There’s a whole lot of talent involved with the Annie remake opening this Friday. Will Smith and Jay-Z are among the producers with Easy A and Friends with Benefits director Will Gluck behind the camera. Quevenzhane Wallis (who won critical acclaim for Beasts of the Southern Wild) plays the title role with Jamie Foxx, Cameron Diaz, Rose Byrne, and Bobby Cannavale rounding out the cast.
There’s a real question as to whether those big names will translate to big holiday box office though. Based loosely on the Broadway play and 1982 picture, the film trades its Depression era setting for modern day NYC. So far, reviews have been far from kind. There’s also the matter of serious family competition in the form of Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.
Sony Pictures is hoping for a healthy debut to divert attention away from its considerable hacking scandal. It could be wishful thinking. I believe Annie won’t even reach $20 million out of the gate for a lackluster start.
Annie opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
The Hobbit isn’t the only trilogy coming to an end next weekend as Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb opens Friday. Ben Stiller is back headlining a cast that includes Owen Wilson, Ricky Gervais, Dick Van Dyke, Steve Coogan, Rebel Wilson, and the late Robin Williams and Mickey Rooney. Shawn Levy returns to direct.
It’s been five years since the second installment of the franchise which debuted to a $54 million gross on its way to a $177M domestic gross. That sequel’s opening overshadowed the $30 million rollout of the 2006 original, but it ended up with a higher overall haul of $250M.
Competition is fierce as some youngsters may take in The Hobbit while others (particularly girls) may spend the weekend watching Annie. There’s another factor: many of the kids who were fans of the first two are now older teenagers and above whose interest has perhaps waned.
Add all that up and I’ll predict Secret of the Tomb sets a low bar for the franchise and takes it out on a rather low note. I believe it won’t manage even half of what the second picture opened at.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million
For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, click here:
Over a decade after he wrapped up his historic and Oscar winning Lord of the Rings trilogy, director Peter Jackson wraps up his Hobbit trilogy with The Battle of the Five Armies, out Wednesday.
Moviegoers have been treated to a Hobbit pic around Christmas time for the last three years. 2012’s An Unexpected Journey opened to $84 million on its way to a $303M domestic haul. Last year’s The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t match that number. It debuted to $73 million with an eventual $258M gross. There is some reason to believe Armies could outdo at least Smaug.
For starters, it’s the last of the series which could pique interest for some audience members wishing to bid the franchise a farewell. Reviews have been pretty solid and it sits at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Many high profile critics have gone out of their way to proclaim it the best and most exciting of the trilogy.
Unlike its predecessors, Armies premieres on a Wednesday so a five day prediction is in order. I’ll predict that its five day haul gets over what Journey managed in three days while its Friday to Sunday gross marks the lowest of the franchise due to the expanded rollout.
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies opening weekend prediction: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my prediction on Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, click here:
The second week of December sees the debut of two new films as Ridley Scott’s Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings and Chris Rock’s acclaimed comedy Top Five enter the marketplace. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Despite very mixed reviews, Exodus should have no problem topping the charts. Top Five is likely to post a healthy debut opening on a relatively small 975 screens and should battle for the number two spot with three week reigning champ The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Family holdovers Penguins of Madagascar and Big Hero 6 should round out the “top five”.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend:
1. Exodus: Gods and Kings
Predicted Gross: $35.5 million
2. Top Five
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Penguins of Madagascar
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
Box Office Results (December 5-7)
As expected, the first week of December was a quiet one before some of the holiday season’s heavy hitters drop. The Hunger Games stayed #1 in its third frame with $21.7 million, right on pace with my $21.9M estimate. The three-quel has earned $257M so far.
Penguins of Madagascar was second with $10.9 million in weekend two, below my $13.3M prediction. The animated Dreamworks tale has been a financial disappointment, earning just $49M so far. It’s unlikely to even reach $100M.
Another lackluster sequel in its 2nd weekend was third as Horrible Bosses 2 earned $8.4 million, a bit above my $7.2M projection. It’s made $35M at press time.
Big Hero 6 was fourth with $8.1 million – not matching my $10.5M estimate. The profitable Disney animated pic stands at $177M. In fifth was Interstellar with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.6M prediction. It’s total is at $158M.
Finally, the barely promoted horror flick The Pyramid opened ninth with $1.3 million. That’s not exactly impressive, but it did manage to top my estimate of $977,000.
Chris Rock is back in headlining mode as Top Five enters theaters this Friday. The acclaimed comedian wrote and directed the comedy and he stars as well. The supporting cast includes Gabrielle Union, Rosario Dawson, Kevin Hart, Tracy Morgan, and Cedric the Entertainer.
Top Five has garnered the approval of the critical community and it stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. As for Rock, he’s been in supporting mode for the greater part of this decade as he played second fiddle to Adam Sandler and others in the Grown Ups series. Prior to that, he’s seen some decent successes with solo ventures including Down to Earth and Head of State.
Positive word of mouth and reviews should help Top Five open to a solid start. What will limit it is the fact that it’s debuting on a relatively low 975 screens. It should still manage to surpass double digits out of the gate.
Top Five opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
For my Exodus: Gods and Kings prediction, click here:
Ridley Scott unveils his $140 million Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings this Friday and it’s expected to end the three week reign of The Hunger Games at the box office. How much it makes is an intriguing question.
Christian Bale headlines the tale as Moses with Sigourney Weaver, Ben Kingsley, Joel Edgerton, John Turturro, and Aaron Paul rounding out the cast. Director Scott has seen massive success with ancient tales that include Gladiator but also some failures, which includes Kingdom of Heaven.
Reviews have been very mixed with several being downright negative. It currently stands at 43% on Rotten Tomatoes. Biblical epics, by their nature, often generate controversy and Exodus is no exception. As I see it, the studio would probably love to see Exodus match the $43 million that Noah opened at in March of this year. That is definitely a possibility, but my prediction reflects a belief that Exodus may open around the $34 million that Gladiator accomplished in 2000. I’ll say it gets over that, but not by much.
Exodus: Gods and Kings opening weekend prediction: $35.5 million
The first weekend of December/post Thanksgiving frame is typically a sluggish one at the box office. Studios are waiting to release their December heavy hitters while it’s just leftovers to moviegoers to munch and catch up on. 2014 should be no exception, especially following a surprisingly lackluster Turkey Day weekend.
There are no new wide releases coming out. Only the barely marketed horror pic The Pyramid opens semi-wide on approximately 550 screens and I’ll predict it doesn’t even crack a million bucks. My official prediction is $977,000 – far outside the top five.
Additionally, this weekend usually means rather large drops for holdovers after the holiday weekend. Seeing that, I predict the top five not changing at all with their grosses being quite a bit lower.
My predictions for the weekend are:
1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)
2. Penguins of Madagascar
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
3. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. Horrible Bosses 2
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)
Katniss and company easily ruled the holiday weekend as Mockingjay – Part 1 took in $56.9 million over the Friday to Sunday portion, on par with my $57.9M estimate. Over the five day, it made $82.6 million, just under my $85.7M prediction. The third entry in the franchise stands at $225 million currently and while it’s doing just fine, it will be the lowest grosser of the series thus far.
Dreamworks animated Penguins of Madagascar posted an unimpressive opening with $25.4 million over the three day and $35.4 million for the five day. This is well below my $40.1M and $54.7M projections. Whether it was the direct competition from Big Hero 6 or something else, family audiences simply didn’t come out for this one on the expected level.
Its aforementioned competitor Big Hero 6 was third in weekend #4 with $18.8 million (Friday to Sunday) and $25 million (Wednesday to Sunday) – in line with my respective $17M and $24.8M estimates. The hit Disney ‘toon has amassed $167M at press time.
Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar held up nicely in its fourth weekend with $15.7 million for the weekend and $21.9 million for the five day. This is considerably better than my projections of $10.9M and $15.5M. The space saga is at $147M and should still struggle to reach $200M.
Finally, Horrible Bosses 2 performed a giant belly flop. It managed an embarrassing fifth place debut with just $15.4 million for the three day and $22.7 million for the five. This is far under my respective estimates of $28.6M and $38.3M. Perhaps audiences had their fill of badly reviewed comedy sequels with Dumb and Dumber To. The sequel couldn’t even manage to earn in five days what the original made in three out of the gate ($28M). Not good.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
The term “leftovers” has some real meaning as sequels are likely to populate the top three slots of the Thanksgiving 2014 box office. Penguins of Madagascar and Horrible Bosses 2 will both attempt to unseat The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 for the top spot. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:
As I see it, Hunger Games should manage to stay #1, despite the fact that it opened considerably below its two predecessors (more on that below). I expect a drop just over 50%, just like last year’s Catching Fire. Holdovers Big Hero 6 and Interstellar should round out the top five and experience small declines due to the holiday frame.
Since it’s a long holiday weekend, I’ll do the top five predictions for both the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and extended Wednesday to Sunday five day:
1. The Hunger Games – Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $57.9 million (Fri to Sun), $85.7 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 52%
2. Penguins of Madagascar
Predicted Gross: $40.1 million (Fri to Sun), $54.7 million (Wed to Sun)
3. Horrible Bosses 2
Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (Fri to Sun), $38.3 million (Wed to Sun)
4. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $17 million (Fri to Sun), $24.8 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 15%
5. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Fri to Sun), $15.5 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 30%
Box Office Results (November 21-23)
It was a fascinating opening for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. As expected, it managed the largest opening of 2014 with $122.6 million, easily besting the $100M that Transformers: Age of Extinction took in this summer. However, it was easily the lowest opening of the franchise by nearly $30M. This means it came in well below my generous $155.8M prediction. One must wonder if there’s some franchise fatigue here and it remains to be seen how the third entry in the series holds up in subsequent weekends.
Big Hero 6 was second with $20.1 million, a bit below my $22.4M projection. The Disney hit has taken in $135M so far and should find its way past $200M and more.
Interstellar was third with $15.3 million, just below my $16.3M estimate. The Christopher Nolan pic stands at $120M and is likely to struggle to reach $200M.
Dumb and Dumber To fell hard from the top spot with $14 million in its sophomore frame, below my $16M prediction. It’s earned $57M so far and is unlikely to reach $100M.
Gone Girl was fifth with $2.8 million, just under my $3.2M estimate. Its total is at $156M. Beyond the Lights was sixth in weekend #2 with $2.6 million, under my $3.3M projection. It’s made just $10M.
That’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your turkey and, hopefully, a movie!
Dreamworks Animation rolls out a spin-off of their popular Madagascar franchise with Penguins of Madagascar, out Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving box office weekend. Featuring the voices of Benedict Cumberbatch, John Malkovich, and Ken Jeong, Penguins will have some competition with the third weekend of Big Hero 6 still bringing family audiences in.
Still, the history of the Madagascar pictures is a profitable one. The original in 2005 debuted to $47 million on its way to a $193M domestic gross. The follow-up, 2008’s Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, opened with $63 million for an eventual $180M take. 2012’s Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted got off to a $60 million start and then a franchise best $216M overall gross.
Penguins is unlikely to reach the heights of the two last two entries out of the gate, but I’ll predict it tops the $50M mark for its Turkey Day five-day premiere.
Penguins of Madagascar opening weekend prediction: $40.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $54.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my prediction on Horrible Bosses 2, click here:
The Turkey Day box office frame showcases a sequel to a well regarded comedy that came out three and a half years ago as Horrible Bosses 2 opens Wednesday. Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, and Charlie Day are back along with returnees Jennifer Aniston, Jamie Foxx, and Kevin Spacey. Newbies Christoph Waltz and Chris Pine join the fray as well.
In the summer of 2011, the original Bosses debuted to a robust $28 million on its way to a $117M domestic take. Those grosses were strong enough to warrant this sequel. Reviews have not been on its side as it currently holds a tepid 11% on Rotten Tomatoes (compared to its predecessor’s 69% rating). However, its opening weekend should be somewhat critic proof before lackluster word of mouth could cause large drop-offs in future weekends. After all, bad reviews didn’t hurt Dumb and Dumber To one bit.
I’ll predict Horrible Bosses 2 opens with just about what the first did for its Friday to Sunday frame while inching close to $40M for the five-day frame.
Horrible Bosses 2 opening weekend prediction: $28.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $38.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Penguins of Madagascar prediction, click here:
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