This Friday, Disney continues their new trend of bringing some of their most known animated tales to life with Cinderella. Thor director Kenneth Branagh helms the production with Lily James in the title role and Cate Blanchett as The Wicked Stepmother. Helena Bonham Carter and Stellan Skarsgard round out the cast.
After two ho-hum weekends, Cinderella seems poised to shake the box office out of its slump. Reviews have been very strong and it currently stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. With hardly any competition, expect Disney to experience a strong weekend.
This past summer, Maleficent with Angelina Jolie (a Sleeping Beauty retelling) opened at $69 million on its way to a $241 million overall domestic haul. I feel Cinderella will come quite close to that number.
Cinderella opening weekend prediction: $67.8 million
The box office sees three new entries in the marketplace this Friday: Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi action pic Chappie, the Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business, and comedy/drama sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Chappie not easily topping the charts, though I’m predicting its opening falls under director Blomkamp’s first two efforts, District 9 and Elysium.
I’m predicting Marigold Hotel will actually slightly outdo Business, which is bad news for the Vince Vaughn flick considering it opens on about twice as many screens.
As for holdovers, while Will Smith’s Focus was #1 for the weekend, its debut was lackluster and I expect it to fall in the mid 40s during sophomore weekend. Current #2 Kingsman: The Secret Service should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Focus
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. Unfinished Business
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)
As mentioned, Will Smith’s caper pic Focus managed a first place opening, but not many bragging rights. It opened at $18.6 million, a bit below my $21.3M forecast. This represents the star’s second worst opening in 13 years, behind only the $14.8 million premiere of Seven Pounds in 2008. Smith is simply not the box office draw he once was and Focus, with its mixed reviews, proved that.
Kingsman remained in second place with $11.8 million, ahead of my $9.8M projection. The comic book based hit stands at $85.8M so far.
The SpongeBob movie took third with $10.8 million, above my $9.3M prediction. Its total is at a strong $139.9M.
Fifty Shades of Grey dropped to fourth after two weeks on top of the charts with $10.5 million, right on target with my $10.4M estimate. The three week total is at $147.3M.
Finally, new horror offering The Lazarus Effect failed to generate much audience interest with a ho-hum $10.2 million opening, a bit under my $11.6M prediction.
Three years ago, we saw a sleeper hit with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, the British comedy/drama which earned an unanticipated $46 million domestically. That was enough to warrant a sequel which opens wide Friday. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel features returning cast members Judi Dench, Bill Nighy, Maggie Smith, and Dev Patel (who’s pulling double duty this weekend with Chappie). Richard Gere and David Strathairn also join the mix.
Reviews have been mostly positive so far as it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes, just under the 78% earned by its predecessor. John Madden (the director not the sports dude) is back behind the camera. It would seem likely that this second helping may not quite match the numbers of the 2012 original stateside, but I still envision a fairly decent opening. I have this debuting a little higher than Unfinished Business, the Vince Vaughn comedy that opens against it. That’s bad news for Business, considering it premieres on roughly twice as many screens.
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
Three comedy performers known for appearing in successful raunchy R rated comedies headline Unfinished Business, out Friday. They are Vince Vaughn, Dave Franco, and of course, Tom Wilkinson (??). The picture follows the trio on a European business trip gone wrong. Sienna Miller costars.
While Vaughn and Franco have been involved in genre hits like Wedding Crashers and Neighbors, it’s very hard to imagine this entry joining that company or doing anywhere near their box office numbers. Commercials for Business have done little to inspire confidence. Vaughn, meanwhile, has been on a bit of a losing streak lately. His reunion with Wedding Crashers costar Owen Wilson, The Internship, petered out at only $44 million domestically. His last pic Delivery Man only earned $7.9 million out of the gate.
I simply don’t see Unfinished Business doing anything other than lackluster business in its debut and believe it too will fail to reach double digits for its premiere.
Unfinished Business opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
Before he takes over the storied Alien franchise, District 9 and Elysium director Neill Blomkamp brings his next sci fi offering to audiences this Friday with Chappie. The robot centric picture features Blomkamp regular Sharlto Copley as well as recognizable faces like Hugh Jackman, Sigourney Weaver, and Dev Patel.
In 2009, the director broke through in a big way with District 9, the sleeper hit which ended up with a Best Picture nomination. District made $37 million out of the gate with an eventual domestic take of $115 million. His 2013 follow-up Elysium with Matt Damon didn’t quite live up to expectations, at the multiplex or critically. Elysium opened at $29 million with a final tally of $93 million.
I anticipate that Chappie will continue the trend of diminishing returns in Blomkamp’s filmography before it is certain to tick back up when he enters Alien world. Chappie hasn’t done enough to set itself apart with its trailers and TV spots. Still, it’s debut should easily be enough to open at #1, but I anticipate a premiere of under $25 million.
Chappie opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million
For my Unfinished Business prediction, click here:
Two new pictures look to open in first and second this weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s con artist tale Focus and horror flick The Lazarus Effect with Olivia Wilde debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I expect the Focus opening to not nearly be in line with your typical Will Smith action or science fiction extravaganza, but it should be enough to propel it to #1. Lazarus should see just over double digits, which I’ll predict will allow it the runner-up position.
As for holdovers, Fifty Shades of Grey experienced a massive drop-off in its sophomore weekend (more on that below). Its second to third weekend fall shouldn’t be quite as drastic, though I expect it’ll continue to lose more than half its audience. Kingsman: The Secret Service and SpongeBob should both experience percentage declines in the mid 40s and round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the coming weekend:
1. Focus
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. The Lazarus Effect
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
3. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (February 20-22)
Everyone expected Fifty Shades of Grey to experience a precipitous decline in weekend #2, but 74% is a lot. The picture stayed #1, however, with $22.2 million – below my estimate of $29.2M. The erotic tale has grossed $129.1M so far.
Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $18.3 million in its second weekend and I predicted… $18.3M! Gold star! The comic book adaptation has made $67M and looks to top the century club.
SpongeBob was third in its third frame with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.8M projection and its total stands at $126.2M.
Of the three newbies over the weekend, the Kevin Costner sports drama fared the best, as I predicted. It made $11 million, just outshining my $9.7M prediction. With a reported budget of only $17M, this was a solid result.
Teen comedy The DUFF, another low budget offering at just $12 million, also did commendable business with $10.8 million, above my $7.9M estimate.
Oscar nominee American Sniper earned $10 million (right under my $11.1M projection) and the gargantuan total for it is at $320M.
Finally, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 tanked with a tepid $5.9 million, not matching my $8.3M prediction. While the original is a cult hit, audiences clearly weren’t clamoring for a follow-up and highly negative reviews didn’t assist.
Relativity Media is hoping moviegoers are ready for some horror flick action as The Lazarus Effect debuts Friday. The supernatural pic features Olivia Wilde and Evan Peters from American Horror Story in its cast.
Lazarus is likely to be pretty much review proof, as most horror genre material is. Still it’s tough to see this really breaking through. The TV spots are decent, but not terribly effective and there seems to be a lack of buzz being generated.
This could really tank and open in the same range as Dark Skies from two years ago in late February. It managed just $8 million out of the gate. I think Lazarus will reach double digits, though not by a lot.
The Lazarus Effect opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
Will Smith stars as a con artist alongside Wolf of Wall Street’s Margot Robbie in Focus, out Friday. The romantic comedic drama’s earning potential will rest solely on the Fresh Prince’s shoulders and it’s a legit question as to how strong that drawing power still is.
Of course from the mid 90s and the decade following, it was a different story with Smith. Films like Independence Day, Men in Black, Enemy of the State, I, Robot and Hitch were mega blockbusters. It has been two years since Big Willie Style headlined a film and it wasn’t a success story. M. Night Shyamalan’s sci fi dud After Earth took in just $60 million in the summer of 2013.
The expectations for Focus aren’t nearly as high as your typical fare starring Smith. In fact, I believe it will take in less with its opening than the aforementioned Earth. The budget is a surprisingly high $100 million, which means Warner Bros. is unlikely to see a return on their investment. Anything above $25 million would be decent, but I don’t see it reaching that.
Focus opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million
For my prediction on The Lazarus Effect, click here:
Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.
Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.
And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)
2. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. McFarland, USA
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
7. The DUFF
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (February 13-15)
Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.
Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.
Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.
American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.
No it’s not a biopic of the 90s MTV VJ who costarred in Dumb and Dumber, but rather a PG-13 comedy where the “DUFF” stands for Designated Ugly Fat Friend. The teen pic will try to bring in some younger viewers while Hot Tub Time Machine 2 will compete for a slightly older R rated audience as they open on the same day.
Recognizable actors such as Allison Janney and Ken Jeong are in the cast mixed in with some unknowns. I actually foresee the two comedies each debuting to similarly tepid results. The DUFF looks like a generic and non-descript feature and I feel audiences will respond accordingly. Like Hot Tub, I do not see this reaching double digits.
The DUFF opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
For my prediction on Hot Tub Time Machine 2, click here:
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