projections on both means Jurassic and Incredibles should easily maintain their 1-2 slots on the charts.

Kingdom came in on the higher end of expectations this weekend (more on that below) and now we move to how far it will drop. Its predecessor dipped just 49% in its sophomore frame after its (at the time) record-breaking $208 million opening. Kingdom should fall farther and I foresee a mid-high 50s decline.

The percentage drop for Incredibles 2 was more pronounced than I projected in weekend #2 and that should subside a bit this weekend (I’ll say 46%).

The women of Ocean’s 8 should round out the top five. And with that, those 5 estimates for the frame ahead:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $62.1 million

2. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

3. Uncle Drew

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

4. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

5. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (June 22-24)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom easily ruled the box office grossing $148 million out of the gate. I was a bit lower at $140.4 million. The dino sequel, as mentioned, performed on the higher end of expectations while earning $60 million less for its start than Jurassic World in 2015. Its debut gives it the fourth largest in 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Incredibles 2.

Speaking of Incredibles 2, it fell to second with $80.3 million and didn’t reach my forecast of $94.9 million. Its two-week total sits at an incredible $349 million.

Ocean’s 8 held up nicely in third with $11.5 million to bring its tally to a cool $100 million. I was a tad lower at $9.8 million.

Tag was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $7.7 million) for $30 million in two weeks.

Deadpool 2 took the five-spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to hit the triple century mark at $304 million.

Solo: A Star Wars Story was sixth at $4.5 million (I said $5.4 million) for $202 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 22-24

There’s only one new wide release this weekend, but it’s a big one as Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stomps into multiplexes. The sequel to the 2015 record breaker hopes to hold onto a large chunk of its predecessor’s audience. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/12/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-box-office-prediction/

Jurassic World took in an astonishing $208 million three summers ago (which set the opening weekend record until Star Wars: The Force Awakens snatched it away six months later). Kingdom is not expected to match that performance. My estimate has decreased from an initial prediction of just over $155 million last week to just over $140 million.

Incredibles 2 broke its own records this past weekend by smashing the all-time animated feature debut (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, the sequel to the 2004 Pixar superhero tale has turned into quite the event film. How much it dips in weekend #2 is an intriguing question. Looking at past sequels from the studio, 2010’s Toy Story 3 and 2016’s Finding Dory (the previous animated record holder) both fell 46%. Last summer’s Cars 3, which was a rare Pixar disappointment, fell a steeper 55%. It’s a legit question as to how front loaded Incredibles 2 is and whether it had a must-see factor in weekend #1. That said, repeat business could be strong even with the considerable dino competition. I’ll project a 48% drop, similar to 2017’s Beauty and the Beast. 

Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will surely dominate the charts this weekend as Ocean’s 8 and Tag should be third and fourth, respectively. The five-spot could be a battle between Solo and Deadpool 2 and I’ll give Han a slight edge. And with that, my top 6 predictions for the frame ahead:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $140.4 million

2. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $94.9 million

3. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Tag

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (June 15-17)

As mentioned, Incredibles 2 was indeed incredible this weekend as it obliterated the all-time animated feature record. The well-reviewed sequel took in $182.6 million, smashing the numbers of Finding Dory by nearly $50 million. That figure is good for the 8th largest domestic debut in history and that ranks third for 2018 (behind Marvel behemoths Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther). It, um, did a little better than my $138.1 million forecast… oops.

Ocean’s 8 was second in its sophomore outing with $18.9 million, coming in below my $21.2 million estimate. The heist caper has made $78 million thus far.

Newcomer comedy Tag was third with $14.9 million, faring slightly better than my $13.4 million projection. The Warner Bros pic performed right in line with expectations.

Solo: A Star Wars Story placed fourth with $10 million (above my $8.4 million prediction) for $193 million total.

Deadpool 2 rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) for $294 million overall.

Superfly debuted in sixth with $6.8 million and $9 million since its Wednesday roll out, managing to outpace my respective calls of $5.3 million and $7.2 million. I’d look for the crime remake to fade quickly.

Hereditary was seventh and it held up well for a horror release with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million) to bring its two-week earnings to $27 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…